WinStar TDN Derby Top 20 for May 2

by T.D. Thornton

With Wednesday's draw looming for the GI Kentucky Derby, this is how the TDN Top 20 contenders shake out as an aggregate:

• The No. 1 and No. 2 colts on this list both possess the shimmering, raw potential that suggests either one could be capable of pulling off a crop-defining Derby win with enough momentum moving forward to be a legitimate Triple Crown threat.

• Nos. 3, 4, and 5 in the rankings are all professional and polished enough to demonstrate Derby-winning ability on their best days.

• Between Nos. 6 and 12 you have a solid tier of contenders who have the ability to make a big leap forward, perhaps into the winner's circle if other variables and breaks go their way.

• From No. 13 on down, you have to do a fair amount of creative handicapping to paint plausible scenarios that culminate with a blanket of roses draped around those horses on Saturday.

Please note that the rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard that Churchill Downs will use to determine actual starting berths; that list can be accessed here.

1. (Apr. 18 Rank: 1) ALWAYS DREAMING (c, Bodemeister—Above Perfection, by In Excess {Ire})

O-Brooklyn Boyz Stables, Teresa Viola Racing Stables et al. B-Santa Rosa Partners (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-3-1-1, $648,900.

Last Start: 1st, GI Xpressbet Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 100

Always Dreaming is riding the crest of the crop at a crucial time, although being a lightly raced Derby favorite is not without its perils. He gets high marks not only for what he's accomplished (only Derby entrant to have won two nine-furlong races), but the manner in which he's done it–his scintillating score in the Florida Derby was by far the most visually impressive of all the nine-furlong Kentucky Derby preps. Always Dreaming comes out of the gate running, responds well when cued to settle, slips into an intimidating stalk mode in seemingly effortless manner, and always appears in sync with jockey John Velazquez, extending fluidly and solidly when roused for the drive. He has a presence that belies his lack of seasoning (five starts overall; three tries to break maiden), but at this point on the Triple Crown trail, the true promise of a potential superstar hinges more on what he can produce advancing forward than what has been on his résumé since debuting last July 1. If you like him in the betting, be aware that his status as a “headline horse” is going to cost you a point or two in the mutuels, especially since his final five-furlong bullet (1/35) workout last Friday (:59.60) is getting wide play as a monster move, and trainer Pletcher used colorful phrasing to describe how the colt “demolished” his breakfast afterwards. He's the horse to beat on Saturday, for certain. Just don't make the mistake of thinking he's unbeatable.

2. (2) IRISH WAR CRY (c, Curlin">Curlin—Irish Sovereign, by Polish Numbers)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Isabelle de Tomaso (NJ). T-H. Graham Motion. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-4-0-0, $699,460.

Last Start: 1st, GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 8

Accomplishments: 1st, GII Lambholm South Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4, 1st, Marylander S., LRL, Jan. 23

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Irish War Cry

KY Derby Points: 110

Have you noticed that much of the talk involving the projected Derby pace and the likely tactics of this year's speedsters seems to involve backing off and not letting 'em rip straight from the gate? I'd love to see a sneak attack of sorts from Irish War Cry. Although trainer Motion has been attempting to get him to settle, why risk stalling the colt behind horses when his top tactical weapon could be to establish an assertive early lead as soon as they spring the latch and then let the rest of the cavalry charge try to catch him if they can? I was especially impressed with his wire-to-wire Holy Bull S. win, in which this 'TDN Rising Star's defining moment came when he quickened away from juvenile champ Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile) without being asked before bounding home willingly, with a nice reach, fluid extension, and plenty left in the tank. He's since thrown in a clunker (Fountain of Youth S. seventh), but then rebounded smartly with an emphatic dismantling of the Wood Memorial field in his final Derby prep. The comeback of jockey Rajiv Maragh from a devastating racing accident, the prudent, erudite conditioning methodologies of trainer Motion, and the low-key historical significance of the New Jersey-bred colt's owner/breeder all make for terrific storylines leading into the Derby. But none of that should overshadow the raw, pure talent of Irish War Cry himself, because that could end up being the dominant motif if he delivers the elite performance that I believe is within the scope of his ability going ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

3. (3) MCCRAKEN (c, Ghostzapper">Ghostzapper—Ivory Empress, by Seeking the Gold)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY). T-Ian R. Wilkes. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-4-0-1, $410,848.

Last Start: 3rd, GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 11, 1st, GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 26, 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 30

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on McCraken

KY Derby Points: 40

The colts ranked above McCraken, Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry, earned their top spots based on flash, panache, and my perception that each could be capable of delivering far more than we've seen so far. McCraken, on the other hand, has been solidly ranked at or near the top of the TDN Top 20 since January based on consistency, reliability, and the way he executed his job with professionalism while going undefeated through his first four starts. “A lot of horses have the talent, but they don't have the class. This horse has the class,” said trainer Wilkes. “You can have all the talent in the world, but if they can't handle the pressure, that's the difference. The horse with class can handle the pressure and get better.” You have to consider his subpar third in the Blue Grass S. an anomaly if you're to have full confidence in this 'TDN Rising Star' moving forward, and I agree with Wilkes's assessment that missed training and a missed prep (strained ankle) earlier in the season caused McCraken to bounce at Keeneland. “I feel like he is back into his rhythm,” Wilkes said after Sunday's 1:00.80 breeze (10/33) at Churchill Downs. “The Blue Grass was a little different for him in that he was fresh and didn't switch leads and that took away from his punch.” McCraken has previously displayed a keen sense of being in control without being overly aggressive, and he has the ability to shift smoothly into multiple gears when asked. It's also a huge plus that he's 3-for-3 over the Churchill strip.

4. (5) CLASSIC EMPIRE (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief)

O-John C. Oxley. B-Steven & Brandi Nicholson (KY). T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $475,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-5-0-1, $2,120,220.

Last Start: 1st, GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5, 1st, GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 8, 1st, GIII Bashford Manor S., CD, July 2.

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Classic Empire

KY Derby Points: 132

If he wins the Derby, Classic Empire will certainly be able to provide an “overcoming adversity” storyline ripe with cinematic arc: The 2-year-old champ, known to be a bit of a head case, falls on hard times early in his 3-year-old season, recovers from a foot abscess only to develop a mysterious back ailment that presumably makes him not want to train, then redeems himself in the very last prep race of the season by storming to victory in impressive fashion. So how will the next chapter–the Kentucky Derby itself–turn out? There's no question where trainer Casse stands on the issue. “His work gave me chills,” Casse said after last Thursday's :49.20 half-mile breeze (47/84) at Churchill Downs. “I said a couple months ago when everyone was giving us a tough time, this is like a baseball game. It doesn't matter how many runs you score, it just matters if you're ahead in the last inning. I feel like we have the bases loaded.” Based solely on the visual aspect of his Arkansas Derby win, Classic Empire looked like he could have run straight over the competition rather than past them if he had wanted to. But when you factor in the quality of who he beat, the prognostication gets murky: The tired 2-3-4 horses that Classic Empire blew by in deep stretch were all double-digit long shots, and the other three horses out of the Arkansas Derby that are advancing to Churchill have won zero races combined in 2017. His company through the lane in Louisville will be far more formidable, but if Classic Empire has truly reverted to the prime form that he displayed in winning the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he is more than capable of slugging it out with the division's best.

5. (11) TAPWRIT (c, Tapit—Appealing Zophie, by Successful Appeal)

O-Bridlewood Farm, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Robert V. LaPenta. B-My Meadowview, LLC (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $1,200,000 Ylg '15 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-1-0, $343,902.

Last Start: 5th, GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 11, 1st, Pulpit S., GP, Dec. 10

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 54

Of all the Derby contenders who are capable of improving big-time if you factor in what I call the “magic eraser” component, Tapwrit stands to benefit most. Basically, that means I'm willing to forgive his flat and uninspiring fifth in the Blue Grass S.–even his trainer has conceded he doesn't really know what the excuse was–and basically erase it, render it invisible, and pretend it doesn't exist in his past-performance block. I'm willing to do that because I'm convinced this $1.2 million gray is talented, assertive, and adaptable enough to be able to mix things up with the division's top 3-year-olds and come out on top in one of these Triple Crown races. Beyond a general gut feeling that there's more under the hood that we haven't yet seen, I specifically liked his winning Tampa Bay Derby tactics: Tapwrit looked confident jostling for position through the clubhouse turn, comfortably switched into cruise mode at the back of the main flight, willingly repositioned himself when cued by jockey Jose Ortiz entering the far turn, then sliced deftly between foes five-sixteenths out while remaining focused under measured encouragement through the lane. Also bear in mind that after debuting in a seven-furlong sprit at Saratoga last September, Tapwrit has been racing exclusively at a mile or longer, and all three of his 2017 starts have been at either 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles–a foundation that will be to his benefit on Derby Day.

6. (13) GUNNEVERA (c, Dialed In—Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled)

O-Peacock Racing Stables, LLC. B-Brandywine Farm & Stephen Upchurch (KY). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $16,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-2-0, $1,075,200.

Last Start: 3rd, GI Xpressbet Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Xpressbet Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4; 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot S., DED, Nov. 19; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 14

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gunnevera

KY Derby Points: 84

I ran down the list of the TDN Top 20 Derby contenders in an attempt to identify horses that instilled in me a high degree of confidence that they would be firing in the final furlong, and Gunnevera was the only name that truly stood out in terms of durability and stamina. Having said that, I still perceive him as more of a hits-the-board threat than an all-out win candidate. Yet in many Derbies, just finishing with willing encouragement when all the other foes are tiring in the final hundred yards is enough to get a horse draped in a blanket of roses, and that could happen to Gunnevera too, provided pace and traffic scenarios align perfectly for this one-run stayer. It's promising to see that newly elected Hall-of-Famer Javier Castellano will be partnering with Gunnevera in the Derby (Castellano didn't truly commit until late in the campaign because he had calls on two other contenders, but he has been aboard for all three of the colt's graded stakes victories). Ignore Gunnevera at your own peril in vertical Derby bets–just don't mortgage the farm keying him on top.

7. (16) HENCE (c, Street Boss—Floating Island, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-1, $542,601.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Sunland Derby, SUN, Mar. 26

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 50

Downs since winning the Sunland Derby. Yet his stock has inched upward during his time between starts because his New Mexico company line got boosted by a win and a second by Irap (Tiznow) and Conquest Mo Money (Uncle Mo), respectively, in the Blue Grass S. and Arkansas Derby. With a foundation of five straight races at a mile or more, Beyer Speed Figures that have improved in every career race, and the addition of the capable Florent Geroux picking up the mount for the Derby, Hence has all the makings of an off-the-radar contender who could pose an unforeseen threat at a vastly inflated mutuel on Derby Day. His last two running lines indicate a comfort level with rating from the back of the pack, but I'd be intrigued to see what he might be able to do if he got into the action a little bit earlier in the race. He was an effective second, beaten only a neck, over the Churchill strip going a one-turn mile as a juvenile when he was on the lead for most of the race, and when he broke his maiden in the slop at Oaklawn in February he stalked throughout, never more than 4 3/4 lengths out of the hunt.

8. (7) BATTLE OF MIDWAY (c, 3, Smart Strike–Rigoletta, by Concerto)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Fox Hill Farms, Inc. B-Thor-Bred Stables, LLC (KY). T-Jerry Hollendorfer. Sales History: $410,000 Ylg '15 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-2-1-1, $290,000.

Last Start: 2nd, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 40

Don't use Battle of Midway's frontrunning tendency in the Santa Anita Derby as a guide to where he'll placed early on in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Hollendorfer told XBTV after the 'TDN Rising Star' worked six furlongs in 1:13.40 at Santa Anita last Friday that he has been teaching the colt to sit behind horses and wait for his jockey's cue in his last two workouts. He added that Battle of Midway only ended up as the rail pacemaker in a three-way go in the Santa Anita Derby because the colt broke so well and otherwise would have been shuffled back on the fence. “I don't plan on being on the front end in the Derby … We'd like to probably be somewhere off the pace,” Hollendorfer explained. The exact strategy will be up to jockey Flavien Prat, who re-inherits the mount in the Derby (as one of four different jockeys to have ridden Battle of Midway in his four career races). Although light on experience, Battle of Midway is a Jan. 30 foal who has demonstrated the ability to withstand pace pressure while shifting smoothly into additional gears, and he is not to be overlooked as a very live “sleeper” in the Derby picture. While not the top candidate to win, Battle of Midway (depending on his post draw) could wind up as the best value play in the mutuels.

9. (4) GIRVIN (c, Tale of Ekati—Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)

O-Brad Grady. B-Bob Austin & John Witte (KY). T-Joe Sharp. Sales History: $140,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP; $130,000 Ylg '15 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-1-0, $874,400.

Last Start: 1st, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Apr. 1

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 150

Girvin has been downgraded from spot No. 4 since the last installment of the TDN Top 20 after a quarter crack was discovered in his right front hoof Apr. 19. He's been fitted with a special bar shoe and utilized hyperbaric chambers and swimming amenities before finally getting in a twice-postponed five-eighths breeze in :59.60 (2/16) at Keeneland on Saturday. “He worked extremely well and cooled out great,” said trainer Sharp. “Every day the foot has been better and better, but typically this kind of issue does improve like that.” While the quarter crack itself can certainly be overcome (and let's be realistic–any of the other 19 Derby contenders could be facing similar nagging ailments that have not yet been made public), the combination of missed training and my previous skepticism about the not-very-deep stakes fields Girvin beat in his Fair Grounds preps have eroded my level of trust in him to some degree. On the plus side, Girvin kept stretching out and winning through his first four career races, doing everything that was asked of him in capable, relaxed fashion. He has admirable tactical speed, and partnering with unflappable big-money rider Mike Smith is bound to be a positive. But he will still have to make another leap forward in terms of ability if he's to win the Derby, and the gap to victory has widened a little more over the past two weeks.

10. (6) GORMLEY (c, Malibu Moon—Race to Urga, by Bernstein)

O-Mr. & Mrs. Jerome Moss. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-4-0-0, $920,000.

Last Start: 1st, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Oct. 6, 1st, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 7.

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gormley

KY Derby Points: 125

Like several contenders, Gormley falls under the “still learning how to rate” category, and the 20-horse Derby is always a dicey challenge to find out whether or not a young colt has figured out not to waste precious energy by fighting the rider. It took no small feat of manhandling by jockey Victor Espinoza to get Gormley to take a back seat en route to winning the Santa Anita Derby, and Gormley did not exactly leave the impression that he was comfortable doing so. He was wrangled back behind a three-way go, and Espinoza admitted that he had to “jerk him one time, a bit harder than I wanted” to get him to settle. Yet Espinoza, who has been the exclusive workout and race partner for Gormley since before the colt's first start, sees improvement in the mornings that might not yet be evident to the rest of us. “Since the last race, I see him as a different horse,” Espinoza told XBTV. “I always believed in him, that he'd run better off the pace.” Gormley has been capably competing in two-turn graded stakes races since Oct. 1, and his only two defeats were to then-kingpins Classic Empire and Mastery (Candy Ride {Arg}). Showing up and doing his job in workmanlike fashion has gotten Gormley into the gate for the Derby. But I suspect actually winning it will require that he not only respond kindly to rating, but come up with an additional element of overdrive that we have not yet seen Gormley uncork in his races.

11. (9) PRACTICAL JOKE (c, Into Mischief—Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor)

O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. & William H. Lawrence. B-Whispering Oaks (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $135,000 Ylg '15 KEEJAN; $240,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-3-2-0, $1,015,800.

Last Start: 2nd, GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Hopeful S., SAR, Sept. 5; 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 8.

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 74

There was plenty of buzz about Practical Joke as a 2-year-old. The athletic bay won his first three races, including two Grade I stakes. Then he ran a respectable third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile before being given a freshening leading to a spring campaign consisting of a pair of decent seconds in two well-stocked Derby preps. In both the Fountain of Youth and the Blue Grass S., Practical Joke moved a touch too soon, which is fine in and of itself because those five- and four-furlong sustained runs likely served a useful learning purpose. But it's difficult to get a true read on whether this colt is being ultra-patiently primed to peak precisely on Derby Day or if he's stuck on a development plateau and simply hitting the board is the best he's capable of at Classic distances. It's not inconceivable that Practical Joke unleashes a big, powerful breakout race in the Derby. I just wouldn't bet serious money that he will. This colt is winless since Oct. 8 and has never won a two-turn race at any level (that latter distinction is shared by five other horses among the TDN Top 20). After a 1:01.60 breeze (19/35) in blinkers last Friday, trainer Brown said, “We wanted to explore the small-cup blinker with him … I'll think about it a little more but I'm leaning toward running him with them … He wasn't too aggressive but he seemed a little more focused through the lane. He got away from his workmate in the gallop out, willingly, which we wanted to see.”

12. (10) J BOYS ECHO (c, Mineshaft">Mineshaft—Letgomyecho, by Menifee)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Albaugh Family Stable. B-Betz/Blackburn/J. Betz/Ramsby/CNHHHNK (KY). T-Dale L. Romans. Sales History: $485,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-1, $349,600.

Last Start: 4th, GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 4

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on J Boys Echo

KY Derby Points: 63

J Boys Echo has a Jekyll-and-Hyde type of profile leading up to the Derby. If he runs back to his 102 Beyer Speed Figure win in the Gotham S., look out. If he throws in another no-show try without an obvious excuse like in the Blue Grass S., he'll end up double-digit lengths behind the Derby winner. “He is a blue-collar horse, he just gets out and does what he needs to,” trainer Romans said of his $485,000 yearling. “The best scenario for us in the Derby is there is a lot of speed. We'll settle back toward the middle of the pack, get a clean trip like Mine That Bird (Birdstone) did a few years ago and hopefully come running at the end.” It will be interesting how literally Romans intends to instruct jockey Luis Saez on strategy when referring to that 50-1 Derby upsetter, because Mine That Bird was dead last, 16 lengths off the pace, and required the open-rail trip of a lifetime to win the 2009 Run for the Roses. It's entirely plausible that the proverbial light bulb goes on and this 'TDN Rising Star' puts everything together to win the Derby on Saturday. But Romans has indicated for months now that J Boys Echo is not the easiest horse to train, and when a conditioner's pre-race Derby talk largely centers more on the need for ideal pace and trip conditions rather than the specific, positive merits of the horse himself, I tend to back away from ranking such entrants as serious win threats.

13. (17) IRAP (c, Tiznow—Silken Cat, by Storm Cat)

O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Aaron & Marie Jones (KY). T-Doug F. O'Neill. Sales History: $140,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP; $300,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 8-1-3-1, $772,600.

Last Start: 1st, GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 113

Irap ran the race of his life to break his maiden against the deepest (on paper at least) Derby prep field. Following that 31-1 upset in the Blue Grass S., he'll now be required to top that effort by coming up with yet another career-best performance if he is to finish anywhere within sniffing distance of the division's best in the 20-horse Derby. That's an improbable task, but not impossible. In Irap's favor is his last-out Beyer fig of 93, which puts him in the same ballpark as winning efforts by Classic Empire (94) and Girvin (91), and ahead of Gormley (88). Without fanfare, Irap has built a respectable foundation of seven consecutive route races going back to last fall (including two tries at nine furlongs), and his connections certainly have been-there-done-that recency going for them, as the owner/trainer/jockey combo of Reddam/O'Neill/Gutierrez scored in last year's Derby with Nyquist (Uncle Mo).

14. (N/A) LOOKIN AT LEE (c, Lookin At Lucky—Langara Lass, by Langfuhr)

O-L and N Racing. B-Ray Hanson (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $70,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & MGISP, 9-2-2-2, $452,795.

Last Start: 3rd, GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Ellis Park Juvenile S., ELP, Aug. 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 32

Lookin At Lee will enter the Derby despite being winless since Aug. 6 of his two-year-old season when he scored in a $75,000 sprint stakes at Ellis Park. This one-run closer got a reputation as a bit of a hard-luck horse after having drawn the extreme outside post in three of his first four graded stakes attempts, and he has finished a respectable second, third, and fourth in three tries behind juvenile champ Classic Empire. But despite two third-place tries from three starts at Oaklawn this winter/spring, he hasn't sparked to life as a menacing win threat for the Kentucky Derby, and he still has never won a route race at any level. His trainer however, doesn't list those liabilities as concerns, preferring to focus on the positives that are evident to him. “The one thing we feel very good about with Lookin at Lee is if you look at the field, you see a lot of truly talented horses, but not a lot of experience,” Asmussen rationalized. “There's a lot of variables there. With 'Lee,' you've eliminated all of that. He's well-seasoned. He's at his best right now. His last race in the Arkansas Derby was his fastest from a numbers standpoint. We're all excited about running him a mile and a quarter.”

15. (N/A) UNTRAPPED (c, Trappe Shot—Exit Three, by Giant's Causeway)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael Langford. B-Indian Creek & Jonathan Sheppard (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-1-3-1, $256,800.

Last Start: 6th, GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 34

Untrapped is going to sneak into the Derby based on qualifying points, but he really hasn't lived up to the potential he demonstrated in career start number two last November at Churchill, when he earned 'TDN Rising Star' status by romping by 5 1/2 lengths as the 6-5 favorite. Since then he's been second, second, third, then sixth in Derby preps that were on the weaker side at both Fair Grounds and Oaklawn. The addition of blinkers provided no real spark in the Arkansas Derby, and his jockey in that race, Mike Smith, has since jumped ship to Girvin. Ricardo Santana Jr. will pick up the mount, and although he's not a Hall-of-Famer like Smith, he is a more aggressive rider, which might be what this colt needs (Santana has previously been aboard for Untrapped's better efforts).

16. (18) PATCH (Union Rags—Windyindy, by A.P. Indy)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-1-2-0.

Last Start: 2nd, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Apr. 1

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 40

Patch has the makings breeding-wise to be a nice horse and he's shown flashes of ability while compiling a 1-2-0 record from three starts, but he gives the impression that he's in a bit in over his head for his Derby assignment, and his chances fall under the “Why not take a shot?” heading. He has yet to win beyond the maiden ranks, did not race at age two, and 10 furlongs will be a sizable challenge considering his only/longest victory was a one-turn mile at Gulfstream. Patch's draw in a 20-horse field will also be critical because he does not have a functioning left eye, and thus cannot see on his rail side. Big Brown (Boundary) in 2008 and the legendary filly Regret in 1915 are the only two Derby winners since 1900 to win the Run for the Roses off of only three previous starts. Both were favored at around 5-2 odds; Patch's price will be significantly longer on Saturday. On the plus side, his Louisiana Derby second was a quietly solid effort–Patch was always in touch with the main flight of the field while rating comfortably at the fence, and he did gallop out past winner Girvin after finishing with good courage.

17. (19) STATE OF HONOR (c, To Honor and Serve—State Cup, by Elusive Quality)

O-Conrad Farms. B-Manfred & Penny Conrad (ON). T-Mark E. Casse. Lifetime Record: GISP, 10-1-4-2, $382,548.

Last Start: 2nd, GI Xpressbet Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 62

State of Honor has had a little bit of everything thrown his way while building up a foundation of ten career tries. Early on he switched between a synthetic surface and turf, and also sprinting versus routing. Pace-wise, they've tried him on the lead and stalking. He's worn blinkers and then had them removed. Yet after all this experimentation, it's Derby time and State of Honor still has not elevated himself past the level of being a hard-trying horse who gets a little keyed up in his races; one who on his best days is capable of firing a Beyer somewhere around 90. That's been good enough to often land second or third (1-4-2 record from those 10 tries), and it's enabled State of Honor to rack up sufficient leaderboard points to enter the Derby. But you would have to optimistically project a tremendous upsurge in talent to envision this colt wearing a blanket of roses early Saturday evening. He's winless beyond the maiden ranks, is now past the six-month mark since that last win, and has never finished first in a route race. Jose Lezcano picks up the Derby mount, as Julien Leparoux, who rode State of Honor in all four of his 2017 starts, has opted to ride higher-ranked Classic Empire instead.

18. (N/A) FAST AND ACCURATE (c, Hansen–It's Heidi's Dance, by Green Dancer)

O-Kendall E. Hansen. B-John R. Penn (PA). T-Michael J. Maker.

Sales History: $24,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP; $85,000 2yo '16 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-1-0, $340,362.

Last Start: 1st, GIII JACK Cincinnati Casino Spiral S., TP, Mar. 25

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 50

Pennsylvania-bred Fast and Accurate, who has never won a dirt race, owns a past performance block that is dotted with tracks like Presque Isle Downs, Parx, and Turfway Park–venues that one doesn't historically see on a Derby participant's resume. Yes, he broke his maiden for a modest $30,000 tag last December, but Fast and Accurate is also riding a three-race win streak into the Derby, including a score in a $60,000 turf stakes at Gulfstream and an upset of the synthetic-track Spiral S at 24-1. That Turfway prep was truly a race of attrition based on a visual read of the race, as there were multiple runners that moved too soon and sputtered out, and the first three horses across the wire (two of them the longest shots on the board) all appeared to be laboring. Because Fast and Accurate had not been previously nominated to the Triple Crown, a steep $200,000 supplement is required to start. The colt's connections have indicated a willingness to pay, and trainer Maker on Sunday opted to give the mount to Channing Hill, who rode Fast and Accurate to victory in his maiden win (Spiral-winning jockey Tyler Gaffalione is riding Patch for Todd Pletcher).

19. (20) THUNDER SNOW (IRE) (c, Helmet (Aus)—Eastern Joy {GB}, by Dubai Destination)

O-Godolphin Racing LLC. B-Darley (IRE). T-Saeed bin Suroor. Lifetime Record: G1SW, 8-4-2-0, $1,627,692.

Last Start: 1st, G2 UAE Derby, MEY, Mar. 25.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, G1 Criterium International, STC, Oct. 30, 1st, UAE 2000 Guineas, MEY, Feb. 11.

Next Start: Possible for GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 100

Until late last week, Thunder Snow was also under consideration for this Saturday's G1 2000 Guineas in the United Kingdom, yet even though that race is contested in close proximity to trainer Saeed bin Suroor's yard at Newmarket, the UAE Derby victor has shipped to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby instead. Thunder Snow is riding a three-race win streak and his UAE Derby win in the mud was the fastest clocking of that stakes during the Meydan dirt era, but his perceived temperament will contribute to long odds in the Derby betting. At Meydan, Thunder Snow spooked at the large infield video board during pre-race warmups, had trouble handling the turns, and veered and shied when encountering starting gate marks on the track before eking out a nose victory over a field that did not include any other Group 1 winners. This colt will be bin Suroor's seventh runner in the Run for the Roses–his best finish was sixth by China Visit (Red Ransom) in 2000–and jockey Christophe Soumillon has only ridden in one previous Derby, finishing eighth with Mubtaahij (IRE) (Dubawi IRE}) in 2015.

20. (N/A) SONNETEER (c, Midnight Lute—Ours, by Half Ours)

O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Keith J. Desormeaux. Lifetime Record: GSP, 10-0-4-2, $284,445.

Last Start: 4th, GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 30

Sonneteer is still a maiden after 10 lifetime tries, but only once has he finished worse than fourth. His style indicates that jockey Kent Desormeaux will drop far off the pace and attempt a closing move from well off the tailgate. That strategy was good enough to earn Sonneteer a second and a fourth in two graded Oaklawn preps, which in turn was enough to garner the required leaderboard points for Sonneteer to enter the Derby. Buchanan (1884), Sir Barton (1919), and Brokers Tip (1933) are the only previous maidens to win the Kentucky Derby. Since 1937 (records are incomplete before that date), maidens are a collective 0-for-10 in the Derby, with the best finish over those eight decades being an eighth-place try.