WinStar TDN Derby Top 20 for Mar. 28

by T.D. Thornton

With the final round of GI Kentucky Derby preps stretching out primarily to nine furlongs for the remainder of the season, the TDN Derby Top 12 is also expanding, switching to a Top 20 format from here on out. Please note the rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points leaderboard that Churchill Downs will use to determine starting berths; that list can be accessed here.

1. MCCRAKEN (c, Ghostzapper">Ghostzapper—Ivory Empress, by Seeking the Gold)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY). T-Ian R. Wilkes. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-4-0-0, $310,848.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: 1

Last Start: 1st, GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 11

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 26, 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 30

Next Start: GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on McCraken

KY Derby Points: 20

McCraken has deservedly anchored the top spot on the TDN Derby rankings since Feb. 14, and even though he missed a scheduled start in the GII Tampa Bay Derby earlier this month with a slight strain in his left front ankle, his trainer hardly seems rattled by the minor change of plans. This undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' posted a solid six-furlong maintenance work with a decent gallop out on Monday at Keeneland, and while McCraken doesn't have to win the Apr. 8 Blue Grass S. by the length of the stretch to keep his assertive hold at the head of the class, it will be important to see definite signs of progress at nine furlongs. There is a danger in not wanting to wring too much out of McCraken prior to the first leg of the Triple Crown, yet it would also be a mistake to think he can “back into” the Derby if he falters in the Blue Grass without bridging the gap between 1 1/16 and 1 1/4 miles. Even with that caveat, it's hard to resist not looking back at this colt's 3-for-3 record at Churchill Downs, and then projecting forwardly the huge tactical advantage a fondness for the Louisville strip would afford McCraken on Derby Day. He not only won those races by comfortable margins, but with a professional, off-the-pace presence that was impressive for a 2-year-old who didn't debut until October.

2. TAPWRIT (c, Tapit—Appealing Zophie, by Successful Appeal)

O-Bridlewood Farm, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Robert V. LaPenta. B-My Meadowview, LLC (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $1,200,000 Ylg '15 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $313,902.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: 2

Last Start: 1st, GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 11

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Pulpit S., GP, Dec. 10

Next Start: Possible for GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 54

Tampa Bay Derby victor Tapwrit is riding an upward arc right now, building off three wins in his last four starts, with his only loss since November a trip-troubled second behind McCraken in the Davis S. He's a high-spirited, energetic gray who's built up a decent foundation of races, and trainer Pletcher has indicated that this $1.2 million colt has been accelerating quickly on the learning curve during training over the past six weeks with plenty of potential for further improvement. A possible rematch with McCraken in the Blue Grass S. might not turn out to be the clash-of-titans throwdown that it could be considering both camps want to move forward with horses that are fresh enough to peak four weeks later at Churchill Downs. But the head-to-head implications are still intriguing from the standpoint of which colt might emerge as the more dominant divisional foe (and likely Derby favorite) crossing the nine-furlong bridge en route to 1 ¼ miles on the first Saturday in May.

3. GUNNEVERA (c, Dialed In—Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled)

O-Peacock Racing Stables, LLC. B-Brandywine Farm & Stephen Upchurch (KY). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $16,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-2-0, $1,075,200.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: 4

Last Start: 1st, GII Xpressbet Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot S., DED, Nov. 19; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 14

Next Start: GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gunnevera

KY Derby Points: 64

The Florida Derby will be Gunnevera's chance to finally shrug off the “overachiever” label that comes with being a $16,000 yearling who took three starts to break his maiden, pulled off a mild stakes upset at Saratoga, then won a million-dollar Delta Downs stakes with a gangly, somewhat unfocused, last-to-first lope around a tight-turn track. Since then, he's shown up in workmanlike, consistent fashion against top competition in Florida, registering a solid second in the GII Holy Bull S. followed by a methodical, more-left-in-the-tank score in the Fountain of Youth S. Yes, as a one-run closer, Gunnevera will always be at the mercy of the pace in front of him. But he gives no indication that he's yet come close to bottoming out in terms of stamina. After breezing five furlongs on Saturday at Gulfstream Park West in 1:01.80 (7/20), trainer Sano declared confidently that the work wasn't so much a tightener for Gunnevera's next engagement, but as a foundation for the Kentucky Derby. “He didn't need more for the Florida Derby, so I breezed him looking ahead to the next one,” he said.

4. PRACTICAL JOKE (c, Into Mischief—Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor)

O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. & William H. Lawrence. B-Whispering Oaks (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $135,000 Ylg '15 KEEJAN; $240,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-3-1-0, $815,800.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: 5

Last Start: 2nd, GII Xpressbet Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Hopeful S., SAR, Sept. 5; 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 8.

Next Start: Probable for GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 34

Practical Joke is in a good spot in terms of fitness and preparedness, but it's crucial that he fires a commanding shot going nine furlongs if he's to be considered a serious threat for the Derby. After each of his workouts the last two Saturdays, trainer Brown has underscored his need to be choosy about which prep stakes will be next for the two-time Grade I juvenile stakes winner, and you can't exactly blame him. He said after the Mar. 18 move that “I'm going to go as far as to enter him in the Florida Derby and see where he draws and how it shapes up.” And after the Mar. 25 move, Brown reiterated, “it's probable I will run [in the Florida Derby], but it's not certain … The other idea is maybe running in the Blue Grass” on Apr. 8. Although no trainer wants to see their horse peak too early on the Derby trail, nailing a win in one of those two Derby preps would carry a little more extra emphasis for Practical Joke, because he's yet to taste victory beyond a one-turn mile. Heading into the Churchill Downs starting gate without any lingering doubts about his ability to win going two turns could be the difference between Practical Joke being one of the top contenders or just another hopeful taking a shot at 1 1/4 miles.

5. MO TOWN (c, Uncle Mo—Grazie Mille, by Bernardini)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Team D. B-John D. Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock (KY). T-Anthony W. Dutrow. Sales History: $200,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $251,600.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: 6

Last Start: 5th, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 26

Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Mo Town

KY Derby Points: 10

Mo Town is the highest-ranked horse within this week's Top 20 to have thrown in a poor effort in his last race, and although his beaten-fave fifth in the Risen Star S. on Feb. 25 certainly does signal the derailment of his Derby chances, the lack of getting a meaningful race under his belt earlier in the winter now puts added pressure on him to perform strongly in his only other Derby prep. To accomplish that, trainer Dutrow will bring Mo Town back to the same surface and distance of his most emphatic triumph, banking on the Apr. 8 Wood Memorial at nine furlongs over the Aqueduct main track to rekindle the brilliance that earned Mo Town an impressive win last November in the Remsen S. Highly regarded as a 2-year-old, Mo Town has already demonstrated considerable athletic prowess, sharp tactical punch, and a high level of cardio fitness. Now he needs to utilize those same tools at a higher level as a sophomore, and shipping from a warmer climate to the cooler New York spring might be another plus in his favor as his conditioner attempts to get him to peak precisely on the first Saturday in May.

6. J BOYS ECHO (c, Mineshaft">Mineshaft—Letgomyecho, by Menifee)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Albaugh Family Stable. B-Betz/Blackburn/J. Betz/Ramsby/CNHHHNK (KY). T-Dale L. Romans. Sales History: $485,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-1, $299,600.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: 10

Last Start: 1st, GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 4

Next Start: Likely for GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on J Boys Echo

KY Derby Points: 53

J Boys Echo certainly isn't aiming for the path of least resistance to get to the Kentucky Derby, as the Blue Grass S. is likely to lure several of the highest-ranked horses within the division. But trainer Romans seems confident that this 'TDN Rising Star' is rounding into top form at the right time, declaring him “fit and ready to roll” after an easy five-eighths breeze last Saturday. With the likes of McCraken and Tapwrit ahead of him in the betting, J Boys Echo could go off as a juicy overlay in the Blue Grass, and a win or a very sharp effort vaults him up a few notches within a division that undergoes shakeups nearly every single week. Don't forget that J Boys Echo has already displayed an affinity for the Keeneland strip, busting out to break his maiden there by 5 1/2 lengths last October despite a troubled trip.

7. MALAGACY (c, Shackleford—Classiest Gem, by Dehere)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Sumaya U.S. Stable. B-John Trumbulovic (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $45,000 Wlg '14 KEENOV; $130,000 Ylg '15 OBSAUG; $190,000 2yo '16 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $586,800.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A

Last Start: 1st, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 18

Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 50

The upside for Malagacy is that he's 3-for-3 and showed uncanny quickness coupled with a laid-back, professional demeanor when stretching out to a capable victory in the Rebel S. The downside is his first two wins were runaway efforts in Gulfstream sprints over non-Derby-caliber horses, and in the Rebel, his next closest competitor was a 112-1 maiden, and none of the second-through-sixth horses in that $900,000 prep have won a race so far in 2017. So the jury is still out on what Malagacy's undefeated status actually means moving forward. Trainer Pletcher, who started the season somewhat quietly, now has a loaded hand of Triple Crown-capable horses that he must keep separated between now and the first Saturday in May. But it will be an easy call to send this 'TDN Rising Star' back to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby considering he's already shipped there well and handled the track, plus the between-race spacing makes sense.

8. AMERICAN ANTHEM (c, Bodemeister—Indy's Windy, by A.P. Indy)

O-WinStar Farm, LLC, S F Bloodstock, LLC & China Horse Club. B-WinStar Farm (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $180,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $435,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-1-1-0, $54,200.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: 3

Last Start: 10th, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 18

Next Start: Possible for GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 4

A lost left front shoe appears to be the obvious explanation for American Anthem's erratic action as the soundly beaten favorite in the Rebel S. (WinStar Farm exec Elliott Walden first confirmed this to Daily Racing Form two days after the race). That's certainly a legitimate excuse to write off that one race, but the more important longer-term question is can this May 15 foal regroup in time to be a meaningful factor in the Triple Crown chase? Considering he shipped halfway across the country and got little, if anything, out of that Oaklawn effort from conditioning and seasoning standpoints, will it be too much to ask of American Anthem to deliver an assertive performance in a possible Santa Anita Derby start while expecting him to flourish even further at Churchill Downs with only four lifetime starts under his belt? The talent is definitely there, the timing is what's iffy at this crucial juncture of the season.

9. ONE LINER (c, Into Mischief—Cayala, by Cherokee Run)

O-WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club & SF Racing, LLC. B-Kingswood Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $150,000 Ylg '15 KEEJAN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $373,800.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: 7

Last Start: 1st, GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 20

Next start: Possible for either GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, or GII Blue Grass S., KEE, both Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 10

One Liner is 3-for-3 and won't face an easy go in his next race regardless of whether trainer Pletcher opts for the Wood Memorial or the Blue Grass S. Either way, this athletic but unseasoned bay is going to have to prove he can slug it out with heavier hitters than the horses he's pasting so far in 2017 after winning at first asking on Saratoga's opening weekend last season. He went 33 days between his Southwest S. victory and his first workout back after that impressive score, but also in that interim, four horses he beat in the Southwest (the second, third, fourth and sixth finishers) came back to be non-threatening also-rans in the Mar. 18 Rebel S., meaning One Liner didn't exactly get a boost on the who-beat-whom scale. His Southwest win did come back fast according to various speed-figure metrics though, so if you're a proponent of the numbers, you might be inclined to rank One Liner a touch higher on this list, perhaps even swapping him out with fellow Pletcher trainee Malagacy (who sports an identical race record but seems a bit more poised than the sometimes-unfocused One Liner).

10. ILIAD (r, Ghostzapper">Ghostzapper—Little Swoon, by You and I)

O-Kaleem Shah, Inc. B-Sungyeoun Lim (KY). T-Doug F. O'Neill. Sales history: $50,000 Wlg '14 KEENOV; $80,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $285,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $227,345.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A

Last Start: 2nd, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 11

Next Start: Possible for GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 20

When a horse wins as crushingly and as dominantly as the since-injured 'TDN Rising Star' Mastery (Candy Ride {Arg}) did in the San Felipe S., how fair is it to downgrade the performances of the contenders left in the wake? Iliad truly looked like he was spinning his wheels trying to reel in Mastery, but surely he gained something out of the experience. He did respond relatively gamely when set down for the drive in what was his first career attempt around two turns, and it could be argued that that second-place try provided Iliad with more in-race seasoning than many of the stakes winners ranked above him on this list have faced so far on the Derby prep trail. Trainer O'Neill has said all along this ridgling has both the mental composure and the pedigree of a horse who will handle the longer Triple Crown distances; he may even go off favored in a wide-open Santa Anita Derby.

11. IRISH WAR CRY (c, Curlin">Curlin—Irish Sovereign, by Polish Numbers)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Isabelle de Tomaso (NJ). T-H. G. Motion. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $299,460.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: 8

Last Start: 7th, GII Xpressbet Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4

Accomplishments: 1st, GII Lambholm South Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4, 1st, Marylander S., LRL, Jan. 23

Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Irish War Cry

KY Derby Points: 10

A change of scenery (and climate) could be the difference-maker if Irish War Cry is to get back to his winning ways in the Wood Memorial. After a puzzler of a seventh-place try as the beaten fave in the Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream, trainer Motion likes the fact that this speedy 'TDN Rising Star' will be back at his Fair Hill training base and will get an extra week of preparation (as opposed to running in the Apr. 1 Florida Derby) before deciding whether or not to move forward on the Triple Crown trail with his young (May 2 foal) New Jersey-bred colt. The pace in the Wood is likely to be robust considering the presence of El Areeb (Exchange Rate), who–like Irish War Cry–must prove he is comfortable rating just behind solid fractions. And several other already proven stalkers–like Mo Town and possibly One Liner–figure to add additional pressure, potentially setting up the Wood as one of the toughest late-season Derby preps to figure out in terms of how the pace will project.

12. GIRVIN (c, Tale of Ekati—Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)

O-Brad Grady. B-Bob Austin & John Witte (KY). T-Joe Sharp. Sales History: $140,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP; $130,000 Ylg '15 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $274,400.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: 12

Last Start: 1st, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Next start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Apr. 1

Girvin.pdf">Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 50

The late-striding Girvin's entry in Saturday's Louisiana Derby was accompanied by the same-connections entry of known speedball Hotfoot (Aikenite) who figures to keep front-end specialist Local Hero (Hard Spun) company on the front end. Girvin enjoyed extremely favorable pace and positional conditions when winning the Feb. 25 Risen Star S., but now the immediate goal will be to see if he can remain resolute through the long Fair Grounds stretch with some fresh competition presumably chasing him home. This colt hasn't run a bad race yet, but like a number of hopefuls within the TDN Top 20, he has yet to check the “overcomes adversity” box on his résumé against top divisional competition, and it would be useful for him to show he's got that type of fight in him before he has to prove it in a 20-horse field going ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

13. CLASSIC EMPIRE (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief)

O-John C. Oxley. B-Steven & Brandi Nicholson (KY). T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $475,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-4-0-1, $1,520,220.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: 9

Last Start: 3rd, GII Lambholm South Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5, 1st, GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 8; 1st, GIII Bashford Manor S., CD, July 2.

Next start: Possible for either GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8, or GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Classic Empire

KY Derby Points: 32

The juvenile champ is looking to overcome a series of minor setbacks and mysterious quirks that have included a foot abscess, back problems, and several refusals to break off into scheduled workouts so far this season. Classic Empire has since resurfaced at Winding Oaks Farm near Ocala, where he galloped on Monday and is scheduled to work sometime this week while his connections map out a late-spring push to get him ready for a potential Derby berth. “He's a very talented horse. He's a special horse. He's a horse that doesn't carry a whole lot of weight. Ideally, he'd be on a regular work pattern, but I don't think it's that much of an issue with him because he's so talented and because he's kind of a freak athlete,” assistant trainer Norm Casse told XBTV Mar. 26. “So long as we don't miss any more time with him, he could either run in the Blue Grass or the Arkansas Derby and we'd be very confident that he'd be ready to perform at a high level in those races.”

14. EL AREEB (c, Exchange Rate—Feathered Diamond, by A.P. Indy)

'TDN Rising Star' O-M M G Stables, LLC. B-Dixiana Farms, LLC (KY). T-Cathal A. Lynch. Sales History: $100,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $340,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 7-4-1-1, $364,200.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A

Last Start: 3rd, GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 4

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 4, 1st, GIII Jerome S., AQU, Jan. 2, 1st, James F. Lewis III S., LRL, Nov. 19

Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 20

'TDN Rising Star' El Areeb is not only going to have to prove he's learned to rate since succumbing to pace pressure while on the front end in his non-threatening third in the Gotham S., but he's going to have to execute this new dimension against far tougher competition in the Wood Memorial. “I put him in behind horses,” trainer Lynch said after a: 49.40 (7/15) half-mile move at Laurel Mar. 23. “He was like two or three lengths behind [two older stakes winners] and then finished up a little stronger than they did.” If the colt can fuse his solid foundation (seven races) with some in-race versatility, he could be a legitimate stalking presence going nine furlongs in the Wood. But keep in mind his two previous stakes romps at Aqueduct both come over the tighter inner track, wile the Wood will be run over the larger main oval.

15. BATTLE OF MIDWAY (c, 3, Smart Strike–Rigoletta, by Concerto)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Fox Hill Farms, Inc. B-Thor-Bred Stables, LLC (KY). T-Jerry Hollendorfer. Sales History: $410,000 Ylg '15 SARAUG. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-2-0-1, $90,000.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A

Last Start: 1st, Allowance/Optional Claiming, SA, Mar. 9

Next Start: Possible for GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 0

If this 'TDN Rising Star' has shrugged off his blah third when beaten as the 4-5 favorite in the GII San Vicente S., and that assertive, first-level, 1 1/16 miles allowance score at Santa Anita Mar. 9 is a truer indication of his actual ability, Battle of Midway could be sitting on a breakthrough effort in the wide-open West Coast sector of the division. He has the potential to be able to withstand significant pace pressure while shifting willingly into stalk mode, which is a lesson not yet mastered by some of his contemporaries who share the same amount of limited (three career races after a Jan. 21 debut) experience.

16. BATTALION RUNNER (c, 3, Unbridled's Song–Tamboz, by Tapit)

'TDN Rising Star' O-St. Elias Stable. B-Dell Ridge Farm, LLC (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $700,000 Ylg '15 KEESEp. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $60,600.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A

Last Start: 1st, Allowance/Optional Claiming, GP, Feb. 3

Next Start: Possible for either GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1, or GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Trainer Pletcher is mindful of keeping his top-tier 3-year-olds separated in terms of prep races as Derby Day nears, but he's also cognizant of the longer-term implications resulting from two top Triple Crown races (the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass S.) getting downgraded from Grade I to Grade II this year. Thus, “we've even kicked around the idea of possibly sending Battalion Runner to the Santa Anita Derby, which we normally don't ship east-to-west this time of year for Derby preps,” Pletcher said last week on “At the Races With Steve Byk,” when he explained that traveling to earn Grade I wins has suddenly gotten “a little more attractive” because of those downgrades. Battalion Runner has definitely earned a shot at stakes company, coming off of back-to-back wins at Gulfstream, a seven-furlong maiden special weight Dec. 31 and a 1 1/16-miles allowance Feb. 3. In the latter, this 'TDN Rising Star' enjoyed a perfect stalking trip, advancing at will on the far turn to nail an overmatched pacemaker before clicking into a noticeably higher gear while winning in measured fashion.

17. GUEST SUITE (g, Quality Road—Guest House, by Ghostzapper)

O-W. S. Farish & Lora Jean Kilroy. B-W. S. Farish & Kilroy Thoroughbred Partnership (KY). T-Neil Howard. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-0-2, $219,840.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A

Last Start: 4th, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 21

Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Apr. 1

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 15

As mentioned a touch higher up in the rankings, a fast pace in Saturday's Louisiana Derby will benefit Girvin. But it could benefit a gelding like Guest Suite even more. Call it what you want–a “comeback race” or a “confidence booster”–but Guest Suite is in need of some sort of turnaround that shows he can move forward off of the fairly well established form he capably displayed back in autumn and early winter. Not even trainer Howard seems to know why Guest Suite threw in an inexplicable clunker in the Risen Star S. (a catchy malady that's plagued numerous top 3-year-olds so far this season), but the recipe is there for a rebound on Saturday, and the main ingredients are 1) The fact that Guest Suite already has five races longer than a mile under his belt; 2) He's shown an ability to level off fluidly when set down for the drive; 3) Guest Suite has already proven he can put away one set of rivals turning for home while having enough left in the tank to hold off fresh challengers in the shadow of the wire (watch the replay of his Lecomte S. win).

18. REACH THE WORLD (c, 3, Tapit–Reach The Stars (Ire), by Galileo {Ire})

O-Don Alberto Stable. B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-1, $50,080.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A

Last Start: 2nd, Allowance/Optional Claiming, SA, Mar. 9

Next Start: Possible for GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

KY Derby Points: 0

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Earlier this winter, trainer Baffert described Reach the World as a big, long-reaching, late developer who “looks the part” of a horse who could probably cover 1 1/2 miles comfortably. As a Tapit (Pulpit) colt out of a mare who is a half sister to 1998 Eclipse Award Champion Older Mare and G1 Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Escena, this trip-troubled gray (beaten fave last out when pocketed behind Battle of Midway) certainly has the pedigree potential to uncork an impressive performance over a distance of ground. He might get a chance to run big at nine furlongs if he goes in the Santa Anita Derby, which is shaping up to be a real wild card of a race on the latter stages of the Derby trail.

19. GORMLEY (c, Malibu Moon—Race to Urga, by Bernstein)

O-Mr. & Mrs. Jerome Moss. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-3-0-0, $320,000.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A

Last Start: 4th, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 11

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Oct. 6, 1st, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 7.

Next Start: Possible for GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gormley

KY Derby Points: 25

Gormley ambitiously attempted to shadow Mastery around the track in the San Felipe S. and he paid the price by cracking under intense pressure at the quarter pole. Yet ten days later he was back on the worktab for a decent half-mile maintenance move, which is not much of a surprise considering trainer Shirreffs has described him throughout the campaign as a versatile, high-energy horse who thrives on activity. If he goes in the Santa Anita Derby, consider him more on the merits of his capable foundation of two-turn races against graded company and his handling by a patient trainer rather than the flailing impression he left when manhandled by the superior Mastery back on Mar. 11. This colt might not be the overpowering, intimidating type, but he's not afraid to mix things up either, and could surprise late on the Derby trail as an unheralded overachiever.

20. HENCE (c, Street Boss—Floating Island, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-1, $542,601.

Mar. 14 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A

Last Start: 1st, GIII Sunland Derby, SUN, Mar. 26

Next Start: Uncommitted

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 50

Hence clawed his way into the Top 20 by circling the Sunland Derby field from last and drawing away to a 3 3/4-length score on Sunday. Despite requiring four starts to break his maiden, the colt has caught some decent company, debuting in the same deep Saratoga maiden race that produced next-out winner Mo Town prior to finishing third and within 2 1/2 lengths of Guest Suite at Keeneland. He graduated Jan. 16 at Oaklawn by overcoming trouble at the start and ducking in late over a sloppy track, apparently spooked by a reflection of the infield video board. Although generally an off-the-pace type, it's worth noting that in Hence's only career try at Churchill Downs, he was on the lead going a one-turn mile and was only beaten a neck.