WinStar TDN Derby Top 20 for Apr. 4

by T.D. Thornton

Definitive winners in both the GI Florida Derby and the GII Louisiana Derby over the weekend help to solidify the TDN Derby Top 20 rankings, and this coming Saturday a whopping 13 horses on this list will be in action as the GI Santa Anita Derby, GII Blue Grass S., and GII Wood Memorial as we approach the four-week mark to the GI Kentucky Derby. Please note the rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard that Churchill Downs will use to determine starting berths; that list can be accessed here.

1. (Last Week: 1) MCCRAKEN (c, Ghostzapper">Ghostzapper—Ivory Empress, by Seeking the Gold)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY). T-Ian R. Wilkes. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-4-0-0, $310,848.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 11

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 26, 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 30

Next Start: GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on McCraken

KY Derby Points: 20

Divisional leader McCraken is thriving at Keeneland according to his connections, but Saturday's Blue Gras S. looms as a corker of a prep race that will be extremely deep in talent, so he'll need to demonstrate further progression to retain his top ranking. Trainer Wilkes reports that this 'TDN Rising Star' is “bigger and stronger since he has been here,” and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.–who drove ten hours overnight from New Orleans to Lexington after winning the Louisiana Derby just to work McCraken on Sunday morning–added that he notices a change in the colt's attitude, too. “He does everything right on cue now,” Hernandez said. “He [works furlongs] in perfect :12s and gets faster as he goes. He's an amazing horse. Last year he worked five-eighths before the [GII] Kentucky Jockey Club [S.] and just went out there, but now he is focused on the job like he wants to do it.” Considering that McCraken has already displayed a keen sense of being in control without being overly aggressive and an ability to shift into multiple gears when asked, it will be intriguing to see what new dimensions he might exhibit in the toughest prep race of the season on Saturday.

2. (2) TAPWRIT (c, Tapit—Appealing Zophie, by Successful Appeal)

O-Bridlewood Farm, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Robert V. LaPenta. B-My Meadowview, LLC (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $1,200,000 Ylg '15 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $313,902.

Last Start: 1st, GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 11

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Pulpit S., GP, Dec. 10

Next Start: GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 54

Trainer Pletcher has five horses ranked in the TDN Top 20, and this late juncture of the prep season, this $1.2 million colt rates a slight edge among them based on seasoning, the spacing of his races, the fact that he's overcome in-race adversities to win or come close to it, and that he gives the impression there's more under the hood that we haven't yet seen. Asked what Tapwrit's main strengths were, Pletcher said in a Friday telephone interview that the high-spirited gray “has shown that he's adaptable. He took dirt well in the Tampa Derby. He got a good education there. He seems like he's handling the stretchout in distances. We just need to continue on an upward plane. He's had a good winter and early spring. We just need to keep it in that direction.” Despite a downgrade from Grade I to Grade II status this season, the Blue Grass S. is shaping up as one of the most “loaded” prep races of the campaign, and the vibe is already out there that the connections of top competitors don't want to win the battle (Blue Grass) at the expense of losing the overall war (Derby). But if either McCraken or Tapwrit wins emphatically at Keeneland on Saturday, the victor will almost certainly head to Louisville as the solid favorite for the first leg of the Triple Crown.

3. (N/A) ALWAYS DREAMING (c, Bodemeister—Above Perfection, by In Excess {Ire})

O-Brooklyn Boyz Stables, Teresa Viola Racing Stables et al. B-Santa Rosa Partners (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-3-1-1, $648,900.

Last Start: 1st, GI Xpressbet Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 100

The commanding performance by Always Dreaming in the Florida Derby vaults him to the elite level near the head of the division. He was keen and into the bit early on, nearly running up on heels entering the clubhouse turn, and after attempting to bull his way through some minor shuffling, he settled willingly when jockey John Velazquez re-asserted his rating hold entering the backstretch. Gliding into stride just behind the expected pacemaker, Always Dreaming took dead aim on Three Rules (Gone Astray), and while stalking relentlessly from 4 1/2 furlongs out to the three-sixteenths pole, it was clearly a matter of “when” not “if” Velazquez would unleash him to rip away the lead. Once he blasted to the front, Always Dreaming appeared to relish being roused inside the final furlong, extending fluidly and with an authority that belied his light (just three starts in 2017) seasoning. A patient approach earlier in the campaign (opting for a nine-furlong allowance race instead of a graded stakes try at 1 1/16 miles on Mar. 4) is what trainer Pletcher is hoping will contribute to Always Dreaming peaking at the right time as a major Triple Crown presence.

4. (12) GIRVIN (c, Tale of Ekati—Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)

O-Brad Grady. B-Bob Austin & John Witte (KY). T-Joe Sharp. Sales History: $140,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP; $130,000 Ylg '15 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-1-0, $874,400.

Last Start: 1st, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Apr. 1

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Next start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 150

Girvin keeps stretching out and winning while displaying still-developing tactical prowess. Can he parlay what he's done in his brief four-race career into a win in the Derby? His jockey, Brian Hernandez, Jr., indicated after their 1 1/4-length Louisiana Derby that he thinks so, which could set up a tough choice for Hernandez, because he is also the regular rider of No. 1-ranked McCraken. “He's the type of horse where he's got enough athletic ability that he puts me in a good spot,” Hernandez explained, adding that when he saw Local Hero (Hard Spun) settle off the pace behind Girvin's uncoupled 98-1 rabbit, Hotfoot (Aikenite), he used Local Hero as his target. And every time he cued Girvin to quicken, the colt responded. “Turning for home, he got to kind of switching leads back and forth, but he was just kind of messing around. He's going to go on and improve off of this,” Hernandez said. That could be true, but objectively, it's also fair to question the quality of the competition Girvin beat in the Louisiana Derby: With the exception of Guest Suite (Quality Road), who was a non-threatening seventh as the second choice in the betting, no other horse in the field had ever won a stakes race.

5. (6) J BOYS ECHO (c, Mineshaft">Mineshaft—Letgomyecho, by Menifee)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Albaugh Family Stable. B-Betz/Blackburn/J. Betz/Ramsby/CNHHHNK (KY). T-Dale L. Romans. Sales History: $485,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-1, $299,600.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 4

Next Start: GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on J Boys Echo

KY Derby Points: 53

I'm always a little dubious about reading too much into victories that were earned under ideal conditions, like J Boys Echo's swooping move after a traffic-free rail trip to collar two all-out pacemakers in the Gotham S. But this 'TDN Rising Star' has been growing on me as a sneaky sort of under-the-radar colt who is capable of another mild upset in the Blue Grass S., and could be further primed for a big effort going ten furlongs on Derby Day. In his favor numbers-wise is a robust 102 Beyer Speed Figure generated in the Gotham, it will also be worth taking a close look at how Cloud Computing (Maclean's Music) does in the GII Wood Memorial, considering how that lightly raced rival (off his second in the Gotham) has suddenly emerged as a “wiseguy” Derby horse. Also of merit is the fact that this athletic son of Mineshaft (A.P. Indy) has been running in nothing but 1 1/16-mile races since lifetime start number two way back in October, and that he's already run well (second, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths despite a troubled trip) over a Churchill strip that trainer Romans considers home court.

6. (5) MO TOWN (c, Uncle Mo—Grazie Mille, by Bernardini)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Team D. B-John D. Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock (KY). T-Anthony W. Dutrow. Sales History: $200,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $251,600.

Last Start: 5th, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 26

Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Mo Town

KY Derby Points: 10

Roughly one-quarter of the horses ranked within the Top 20 are in need of rebounding sharply to get back to firmer footing on the Derby trail. Mo Town is the highest ranked among them, and the fact that he is returning to the surface and distance of his most decisive victory this Saturday tilts the balance in his favor of his making the leap back into contention. It's been well documented that this 'TDN Rising Star' didn't care for the footing when he was a badly beaten favorite at the Fair Grounds, and one can only wonder how Mo Town's campaign might otherwise have unfolded had trainer Dutrow instead opted for the Mar. 4 Gotham S., which earlier in the year had been mentioned as his potential starting point. Mo Town will be ridden by Javier Castellano in the Wood Memorial, replacing John Velazquez, who was reportedly unable to commit. “We've been training him the same way and he's been responding to it,” Dutrow said prior to Mo Town shipping north from Payson Park. “Javier rode him in his first start and he's watched him in his other races, so he knows the horse. I think we're excellent.”

7. (4) PRACTICAL JOKE (c, Into Mischief—Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor)

O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. & William H. Lawrence. B-Whispering Oaks (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $135,000 Ylg '15 KEEJAN; $240,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-3-1-0, $815,800.

Last Start: 2nd, GII Xpressbet Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Hopeful S., SAR, Sept. 5; 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 8.

Next Start: GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 34

When trainer Brown decided last week not to enter Practical Joke in the Florida Derby, instead opting for an additional week of training and the Apr. 8 Blue Grass S., it seemed to me like he was passing up a softer Grade I opportunity at Gulfstream in exchange for running in a Grade II race at Keeneland that was likely to draw far heavier hitters. Yet with the benefit of hindsight–specifically, after having seen the flashy Always Dreaming demolish the Florida Derby field–Brown's move now looks like a pretty wise option. A solid in-the-money finish in the Blue Grass will be good enough to stamp this two-time Grade I winner's ticket to Louisville. Although a win isn't necessary, it sure would sure go a long way to clearing up nagging doubts about Practical Joke's ability to win at two turns, because right now he's yet to prove himself beyond a one-turn mile at Belmont Park. In fact, a score on Saturday would also end what will be exactly a six-month win drought. Regardless of the race distance, Practical Joke hasn't graced the winner's circle since his GI Champagne S. way back on Oct. 8.

8. (7) MALAGACY (c, Shackleford—Classiest Gem, by Dehere)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Sumaya U.S. Stable. B-John Trumbulovic (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $45,000 Wlg '14 KEENOV; $130,000 Ylg '15 OBSAUG; $190,000 2yo '16 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $586,800.

Last Start: 1st, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 18

Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 50

When a young colt is undefeated from three starts and aiming for the Kentucky Derby, it's often the case that he's displayed raw talent that has yet to be tempered by poise and maturity. That's not so with 'TDN Rising Star' Malagacy, according to his trainer. “He's got a great disposition and a good mind. He's got plenty of natural speed, and also at the same time he's very rateable and kind, and I think that's going to help him be able to stretch out in distance,” Pletcher said in a phone interview. Malagacy will return to Oaklawn, the scene of his breakthrough stretch-out win in the Rebel S. last month, for the Apr. 15 Arkansas Derby. That's a race Pletcher has won a record four times, with Graeme Hall (Dehere) in 2000, Balto Star (Glitterman) in 2001, Overanalyze (Dixie Union) in 2013, and Danza (Street Boss) in 2014. But with the exception of Danza, who ran third in the Kentucky Derby, Pletcher's other three Arkansas Derby winners didn't fare as well when advancing to Louisville, with none placing higher than eleventh.

9. (8) AMERICAN ANTHEM (c, Bodemeister—Indy's Windy, by A.P. Indy)

O-WinStar Farm, LLC, S F Bloodstock, LLC & China Horse Club. B-WinStar Farm (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $180,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $435,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-1-1-0, $54,200.

Last Start: 10th, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 18

Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 4

American Anthem will get a new jockey (Rafael Bejarano) for the Santa Anita Derby as trainer Baffert has assigned Mike Smith to his other lightly raced prospect, Reach the World (Tapit), for the same race. Will the talent American Anthem displayed in his first two races be enough for this May 15 foal to overcome being under the gun in terms of timing for the Derby? His thrown-shoe debacle in the Rebel S. is an obvious excuse for that clunker, but now it puts him in the difficult position of having to run an exceptionally strong race on Saturday just to prove he can win at two turns against stakes company. Visually, he has still run the best losing race in 2017 of any horse ranked on this week's Top 20 (pinned inside by more experienced foe, kicked again determinedly to only lose by a pip in the Sham S.). But that race was way back on Jan. 7, and its relevance diminishes with each passing week on the Derby trail.

10. (9) ONE LINER (c, Into Mischief—Cayala, by Cherokee Run)

O-WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club & SF Racing, LLC. B-Kingswood Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $150,000 Ylg '15 KEEJAN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $373,800.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 20

Next start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 10

Among his top-level 3-year-olds, trainer Pletcher weeks ago committed Tapwrit to the Blue Grass S. and expressed a desire to keep Always Dreaming and Battalion Runner (Unbridled's Song) separated. A potential plan to ship Battalion Runner cross-country for the Santa Anita Derby was nixed this past weekend when that colt was committed to the Wood Memorial instead. So with shipping to California out of the picture, that meant that four of Pletcher's top sophomores needing nine-furlong Derby preps in the next two weeks had only three races to choose from. One Liner and Malagacy, the two 3-for-3 trainees who both won stakes at Oaklawn last time out, will double up, clashing in the Arkansas Derby. Speaking via phone, Pletcher said One Liner “has performed well every time, at three different distances at three tracks, so he seems versatile in that regard. Like all of them at this time of year he needs to continue to progress and he needs to handle the stretch out in distances. But he's got a lot of natural talent and we just need to keep building on that.”

11. (10) ILIAD (r, Ghostzapper">Ghostzapper—Little Swoon, by You and I)

O-Kaleem Shah, Inc. B-Sungyeoun Lim (KY). T-Doug F. O'Neill. Sales history: $50,000 Wlg '14 KEENOV; $80,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $285,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $227,345.

Last Start: 2nd, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 11

Next Start: Possible for GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 20

Iliad tops what is projected to be a four-horse contingent for trainer O'Neill in a wide-open Santa Anita Derby. It is possible that he will “back into” the role of favorite for this race after the seismic shakeup among West Coast 3-year-olds in the wake of 'TDN Rising Star' Mastery (Candy Ride {Arg})'s injury that knocked him off the Derby trail. This will be Iliad's second two-turn race, and he logged his final workout for Saturday's Grade I attempt by putting away two-time older winner Hoffenheim (Midnight Lute) on Mar. 31, getting six furlongs pretty much in hand in 1:13.80 under Flavien Prat while his mate was mildly driven to get the same distance a fifth of a second slower. Iliad could run a decent second or third on Saturday and still earn a berth to Louisville. But, similar to Practical Joke, if he doesn't win the Santa Anita Derby, that puts him in the unenviable spot of attempting to win the first leg of the Triple Crown having never tasted victory in a two-turn race.

12. (3) GUNNEVERA (c, Dialed In—Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled)

O-Peacock Racing Stables, LLC. B-Brandywine Farm & Stephen Upchurch (KY). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $16,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-2-0, $1,075,200.

Last Start: 3rd, GI Xpressbet Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Xpressbet Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4; 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot S., DED, Nov. 19; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 14

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gunnevera

KY Derby Points: 84

It's fairly safe to say that we've seen Gunnevera's “A” efforts already. And while his win-every-other-race sequence over his last six starts doesn't exactly stamp him as a major Kentucky Derby win threat, he has the makings of one of those robust stayers who can get the Triple Crown distances and can probably be counted upon to be in the hunt for an in-the-money placing. And under the right circumstances pace-wise, he could even surge to victory, provided there is a big enough meltdown in front of him. In his recent losses, his connections have cited being at the mercy of the surface and/or fractions as his undoing, and his Florida Derby pick-up-the-pieces third was no different. “I was riding, riding all the way in the race,” said jockey Javier Castellano. “He never grabbed the bit, he never pulled like he always used to. Maybe he was affected by the track—the track was speed today.” Gunnevera did exhibit one useful clue that could factor into a start before a big crowd at Churchill Downs: He was much calmer in the Gulfstream paddock prior to the running of the Florida Derby, and the ability to be cool customer in Louisville would be a big plus to his chances.

13. (11) IRISH WAR CRY (c, Curlin">Curlin—Irish Sovereign, by Polish Numbers)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Isabelle de Tomaso (NJ). T-H. G. Motion. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $299,460.

Last Start: 7th, GII Xpressbet Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4

Accomplishments: 1st, GII Lambholm South Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4, 1st, Marylander S., LRL, Jan. 23

Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Irish War Cry

KY Derby Points: 10

Irish War Cry needs to establish himself in the Wood Memorial as a bona-fide stalker who has more than one dimension. Earlier in the year, this 'TDN Rising Star' burst upon the scene by parlaying a pair of Laurel scores into a breathtaking wire job in Gulfstream's Holy Bull S. But he couldn't rate effectively and caved as the fave in the Mar. 4 Fountain of Youth S. “I wanted to get him home [to Fair Hill in Maryland] and give him the extra week,” said trainer Motion. “I just didn't feel like I could run back in the Florida Derby off that performance. For me it was getting him home and getting him relaxed. The biggest factor was probably the extra week, to be honest. It's also running in a Grade II as opposed to a Grade I. [The Florida Derby] was a solid group and the winner looked very impressive, I thought.”

14. (13) CLASSIC EMPIRE (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief)

O-John C. Oxley. B-Steven & Brandi Nicholson (KY). T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $475,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-4-0-1, $1,520,220.

Last Start: 3rd, GII Lambholm South Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5, 1st, GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 8; 1st, GIII Bashford Manor S., CD, July 2.

Next start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Classic Empire

KY Derby Points: 32

The juvenile champ's only 3-year-old race was an odds-on flop. He then missed several weeks of training because of a foot abscess. After that, Classic Empire refused to break off into several planned workouts, either because of a presumed back problem or because he's a bit of an unpredictable head case, or maybe a little of both. Now trainer Casse has pushed the limits of the Derby prep schedule by plotting a course for the Arkansas Derby, the very last opportunity to run in a Grade 1 sophomore stakes before the Kentucky Derby. None of this is unfolding as a favorable scenario. And yet, Classic Empire persists, checking in as the No. 14-ranked contender this deep into the season. Perhaps that says something about the inconsistency of the division as a whole. It also has a bit to do with the respect for his connections and the flashes of superiority he unleashed during his 2-year-old campaign. The plan will be to ship to Hot Springs three or four days before the Arkansas Derby. Casse knows the biggest obstacle at Oaklawn might not be the on-track competition–it could be the cramped confines of the indoor saddling paddock, where he said he especially wants to school the notoriously flighty Classic Empire ahead of race day.

15. (15) BATTLE OF MIDWAY (c, 3, Smart Strike–Rigoletta, by Concerto)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Fox Hill Farms, Inc. B-Thor-Bred Stables, LLC (KY). T-Jerry Hollendorfer. Sales History: $410,000 Ylg '15 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-2-0-1, $90,000.

Last Start: 1st, Allowance/Optional Claiming, SA, Mar. 9

Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 0

Bettors in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pari-mutuels consistently overvalue horses that run well on the weekend that particular pool is offered while overlooking entrants scheduled to compete in subsequent weeks. With that in mind, Battle of Midway seems like a pretty juicy overlay at 64-1 in the pool that just closed on Sunday. This 'TDN Rising Star' figures to be an assertive pace presence in Saturday' Santa Anita Derby. He was a game winner when stretching successfully to 1 1/16 miles against allowance company on Mar. 9, and nine furlongs is well within the scope of his pedigree. Even if you think Battle of Midway is a little light on racing experience with only three lifetime starts, he's also a Jan. 30 foal, which gives him up to a three-month edge in birth rank compared to some of the other 3-year-olds he'll be facing in the Santa Anita Derby.

16. (16) BATTALION RUNNER (c, 3, Unbridled's Song–Tamboz, by Tapit)

'TDN Rising Star' O-St. Elias Stable. B-Dell Ridge Farm, LLC (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $700,000 Ylg '15 KEESEp. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $60,600.

Last Start: 1st, Allowance/Optional Claiming, GP, Feb. 3

Next Start: Possible for either GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1, or GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

The final Derby prep-race plans for trainer Pletcher's loaded hand came into clarity over the weekend with the decision to scratch 'TDN Rising Star' Battalion Runner from the Florida Derby and instead commit him to the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Pletcher said all along this season that Battalion Runner seems to benefit from generous spacing between races. “We feel like he's consistently run well fresh and we've been training all along with either running in the Florida Derby or the following weekend in mind so hopefully we have him fit enough and ready enough to run his best,” Pletcher said. Battalion Runner has been forwardly placed in his two most recent efforts (both wins), but the Wood is shaping up with ample speed on paper, so it wouldn't be surprising to see if this gray is asked to back off a beat or two for his nine-furlong stakes debut.

17. (18) REACH THE WORLD (c, 3, Tapit–Reach The Stars (Ire), by Galileo {Ire})

O-Don Alberto Stable. B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-1, $50,080.

Last Start: 2nd, Allowance/Optional Claiming, SA, Mar. 9

Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

KY Derby Points: 0

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Trainer Baffert knew early on that sprinting wouldn't be Reach the World's game, and a foundation of three two-turn starts since Jan. 16 will stand this long-striding gray un good stead leading into the Santa Anita Derby. Watching his last two workouts, it appears as if Reach the World is just starting to get into rhythm by the time he hits the finish wire, and he's been keen to go on and extend himself at a geared-down clip well into the gallop out. Assuming he runs well enough Saturday to move ahead to the Kentucky Derby, Reach the World will still be rather light on experience, though. In the past decade, 13 horses have attempted the Derby on just four lifetime starts. Only Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux {BRZ}) in 2011 managed to win, but Baffert came close with another trainee, Bodemeister (Empire Maker), who was second in 2012. And don't forget that Reach the World's sire, Tapit (Pulpit), also tried to win the Derby on just four starts, but he finished ninth in 2004.

18. (19) GORMLEY (c, Malibu Moon—Race to Urga, by Bernstein)

O-Mr. & Mrs. Jerome Moss. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-3-0-0, $320,000.

Last Start: 4th, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 11

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Oct. 6, 1st, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 7.

Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gormley

KY Derby Points: 25

Gormley, a high-energy stalker, holds down a spot near the bottom of the rankings but could leapfrog half this list with a win or a solid second in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby. His past performances don't exactly reveal a “Wow!” factor that stamps him for Triple Crown greatness, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have an upside. The positives in Gormley's favor include the fact that he's been capably competing in nothing but two-turn graded stakes races since Oct. 1, and his only two defeats were handed to him by Classic Empire and Mastery, both of whom were considered at or near the top of the division at the time of their victories. Gormley has already been far more battle-tested than many of the rivals ranked above him, and it would be a mistake to underestimate his chances on the first Saturday in May should he run well enough Saturday for his patient, pragmatic trainer to send him on to Louisville.

19. (20) HENCE (c, Street Boss—Floating Island, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-1, $542,601.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Sunland Derby, SUN, Mar. 26

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 50

Hence won't get mentioned much in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby, aside from the inevitable comparisons to 2009's 50-1 shocker Mine That Bird (Birdstone). The comparisons won't really be accurate though, because even though both share a far-off-the-pace running style, Mine That Bird was based in New Mexico but didn't even win the Sunland Derby (he was fourth), while Hence has previously been stabled at Churchill and shipped in from Oaklawn to circle the Sunland Derby field at 10-1. Trainer Asmussen said on “At the Races With Steve Byk” last week that even though he initially mulled an additional start prior to the Kentucky Derby for Hence, he decided within 48 hours of the Sunland win to give the exertion of the race and the taxing aspects of cross-country shipping the respect they deserve, so instead Hence will settle in at Churchill for a six-week gap between starts. This colt is filling in and muscling up nicely; if he grows into his pedigree's potential, he could have a legitimate shot to take down one of the top four Derby placings.

20. (N/A) IT'S YOUR NICKEL (c, Dialed In—Bold American, by Quiet American) O-Harold Lerner LLC, AWC Stables, Scott K. Akman & Nehoc Stables. B-Stephen Wigmore (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $100,000 Ylg '15 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-3-0-0, $140,220.

Mar. 28 TDN Top 20 Rank: N/A

Last Start: 1st, John Battaglia Memorial S., TP, Mar. 4

Next Start: GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 50

Spot No. 20 could have gone to one of the runner-ups in either the Louisiana or Florida Derbies, yet neither horse was truly getting to the winner and neither caught the eye in compelling fashion. But It's Your Nickel has comparable experience and more intriguing past performance lines, even if his sequence of preps does not exactly fit the traditional Derby contender profile. He sports a two-turn turf maiden win at Saratoga at age two, a dirt win via disqualification at Fair Grounds in January, and a Polytrack score in the $100,000 Battaglia S. at Turfway in which he careened from seventh at the quarter pole to blast clear by six and a half lengths after not “handling the track real well” according to jockey James Graham. He's posted three decent workouts at Keeneland since then and will go off as a long shot attempting to crash a Blue Grass S. party that is laden with more recognizable Derby contenders.