Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeRosa: GII Risen Star S. – If it's possible for a longshot to be dead on the board, then Cool Arrow was just that, but the only thing that there was less of than money bet on him was the talent he showed in the race, as he never threatened and kept my bankroll at $1,200.
GII Fountain of Youth S. – I will get creative, and give Three Rules a chance in this spot. The Fountain of Youth is now many horse's penultimate Kentucky Derby prep versus its historic value as a race three out from the Derby, but even with that change I can't help but think of horses like Vicar and Booklet performing well in this race and thinking Three Rules is enough in their mold to warrant a shot at 12-1. Irish War Cry is the more likely winner, but there are a lot of interesting pace dynamics in this race, and Three Rules might get a better run than the favorite being to his inside while being able to rate behind Takaful and others expected to go from the inside. It's not a scenario I'd be crazy about at 9-10 like he was last time, but at 12-1, I'll take a shot with a talented horse. Selection: #7 Three Rules (12-1).
GIII Gotham S. – We'll stick with one of only two winners I've picked in the Gotham–El Areeb. He was my first winner when taking the Withers, and although I dug deep to try to oppose him here after reading that esteemed New York Andy Serling was against him, I just couldn't make a case for any other horse–which isn't to say someone else might not be value at post time if El Areeb is overbet, but there's no one I want to stick my neck out on 24 hours out. Selection: #4 El Areeb (6-5).
DiDonato: GII Risen Star S. – Local Hero got way loose like I'd hoped, but he might've gone a bit too fast and had to settle for third. Bankroll: $1160.
GII Fountain of Youth S. – This has got to be the best Derby prep we've seen thus far. While I really like Irish War Cry, I'm going to go for a bit more of a price with Beasley. Super game to fight back and narrowly break his maiden first out for a generally patient barn, Shackleford's most expensive yearling to date closed well behind a very loose leader to be second here Jan. 6. He found himself on the lead when stretching out to this trip Feb. 3, and while he ultimately proved not quite good enough to handle flashy 'TDN Rising Star' Battalion Runner on the day, he fought on well again while perhaps in a bit tight. I'm thinking Beasley might be best with a target to run at, and he'll hopefully get that here from the likes of Takaful. Speaking of Takaful, if Beasley scratches in favor of the Tampa Bay Derby next week, I'll use him as my alternate. I feel like there might be a reverse Frosted thing going on here and we might see something more like that impressive debut performance. Selection: #5 Beasley (6-1).
GIII Gotham S. – I still haven't quite figured out where El Areeb belongs among all sophomores, but I'm pretty sure where he fits in this bunch–he's way too good for them. Maybe as the distances get a little longer he'll be more vulnerable, but considering how happily he rated last time, it's hard to envision him turning in anything but another big effort here. Selection: #4 El Areeb (6-5).
Sherack: GII Risen Star S. – Mo Town didn't seem to have his mind on business in the post parade and couldn't have been any more disappointing reporting home a well-beaten fifth as the heavy favorite. May still be willing to give him another shot if he returns to the Big A for the Wood Memorial though. Bankroll: $590.
GII Fountain of Youth S. – After finishing a very good second in his 3-year-old debut in the GII Holy Bull S., Gunnevera looks primed for a big performance. The ultra-impressive GIII Delta Jackpot winner raced closer to the pace than he'd probably like to that day, and ran on well in defeat after encountering some trouble on the far turn. With plenty of additional pace signed on this time and a very advantageous inside draw, Gunnevera should be able to sit back and make one big run when ready. Selection: #2 Gunnevera (7-2).
GIII Gotham S. – Took a big swing against El Areeb in the GIII Withers S. and that was more than enough for me (at least until the Wood). He faces another big field here, but it's hard to imagine seeing a different result. Selection: #4 El Areeb (6-5).
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