Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeROSA – Bankroll $2,480
GIII Sunland Derby – The momentum I hoped to gain from Malagacy's Rebel S. win slowed down as much as he did in the final sixteenth mile of the race, as none of my picks scored points last week.
GI Florida Derby – The Florida and Louisiana Derbys offer new opportunities, however, and a study in how handicappers have to adapt on the Kentucky Derby trail. Sometimes you stick with your opinion and other times you face facts and change it, and that dichotomy is in play in the Florida Derby where I'll trust my read on Gunnevera that the Fountain of the Youth was the time for him but change my read on the Tampa Bay horses as dressed up by McCraken, who might not be as fast as some think. Tapwrit, however, is starting to win me over, and State of Honor has run well behind him each time. Not good enough to win those races, but good enough to take a shot with him here as a potentially $20 horse. Selection: #1 State of Honor (8-1).
GII Louisiana Derby – The Louisiana Derby looks more formful to me with Girvin and Local Hero the most logical. We'll get a much better price on the latter, and I think the front end could play well enough here to back him. Another personal trend I'm bucking this week is going with a Todd Pletcher-trained horse. His One Liner and Malagacy are my biggest scores to date this year, and neither Batallion Runner nor Patch would surprise me in the Florida or Louisiana Derby, respectively, but my read on them just isn't as strong as when he shipped to Oaklawn. Selection: #3 Local Hero (7-2).
DiDONATO – Bankroll: $1330.
GIII Sunland Derby – Everyone's original pick Kimbear scratched, and replacement play Oxford Lane made no impact at a big price. Luckily my competitors had equally forgettable weekends–need to catch a couple bombs in this final round of preps.
GI Florida Derby – If Battalion Runner doesn't scratch, he's my pick, but since he's expected to wait for a different spot, I'll treat this race as if he's not in it. State of Honor interests me most as a potential upsetter to Gunnevera, who will definitely be tough to beat. The Casse trainee has hung on well in each of his last two tries despite setting fast paces, and it seems like taking off the blinkers he wore in those runs will help him settle. He rallied from midpack when just missing in the Mucho Macho Man S. here first off the bench. Selection: #1 State of Honor (8-1).
GII Louisiana Derby – My original inclination was to go with Patch–I think he's got some talent, has a solid pedigree and Pletcher has obviously been doing well in the Derby preps this year. But he's going to take too much money for what I need at this point, and there's a longer shot who also caught my eye. Senior Investment seems like one who continues to step forward with each outing. He was wide throughout before crossing the wire first in a local optional claimer in January, only to be taken down for cutting off a foe turning for home. His stablemate It's Your Nickel was promoted via the DQ, and went on to romp by 6 1/2 lengths in the Battaglia at Turfway; the third finisher just missed at the same level next out; and the fourth-place runner subsequently cleared his first-level allowance condition while taking a major jump up on the Beyer scale. Senior Investment, meanwhile, shipped to Oaklawn and was very visually impressive mowing down an admittedly average group by three lengths. I just really liked how he finished up with big, bounding strides, and think nine panels and this long stretch should suit him very well. Selection: #4 Senior Investment (12-1).
SHERACK – Bankroll: $4390
GIII Sunland Derby – Didn't get much going last weekend–rolled a pair of sevens Saturday, then scratched into Hedge Fund, who set a fast pace and stayed on for third at 7-1 in Sunday's Sunland Derby–but neither did my two opponents… You guys had your chance, time for me to increase my lead now.
GI Florida Derby – Can't see Always Dreaming exactly offering much value, but just don't see too many other options. Was on my radar as a 2-year-old while under the tutelage of trainer Dominick Schettino, and he's continued to take it to the next level since stretching in distance in two attempts for Todd Pletcher in 2017. Stamped himself as one to watch with a tour-de-force maiden win at Tampa, then set a glacial pace and did what he had to in a Gulfstream optional claimer at the Florida Derby distance last time. Should sit a perfect stalk-and-pounce trip this time around and enjoy first run on the clear-cut horse to beat and heavy favorite Gunnevera. Flashy worktab since adds to his appeal. Selection: #4 Always Dreaming (4-1).
GII Louisiana Derby – The lightly raced Patch looks poised for a breakout effort in his two-turn debut and could sit a perfect trip from his rail draw. A solid, late-running second in his debut sprinting at Gulfstream, the well-bred bay kept coming to earn his diploma going a mile in Hallandale, good for an 89 Beyer Speed Figure and a 3 on Thoro-Graph. More distance should be exactly what this son of Union Rags is looking for–he's produced by a winning A.P. Indy mare and his stakes-winning second dam by Unbridled is a full-sister to champion Banshee Breeze. This is a serious Triple Crown prospect for the already loaded Todd Pletcher stable. Selection: #1 Patch (9-2).
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