TDN Derby Top 12 Mar. 17 Edition

Last weekend was a busy one on the road to the GI Kentucky Derby, as two major preps helped sort things out a bit. 'TDN Rising Star' Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy) scored a mild upset in the GII San Felipe S. to zoom up the charts. To say the least, he looks as good as anyone among the Southern California

3-year-old contingent. At Tampa Bay Downs, the Todd Pletcher barn showed that it indeed has some major players, as it ran one-two in the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. The biggest disappointment out of that race was Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway), who was a lackluster seventh and drops out of the TDN Top 12. There is only one prep this weekend, but it's a rich one. The Oaklawn division of Derby hopefuls will clash in Saturday's $900,000 GII Rebel S.

1. MOHAYMEN (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)

O-Shadwell Stable. B-Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Kiaran McLaughlin.

Sales history: $2,200,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30

1st GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 28; 1st GII Nashua S., AQU, Nov. 4

Next Start: GI Florida Derby., GP, Apr. 2

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: 1

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Andrew Caulfield on Mohaymen

Obviously, the bettors believe in Mohaymen, as he closed at 7-2 in Round 3 of the Derby Future Wager. Considering that the favorite in the race itself often goes off at 4-1 or higher, people might have made a foolish bet. Then again, maybe this horse is just that good. The odds in the GI Florida Derby will be very interesting. Our guess? Mohaymen will be 3-5 and Nyquist (Uncle Mo) will be 8-5. It doesn't look like trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is tightening the screws that much this soon. Mohaymen's last two works have been four-furlong breezes in :49 3/5 and :49 2/5, respectively.

2. NYQUIST (c, Uncle Mo—Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)

O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Summerhill Farm (Ky). T-Doug O'Neill.

Sales history: $400,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $230,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP; $180,000 Wlg '13 KEENOV.

Last Start: 1st, GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31; 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Sept. 26; 1st, GI Del Mar Futurity, DMR, Sept. 7; 1st GII Best Pal S., DMR, Aug. 8

Next Start: GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: 2

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Andrew Caulfield on Nyquist

Nyquist closed at 7-1 in the Derby Future Wager, third behind Mohaymen (Tapit) and “all others.” That shows he's still not getting a lot of respect, despite his undefeated record. That, of course, can all change in the GI Florida Derby, where he is scheduled to meet Mohaymen. Should the 2015 champion juvenile male beat that adversary, he may just go from the most under-appreciated horse in the sport to the most-hyped horse in the sport. Trainer Doug O'Neill reports that Nyquist will not work over the Gulfstream surface prior to the Florida Derby.

3. DANZING CANDY (c, Twirling Candy—Talkin and Singing, by Songandaprayer)

O-Halo Farms, Jim & Diane Bashor. B-Halo Farms. T-Clifford W. Sise, Jr.

Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12

Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Andrew Caulfield on Danzing Candy

The 'TDN Rising Star' is the real deal, indeed. Danzing Candy's credentials were relatively modest coming into the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita, as his biggest win had come in a first-level allowance race. Facing seasoned graded-stakes winners, including West Coast favorite Mor Sprit (Eskendereya), he looked to be up against it. Instead, he scored a decisive victory, winning by two lengths under big-money rider Mike Smith. There was nothing lucky about his win and none of his competitors appeared to have any excuses. Danzing Candy was just better than they were. Some will still be skeptical, but a score in the GI Santa Anita Derby will mean he will be among the favorites in the GI Kentucky Derby.

4. MOR SPIRIT (r, Eskendereya–Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)

O-Michael Lund Petersen. B-Elkstone Group LLC (PA). T-Bob Baffert.

Sales history: $650,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $85,000 Ylg '14 FTKOCT.

Last Start: 2nd, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Robert B. Lewis S., Feb. 6, SA; 1st, GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 19

Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: 3

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Andrew Caulfield on Mor Spirit

Mor Spirit's performance in the GII San Felipe S. was far from poor, as there's no disgrace in running second in a Grade II stake filled with quality. But, he is no longer at the head of the class when it comes to the California-based horses prepping for the GI Santa Anita Derby and the GI Kentucky Derby. That title now belongs to 'TDN Rising Star' Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy). That doesn't mean that Mor Sprit can't rebound in the GI Santa Anita Derby or even on the first Saturday in May, but, for him, the San Felipe was a definite step backwards. Then again, never count out Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

5. GUN RUNNER (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway)

O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimneys Farm. B-Besilu Stables. T-Steve Asmussen.

Last Start: 1st, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20

Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: 5

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Andrew Caulfield on Gun Runner

Gun Runner is not a homebred, but he also didn't go through the sales ring. The story? Co-owner Ron Winchell explains, “We saw him at a 2-year-old sale and thought he was an absolute standout. Three Chimneys was the seller and they didn't want to let him go. So we bought half of him privately and a partnership was born. Three Chimneys had bought the mare Quiet Giant from [breeder] Besilu [Stables] and that's the source of their ownership.” The GII Louisiana Derby will be a big step for this horse, who some believe benefitted from a rail bias in his win in the GII Risen Star S. Feb. 20.

6. SHAGAF (c, Bernardini—Muhaawara, by Unbridled's Song)

O/B-Shadwell Stable. T-Chad Brown

Last Start: 1st, GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 5

Next Start: GI Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Andrew Caulfield on Shagaf

Undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' Shagaf remains the “other” Shadwell horse, as Mohaymen (Tapit), who also has yet to taste defeat, has dominated all the headlines. But Shadwell Vice President/General Manager Rick Nichols said he wouldn't be shocked if the stable wins the GI Kentucky Derby with Shagaf. “I think either one of our horses is capable of winning the Kentucky Derby,” he said. “It wouldn't surprise me for Shagaf to beat Mohaymen and it wouldn't surprise me for Mohaymen to beat Shagaf. Shagaf might have a little more stamina in his pedigree and that's never a bad thing when it comes to the Derby. With the Derby, just about any horse that goes into the starting gate has a chance of winning because you have to have so much racing luck to win.”

7. GREENPOINTCRUSADER (c, Bernardini—Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance)

O-St. Elias Stable, MeB Racing Stables LLC & Brooklyn Boyz Stable. B-Oakbrook Farm (Ky). T-Dominick Schettino.

Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.

Last Start: 2nd, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 30

Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: 7

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

If you wonder why Greenpointcrusader is continually ranked so high in our Top 12 list, go back and watch his performance in the GI Champagne S. It was nothing short of electric, arguably the best race by any 2-year-old male last year. The question is, will he ever run back to it? He didn't in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile or the GII Holy Bull S. That doesn't mean a huge effort isn't coming in the GII Louisiana Derby or even in the GI Kentucky Derby.

8. DESTIN (c, Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer)

O-Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC. B-James C. Weigel & Taylor Made Stallions Inc. T-Todd Pletcher

Sales history: $400,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP

Last Star: 1st, GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12

Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis, TAM, Feb. 13

Next Start: Undecided

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Remember when it looked like Todd Pletcher didn't have anything for the GI Kentucky Derby? He may not have the winner in his barn, but he's certainly not going to go into the race empty handed. After his win in the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, Destin might be the best of the Pletcher brigade. He won the GIII Sam F. Davis Feb. 13, but it looked like he took advantage of a poor group of opponents that day. The field for the Tampa Bay Derby was much stronger and it was a big step forward for this colt and the Pletcher barn, which went one-two in the race. Pletcher hasn't picked out a next start for this colt, but the GI Blue Grass S. would make sense.

9. MO TOM (c, Uncle Mo—Caroni, by Rubiano)

O-GMB Racing. B-Hargus & Sandra Sexton & Silver Fern Farm. T-Tom Amoss.

Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.

Last Start: 3rd, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII LeComte S., FG, Jan. 16; 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Nov. 1

Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: 9

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Mo Tom is owned by GMB Racing, which is the stable run by New Orleans Saints owner Tom Benson and his wife, Gayle. “I'm so excited I can't talk,” Tom Benson told nola.com after Mo Tom won the GIII LeComte S. and stablemate Tom's Ready (More Than Ready) finished second. “This was a great day for us. I expected [Mo Tom to win], but I didn't think [Tom's Ready] would come in there. But he ran a great race. We want both of them in the Kentucky Derby.” Tom's Ready finished seventh in the GII Risen Star S. Feb. 20.

10. EXAGGERATOR (c, Curlin—Dawn Raid, by Vindication)

O-Big Chief Racing. B-Joseph B. Murphy (Ky). T-Keith Desormeaux.

Sales history: $110,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.

Last Start: 3rd, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot, DED, Nov. 21; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 16

Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: 4

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Though Exaggerator was third in the GII San Felipe S., his effort on the day can be characterized as a disappointment. No one held it against him that he was beaten in the GII San Vicente S., since it was a seven-furlong race and he had to deal with champion juvenile male Nyquist (Uncle Mo). Everything pointed to major improvement in the San Felipe and it didn't really pan out. He was just ok and looked like the third-best horse in the race. Can he do better in the GI Santa Anita Derby? We'll see. Still waiting for this one to bring his A-game to a race.

11. MALIBU SUNSET (c, Bernardini–One Stormy Mama, by Storm Cat)

O-Gary & Mary West. B-Mike Abraham. T-Bob Baffert

Sales history: $240,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP; $190,000 RNA '13 FTKNOV

Last Start: 1st, Allowance, SA, Feb. 28

Next Start: Undecided

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: 10

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Hall of Famer Bob Baffert has yet to pick out a race for 'TDN Rising Star' Malibu Sunset and it will be interesting to see what he chooses. His next start will be only the third of his career, so does he want to send him out against the heavyweights in a race like the GI Santa Anita Derby or the GI Blue Grass S.? If he doesn't and picks a lesser spot, will that have him ready for an assignment as tough as the GI Kentucky Derby? Still wondering if maybe the best course of action would be to sit out the Derby and point for the GI Preakness S. at Old Hilltop or something else?

12. ZULU (c, Bernardini–Temporada, by Summer Squall)

O-Stonestreet Stables LLC, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith. B-Ron Magers & Robert Marcocchio. T-Todd Pletcher

Sales history: $900,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $400,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP

Last Start: 2nd, GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27

Next Start: Undecided

Mar. 9 TDN Top 12 Rank: 12

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

'TDN Rising Star' Zulu would earn a $1-million bonus should he win the GI Florida Derby, as would any horse sold at last year's Fasig-Tipton Florida Sale held at Gulfstream Park. But even with that incentive, trainer Todd Pletcher is saying it's likely this colt will head elsewhere, and for good reason. Pletcher doesn't fancy Zulu's chances in the Hallandale oval's premier fixture against the top two GI Kentucky Derby hopefuls– in the undefeated pair of champion juvenile male Nyquist (Uncle Mo) and Mohaymen (Tapit). Pletcher now has a handful of GI Kentucky Derby candidates and will have to do quite a juggling act if he wants to: a) skip the Florida Derby and b) keep all his horses apart in the next round of Kentucky Derby preps.

Click sire's name for Progeny PPs; dam name for Stakes-Winning Pedigrees; last race for video replay.

ON THE BUBBLE:

Airoforce (Colonel John): Despite a dismal effort in the GII Risen Star S., he may yet make it to the GI Kentucky Derby, as trainer Mark Casse is mulling over the idea of giving him a shot in the GIII Spiral S. over the synthetic at Turfway Apr. 2.

Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway): Drops out of the TDN Top 12 with a seventh-place finish in the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. Perhaps, though, that race was too bad to be true?

Cherry Wine (Paddy O'Prado): The 'TDN Rising Star' tries to get back on track in the GII Rebel S. Mar. 19 after illness knocked him out of the GII Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth S. Feb. 27.

Creator (Tapit): By Tapit, trained by Steve Asmussen, owned by WinStar…would you really be shocked if he runs big in Oaklawn's GII Rebel S. this coming Saturday?

Cupid (Tapit): Only a maiden winner, but the Baffert mystique has got many excited about his future. Big test in the GII Rebel S.

Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat): Hasn't raced since Jan. 30 in the

GIII Withers S., but he has the credentials to get back into the mix.

Frank Conversation (Quality Road): The king of the Golden Gate preps is headed to Dubai for the G2 UAE Derby Mar. 26 and then, perhaps, back to the U.S. for the 'Run for the Roses.'

Forevamo (Uncle Mo): Owner Evelyn Benoit is a delight. She'll be a media darling if this one makes it to the Derby.

Outwork (Uncle Mo): Though second in the GII Tampa Bay Derby behind stablemate Destin (Giant's Causeway), it was a big effort for the Todd Pletcher-trainee, who had never before gone beyond six furlongs.

Ralis (Square Eddie): Really never ran a lick in any race but the GI Hopeful S., but I can't ignore a Grade I winner. Let's see what he does in Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Park.

Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft): What do the post-position Gods have against this guy? After drawing the 13 hole in the

GIII Southwest S., he drew stall 14 for the GII Rebel S. Saturday.

Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull): Unless someone steps up and says he's being considered for the GI Kentucky Derby, this will be his last appearance on the list.

Click here to visit the Derby Top 12 section of our website, complete with video past performances, Equibase PPs, and Thoro-Graph sheets.