By Bill Finley
With only one race of consequence run last week on the road to the GI Kentucky Derby, the GII Risen Star S., there wasn't a lot of movement in this week's TDN Top 12. Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}) was the big story, as he vaulted all the way to fifth place on our list with his Risen Star victory. Airoforce (Colonel John) drops out after a dismal showing in the Risen Star and trainer Mark Casse's declaration that his colt is off the trail to Churchill Downs. This Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. is coming up huge and includes just about everyone's No. 1 in Mohaymen (Tapit), so there should be plenty to report about next week.
1. MOHAYMEN (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
O-Shadwell Stable. B-Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Kiaran McLaughlin.
Sales history: $2,200,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 28; 1st GII Nashua S., AQU, Nov. 4
Next Start: GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
People who aren't in love with Mohaymen (Tapit) are getting harder to find, but at least one respected observer of the Thoroughbred game is far from convinced he'll be the one to beat come Derby Day. Here's what clocker Bruno DeJulio had to say recently about the colt, “I think he's a wonderful horse and I'm not going to take anything away from him, but I don't believe he's a 10-furlong horse based on what I've seen from him mentally. He doesn't have a 'shut-off button' and I think to be a Derby horse or a winner at 10 furlongs, you have to have that ability to shut yourself off and he doesn't show me that. Most good horses, including American Pharoah, had the ability to shut themselves down and relax where they are not completely into every step of the race. Mohaymen, the way he gallops, the way he works, he lays his body down every single time, and that is a trait of Tapits. They have unbelievable bundled up energy.” That, of course, doesn't mean he can't win Saturday's assignment, the GII Fountain of Youth S. at a mile-and-a-sixteenth. Though facing a stellar lineup, he will be the heavy favorite.
2. NYQUIST (c, Uncle Mo—Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)
O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Summerhill Farm (Ky). T-Doug O'Neill.
Sales history: $400,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $230,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP; $180,000 Wlg '13 KEENOV.
Last Start: 1st, GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31; 1st, GI Front Runner S., SA, Sept. 26; 1st, GI Del Mar Futurity, DMR, Sept. 7; 1st GII Best Pal S., DMR, Aug. 8
Next Start: GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2
Yes, breeding is an inexact science. Seeking Gabrielle (Forestry), the dam of Nyquist (Uncle Mo), was meant to be a good horse. Her dam is Seeking Regina (Seeking the Gold), who won the GII Adirondack S. at Saratoga in 1994. Yet, Seeking Gabrielle couldn't run a lick. Her only win came in an $11,000 maiden claimer at Louisiana Downs and two starts later she was claimed for $12,500 by trainer Jerry Hardin. She concluded her career with an eighth-place finish in a 2008 allowance race at Delta Downs. But she has a talent, and it's as a broodmare. Her first foal is Nyquist, a multiple Grade I winner and a champion. Seeking Gabrielle has sold twice at auction since retiring, for $45,000 at Keeneland January in 2011 and for $100,000 at Keeneland November in 2013. Imagine what she is worth now? The shrewd buyer that day was Hinkle Farms. Things will be quiet over the next few weeks for Nyquist, as he won't race again until the Apr. 2 GI Florida Derby.
3. MOR SPIRIT (r, Eskendereya–Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)
O-Michael Lund Petersen. B-Elkstone Group LLC (PA). T-Bob Baffert.
Sales history: $650,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $85,000 Ylg '14 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 1st, https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/0/201512191855L7D8/GIII Robert B. Lewis S., Feb. 6, SA
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 19
Next Start: Undecided
Andrew Caulfield on Mor Spirit
After a weird Tuesday morning when he was eased in a workout, Mor Spirit (Eskendereya) is none the worse for wear, trainer Bob Baffert reports. It seems the 3-year-old star was just displaying his quirky side. That's good news for the Baffert stable, as Mor Spirit looks like far and away the best 3-year-old in the barn. Baffert still isn't certain where the horse will race next. He may go in the GII San Felipe S. or skip that race and go right into the GI Santa Anita Derby. With Nyquist (Uncle Mo) about to leave town and head to Gulfstream Park, Mor Spirit looks like he might have the runs of things for now in Southern California.
4. EXAGGERATOR (c, Curlin—Dawn Raid, by Vindication)
O-Big Chief Racing. B-Joseph B. Murphy (Ky). T-Keith Desormeaux.
Sales history: $110,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 2nd, GII San Vicente S. ,SA, Feb. 15
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Delta Jackpot, DED, Nov. 21; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 16
Next Start: GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Trainer Keith Desormeaux has spent much of his career working in the shadow of brother Kent, the Hall of Fame jockey. That had a lot to do with Kent's success on the racetrack and Keith's more moderate success. Keith trained for 22 years before winning a graded-stakes race, which he accomplished in 2013 with I've Struck a Nerve (Yankee Gentlemen) in the GII Risen Star S. Even that win seemed like a fluke as the horse went off at 135-1 and never raced again. But Desormeaux has proven in recent years that he is good at what he does, and very well could be the most improved trainer in the sport over the last four or five years. He won five graded stakes in 2015 and 11 stakes overall and had a career best year in earnings with $3,834,257. In 2014, he won his first Grade I event, the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile with Texas Red (Afleet Alex). With Exaggerator (Curlin) poised to be a major player on the road to the GI Kentucky Derby, Keith may finally become known for something other than being Kent's big brother.
5. GUN RUNNER (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimneys Farm. B-Besilu Stables. T-Steve Asmussen.
Last Start: 1st, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Andrew Caulfield on Gun Runner
Gun Runner made a major jump in this week's TDN Top 12, going from an “on the bubble” horse to claiming the fifth spot on our list. He did so with a solid win over a solid bunch in the GII Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. It was his first stakes win, but it hardly came as a surprise since he had won two of three prior starts and his lone defeat came in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., where he was fourth. That race, contested Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs, is looking more and more like the best 2-year-old race run last year as Mor Spirit (Eskendereya), Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) and now Gun Runner have all come out of it to win graded stakes races in their next starts. Well bred and in the crafty hands of Steve Asmussen, he is one to be reckoned with.
6. GREENPOINTCRUSADER (c, Bernardini—Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance)
O-St. Elias Stable, MeB Racing Stables LLC & Brooklyn Boyz Stable. B-Oakbrook Farm (Ky). T-Dominick Schettino.
Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 2nd, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 30
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Jerry Brown, of Thoro-Graph, doesn't believe people should overlook Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini). “Due to ground loss, Greenpointcrusader ran almost as fast as Mohaymen [in the GII Holy Bull S.], and the dam has thrown three horses that ran negative figures,” Brown notes. Unlike the Beyer figures, the Thoro-Graph numbers take into account how much ground a horse loses on the turns. According to Trakus, Greenpointcrusader ran 13 feet farther than Mohaymen (Tapit) did in the Holy Bull. As for Greenpointcrusader's fast siblings, the ones that have also run negative numbers on the sheets are Justin Phillip (First Samurai), Keyed Entry (Honour and Glory) and Successful Mission (Successful Appeal).
7. AWESOME BANNER (c, Awesome of Course—Miranda Stands, by Zamindar)
O/B-Jacks Or Better Farm, Inc. T-Stanley Gold.
Last Start: 1st, GII Swale S., GP, Jan. 30
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Hutcheson S., GP, Jan. 2
Next Start: GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Andrew Caulfield on Awesome Banner
His connections had considered sending him to the GII Tampa Bay Derby instead of the GII Fountain of Youth S., but confirmed yesterday that they will race Saturday at Gulfstream. “We decided to stay here with him because this is where we are stabled,” trainer Stanley Gold said. “It was not a hard decision. [Gulfstream] is our home turf, he's doing good, the race is just a few days away. Why enter into the unknown and go to a track he's never been to? We eliminate a lot of variables by staying here.” Everyone knows this is a very fast horse, but can he go two turns and excel at a mile-and-a-sixteenth? “We'll see on Saturday,” Gold said. “We can't predict the future. I've done what I can, we'll run him and we'll see.”
8. BRODY'S CAUSE (c, Giant's Causeway—Sweet Breanna, by Sahm)
O-Albaugh Family Stable. B-Gabriel Duignan, William Arvin Jr & Petaluma (Ky). T-Dale Romans.
Sales: $350,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 3rd, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3
Next Start: GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12
Brody's Cause will be the last horse in the current TDN Top 12 to make his 3-year-old debut, which isn't scheduled to occur until the Mar. 12 Tampa Bay Derby. Should he win, will trainers start thinking more and more about purposefully getting off to a late start? Last year's Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) made his 3-year-old debut at virtually the same time, beginning his campaign in the Mar. 14 GII Rebel S. According to Thoro-Graph data, trainer Dale Romans wins at a 14% rate with horses who have not raced for 90 days or more. This is a good horse who should improve this year, as he shows signs of late development.
9. MO TOM (c, Uncle Mo—Caroni, by Rubiano)
O-GMB Racing. B-Hargus & Sandra Sexton & Silver Fern Farm. T-Tom Amoss.
Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 3rd, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII LeComte S., FG, Jan. 16; 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Nov. 1
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Even though Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) was third in the GII Risen Star S., he has moved up in our rankings as he turned in a very good performance in which he had to overcome a tough trip. Here's what the Equibase chart caller saw from Mo Tom, “Mo Tom raced inside on the first turn, lagged at the rear while under some urging, was ridden along while two to three wide on the far turn, dropped closer to the rail late on that bend, gained into the stretch, checked and swerved in when Bistraya drifted in front of him at the three-sixteenths, regained momentum while moving out outside the furlong marker and finished fast, but was too late.” After losing by just 1 1/2 lengths he may even be the favorite in the GII Louisiana Derby Mar. 26.
10. SHAGAF (c, Bernardini–Muhaawara, by Unbridled's Song)
O/B-Shadwell Stable. T-Chad Brown
Last Start: 1st, Allowance Race, GP, Jan. 29
Next Start: GIII Gotham, AQU, Mar. 5
Trainer Chad Brown has a bunch of Derby contenders, but all of them, at the moment, are hovering near the bottom of most Top 10/Top Dozen lists. That doesn't mean that Brown won't have a major player come May 7. He's as good as any trainer in the country and is just now starting to show that he has what it takes to develop a major dirt 3-year-old. Shagaf (Bernardini) may be his best hope this year, as the horse is unbeaten in two career starts. He was given a 78 Beyer number in his recent allowance win and will have to prove that he can run much faster.
11. FRANK CONVERSATION (c, Quality Road—Rushen Heat, by Unusual Heat)
O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Marc Keller. T-Doug O'Neill.
Sales history: $65,000 Ylg '14 FTKOCT; $120,000 2yo '15 OBSMAR
Last Start: 1st, GIII El Camino Real Derby, GG, Feb. 13
Accomplishments Include: 1st, California Derby, GG, Jan. 16
Next Start: G2 UAE Derby, MEY, Mar. 26
Frank Conversation (Quality Road) probably isn't a star, but he has been very well managed by owner Paul Reddam and trainer Doug O'Neill. He shipped to Northern California to win two stakes up there against easy company and could be in line for a huge payday in the $2 million GII UAE Derby Mar. 26, which usually doesn't come up that strong. If you look at his Thoro-Graph sheet, it's hard to picture him as a major player on the Derby trail in the U.S. as he usually runs in the “8 neighborhood,” much slower than the top horses on this list.
12. SMOKEY IMAGE (c, Southern Image–Special Smoke, by Free House)
O-Irvin Racing Stable. B-C Punch Ranch, Inc. T-Carla Gaines.
Last Start: 1st, Cal Cup Derby, SA, Jan. 30
Accomplishments Include: 1st, Golden State Juvenile S., DMR, Oct. 30; 1st, I'm Smokin S., DMR, Sept. 4; 1st, Cavonnier Juvenile S., SR, Aug. 16; 1st, Everett Nevin S., OTP, July 5
Next Star: GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Is he the next California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit)? Why not? The 2014 GI Kentucky Derby winner was also a California-bred who won two stakes also on the resume of Smokey Image (Southern Image), the Golden State Juvenile and the Cal Cup Derby. Like California Chrome, Smokey Image will hope to burst into prominence against open graded-stakes company in the GII San Felipe S., a race California Chrome won by 7 1/4 lengths. For this one, the San Felipe will be a huge test
Click sire's name for Progeny PPs; dam name for Stakes-Winning Pedigrees; last race for video replay.
ON THE BUBBLE:
Awesome Speed (Awesome Again): One of many who will have something to prove in loaded GII Fountain of Youth. Beat a weak bunch in the Mucho Macho Man S.
Cherry Wine (Paddy O'Prado): Connections will have to go to Plan B after he had to withdraw from GII Fountain of Youth S. due to a cough and slight fever.
Conquest Big E (Tapit): With Airoforce (Colonel John) off the Derby trail after his poor showing in the GII Risen Star S., this one looks like Mark Casse's only hope to land his first GI Kentucky Derby.
Collected (City Zip): A lot of people are giving up on this one because he was a non-threatening fourth in the GIII Southwest S. Too early to do so, considering he is trained by Bob Baffert.
Destin (Giant's Causeway): A $400,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase, he's flying under the radar for Todd Pletcher. Won the GIII Sam F. Davis S., but competition was light that day.
Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy): Recent allowance winner, we really won't know how good this 'TDN Rising Star' is until he faces heavyweights in the GII San Felipe S.
Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat): After an absence of one full month, he returned to the work tab Feb. 21, going a half-mile in :49.05 on the Belmont training track. His next start will be in either the GI Wood Memorial or the GI Blue Grass S..
Forevamo (Uncle Mo): Though dismissed at 40-1, the son of Uncle Mo ran a bang-up second in the GII Risen Star S. to prove he belongs with the big boys.
Rally Cry (Uncle Mo): If you like Shagaf (Bernardini), you have to like this one a little bit, too. He finished third behind Shagaf in a Gulfstream allowance race in which he had a brutal trip.
Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft): GIII Southwest S. winner certainly has a good closing kick as he rallied to win at Oaklawn after racing 14th and last early. A late foal [May 2], he will celebrate his birthday during Derby week.
Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull): Connections still saying “probably not” to Derby.
Zulu (Bernardini): The GII Fountain of Youth S. will be a huge race for this colt and entire Pletcher stable. Will the Todd Squad have a legitimate GI Kentucky Derby contender this year? That question will be far easier to answer after Saturday.
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