For Air Force Blue (War Front), Saturday's G1 Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket represents a watershed moment, particularly now that the wintry burst to envelop Britain has created an atmosphere more akin to the jump racing that has played such a prominent role in recent weeks. Denied the kind of slick surface that Newmarket Heath's chalk downland turf is renowned for providing, the dashing bay–who has already managed the unique treble of G1 Keeneland Phoenix S., G1 Goffs Vincent O'Brien National S. and G1 Dubai Dewhurst S.–has an extra obstacle to overcome as he bids to convert juvenile prowess into Classic proof. Not since El Gran Senor in 1984 has a colt with such dominant dirt breeding triumphed in this race, but if there is one special case to buck a trend, Air Force Blue could be it.
“He's always been very quick and has a lot of natural speed; that's why we are hoping he gets a mile,” Aidan O'Brien said. “He's a horse who loves his work, enjoys his work and wants to please all the time. He's a very easy horse to train and I suppose the problem we have with him is over-training him. He's very relaxed and not influenced by anything at home; he's a nice independent thinker and is not a heavy-bodied horse. He covers the ground easily and economically. He really is a joy to train.”
Thursday night's easing of conditions brings others more into play, with two who have proven ability on rain-softened ground in Stormy Antarctic (GB) (Stormy Atlantic) and Marcel (Ire) (Lawman {Fr}). The former took advantage of the thunderstorm that preceded the course-and-distance Apr. 14 G3 Craven S. to brush aside Foundation (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}), who had been extremely unlucky when third behind Marcel in the G1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in October. Perhaps too prominently ridden when second to Air Force Blue's stable companion Johannes Vermeer (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) in the G1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud in November, he impressed with the way he went through the Craven under waiting tactics.
“I think it is a wide-open race,” trainer Ed Walker commented. “Air Force Blue is daunting opposition, as he is a three-time Group 1 winner, but it is much more open than the betting suggests. I don't think soft ground is vital at all, as [Stormy Antarctic] is a very good-moving horse. It is by default rather than design that he has run on soft ground so much. He copes with it very well, but I don't think it is a necessity.”
Marcel, who was stepping up off a Newcastle maiden win when beating Johannes Vermeer at 33-1 in the Racing Post Trophy, will be bidding to provide trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam with only a second edition following the exploits of Rodrigo de Triano in 1992. He will be partnered by Pat Smullen, and he said, “Air Force Blue is the horse to beat, as he was very impressive last year, but it's a horse race at the end of the day and anything can happen, and I could not be more pleased with the one I'm going to ride in the race. I think he would get further, but there's no doubt he's not short of pace. I think a mile at the moment is ideal for him. Going into the race without a run holds no fears at all, as we know Peter can ready one for the day.”
One who would not have needed the recent rain is Godolphin's Buratino (Ire) (Exceed and Excel {Aus}), who remains the sole conqueror of Air Force Blue in Royal Ascot's G2 Coventry S. in June. Subsequently third behind that rival on ground similar to this in the Phoenix at The Curragh in August, the chestnut signed off with a half-length second to Shalaa (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) in the six-furlong G1 Middle Park S. here in September. Trainer Mark Johnston sees the step-up in trip as well within his compass.
“He won the Coventry over six furlongs at Royal Ascot, but I never saw him as an out-and-out sprinter,” he explained. “He has been working well since his first gallops early in the year. He is a very easy horse.”
James Doyle gets the leg up in search of a first Guineas winner and added, “He worked well at Haydock and gave me a great feel [in a racecourse gallop] on the Rowley Mile and has a great nature. He was running down Shalaa in the last half furlong [in the Middle Park], plus he's really relaxed so they are positive signs [for staying].”
Unsurprisingly, Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum's Massaat (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}) is the only beaten rival from the Dewhurst to re-oppose the Ballydoyle supremo, but he entered that contest lacking vital experience and may be able to shorten the 3 1/4-length margin with a winter's strengthening behind him. Trainer Owen Burrows, who took over from Barry Hills at the end of last season, has a big day ahead of him. “Air Force Blue beat him by 3 1/4-lengths in the Dewhurst, but the winner was match-hardened then, having already won a Group 1 and been to Royal Ascot, while Massaat was big and raw and was coming straight from a maiden race,” he said. “I would like to think that we will at least be able to narrow the gap on Saturday. It is hard to say what Massaat's ideal trip will be at this stage, as he has such a good temperament and relaxes in his races, so I'm sure that he will get 10 furlongs if we need him to. Paul [Hanagan] is adamant he has the speed needed to be competitive over a mile.”
Second, before being demoted to fifth, in Maisons-Laffitte's G3 Prix Djebel over seven furlongs Apr. 7, Godolphin's Ribchester (Ire) (Iffraaj {GB}) pulled too hard on that occasion and will need to curb his enthusiasm if he is to last out this mile and be competitive. Second when still a maiden in the G2 Gimcrack S. at York in August, he was impressive when taking the G2 Mill Reef S. over six furlongs at Newbury the following month and does have adequate stamina in his pedigree. “He's very fit and very well. We've got the favourite to beat, but take him out and it's probably just a Group 2, so we'll take our chance and see what happens,” trainer Richard Fahey said. “I think we'll go on any ground and I think he is on a par with Wootton Bassett–we do like him.”
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