Worst To…Well….Not Half-Bad

by Steve DeCaspers

Last week I wrote that there were only a few dozen horseplayers at the DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship who had the knowledge, abilities and temperament to take down the $800,000 top prize. Well, I was right: The NHC Final Table was littered with people who would have made that list, including eventual winner Paul Matties, his brother Duke, noted horse and poker tournament pro Dave Gutfreund and former champion Stanley Bavlish.

My NHC Preview was on target about a few other things as well:

• I believed that investing the time and money necessary to play Wednesday's “Last Chance” Tournament would provide a valuable warm-up for the main event. It was, as I placed eighth of 225 and won a second Entry into the NHC.

• I anticipated that taking shorter prices would be a key to success, especially on Thursday. My Day 1 was saved at the end by two consecutive winners–at normally unplayable odds of 4-1 and 9-2.

• I pegged the target score for making the top 10% cut and qualifying for Saturday's semi-final at $167. It turned out to be $170.

So when I finished Day 2 of the NHC in 22nd place with $196.80 and made the semi-final round, I wondered if the “Worst to First” fairy tale scenario that I wrote about might also be about to come true. Ultimately, it didn't. I finished 36th, winning $11,400, a result that will rank among my most satisfying horseplaying achievements to date.

However, I left Las Vegas with competing feelings of satisfaction and disappointment. The TDN audience of owners, breeders and horsemen might find it comparable to running 5th in the Kentucky Derby: It's a great accomplishment, where you've beaten most of the competition, won a little money and received compliments from friends and family for “how close you came.” But in the end, all that's left to contemplate is “what could have been?” I was $11,400 richer, but after four days of high-intensity handicapping, I was mentally, physically and emotionally exhausted. Here are a couple of key moments from the competition.

Thursday–An Ominous Start…

Winning a second entry on Wednesday was a double-edged sword. I was infused with confidence, but also burdened by the organizational requirements and strategic questions posted by managing two entries. Should I play the same horses on both tickets early, hoping to score points on both then have flexibility later in the tournament? Or should I spread my plays separately across entry early on, trying to score enough points on one to set me up for Day 2?

Ultimately, I took the latter approach, but when I struck out on my first five plays (three on Entry 1, two on Entry 2), I began to have traumatic flashbacks to my ineptitude last year. My five-race winless streak led me to question my instincts around the fourth at Aqueduct, where I had identified $14,000 claimer Fleet First as a potential longshot selection. I decided to pass the race, assuring myself that the 7-1 odds were unacceptable for a horse that I wanted to play at a minimum of 10-1. However, when Mike Luzzi guided Fleet First to victory, I came mentally and emotionally unglued.

Fortunately, my handicapping partner and best friend of 35 years Brent Schraff was prepared for this contingency: He proceeded to give me a motivational speech filled with quotes from Rocky, Deepak Chopra and our 8th Grade basketball coach. My next mandatory race selection finished a distant second, and paid $3.40. It wasn't much, but it broke the streak and got me on the right track. I finished the day with a few more placings and a couple of 4-1 winners. I wasn't in prime position to start Day 2, with my entries placed in 298th and 332nd, but I hadn't eliminated myself with a disastrous performance.

A $10,000 Mistake…

After a Day 1 where only one horse really “jumped off the page” for me, Friday's card was a welcome change. There were six or seven horses that I truly liked and was committed to playing. Four of those horses won at odds of 5-1 or better, but I only scored points on three of them. How is that possible?

In the middle of Day 2, there was a flurry of activity where about a dozen races go off within 45 minutes. I was caught up in the excitement, since I had connected on a 25-1 shot at Gulfstream Park as well as the three “commitment” horses that I had ident

ified the previous night. As I was tallying up my points and trying to figure out where I was relative to my target score, the horses neared the gate for the fourth at Santa Anita. Brent asked, “Didn't you have a horse in here?” Being in the zone, I consulted my sheet and saw that I had written down “Santa Anita 4th–#6.” I burst out of my seat, sprinted to the machine and typed in the bet as fast as I could. My amazing day continued, as my choice sat just off the pace, ranged up on the outside and cruised to a 5-1 victory.

It was reasonable to assume that this score would catapult me into the top five of the standings, until I looked down at my ticket and saw that I had not bet the 6 horse in the fourth at Santa Anita; my ticket was for the 6 horse in the seventh race at Santa Anita. How did this happen? I looked to Brent for a pep talk, but all he could do was shake his head in disgust.

Despite the mistake, I took consolation in the fact that I would still make the top 10% and move on to semi-final Saturday. But it became all the more painful when results were tallied at the end of the day and I found out that punching the ticket correctly would have won me the prize for the top daily score–a $10,000 entry into the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge. An NHC competitor trying to manage two tickets has to be organized, decisive and careful–my failure on those accounts cost me a VIP trip to Santa Anita for racing's biggest day.

Decompression…

Qualifying tournaments for the 2017 NHC begin this weekend, but I won't be playing. I have enough self-awareness to know that I'd be throwing my entry fees away and coming back too soon. I'd probably bounce. Plus, there will be scores of opportunities throughout the year.

Instead, I'm going to take a vacation with my wife and plot my schedule on the NHC Tour for 2016. Jonathon Kinchen (who failed to make the top 10% at the NHC despite a strong Day 1) has already announced his intent to pursue a repeat of his 2015 NHC Tour dominance. I think I'm going to try to give him, and the other big-time players, a run for their money.

But I'll also have a rooting interest in seeing several other players qualify for the 2017 NHC. There were three people–I won't name them here–who posted scores of zero and tied for dead last at this year's NHC. They should know that what's past is past, and that anything is possible next year.

I may not have gone from worst to first, but worst to 36th was very, very fun.

Steve DeCaspers is a former staffer at The TDN. He lives in Chicago with his wife Bethany and their dog Popeye. Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveDeCaspers