WinStar TDN Derby Top Twelve for Feb. 14

by T.D. Thornton

1. MCCRAKEN (c, Ghostzapper">Ghostzapper—Ivory Empress, by Seeking the Gold)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY). T-Ian R. Wilkes. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-4-0-0, $310,848.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 1

Last Start: 1st, GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 11

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 26, 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 30

Next start: GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 11

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on McCraken

KY Derby Points: 20

Last week, McCraken inherited the top spot on this list when juvenile champ Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile) faltered in his sophomore debut. This week, the undefeated son of Ghostzapper (Awesome Again) controlled his own destiny, and he not only retained the No. 1 ranking, but widened the talent gap back to his divisional peers in assertive fashion, dismantling a decent Sam F. Davis S. field in track-record time. McCracken's appeal stems from a sense of unflappability and maturity, and both contribute to the in-race impression that this 'TDN Rising Star' is in control of his own space at all times while measuring his effort so that at no point does he appear overextended. That Tampa try was McCraken's first outing since Nov. 26, and trainer Wilkes said “I knew I didn't have him 110% for this race.” After being pushed out mildly at the break, McCraken methodically took up residence at the rail behind the main body of the field, saved ground down the backstretch, had the reins shaken at him to angle out 3 1/2 furlongs from the wire, then cornered into the stretch four wide, full of run, striding out willingly. McCraken showed nice spark when roused inside the final furlong, and never appeared to reach bottom under light left-handed encouragement (posted final quarter of :24.93) before galloping out smartly. Wilkes confirmed that the Tampa Bay Derby on Mar. 11 will be one of two preps on McCraken's pre-Louisville agenda.

2. MASTERY (c, Candy Ride (Arg)—Steady Course, by Old Trieste)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Cheyenne Stables, LLC. B-Stone Farm (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $425,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $271,200.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 2

Last Start: 1st, GI Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity, LRC, Dec. 10

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Bob Hope S., DMR, Nov. 19

Next start: Either GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 11 or GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 18

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Mastery

KY Derby Points: 10

While Mastery was minding his own business at Santa Anita, there was a brief window time before the running of last Saturday's Davis S. when I had to consider a contingency plan in case McCraken didn't fire in his comeback try. Would Mastery, by attrition, have inherited the No. 1 ranking? I can't quite say I would have pulled the trigger and moved him all the way up to the top. Part of my reluctance can be explained by something behaviorists call the “recency bias.” Applied to Derby contenders, that theory explains how horses that have run well recently–like Irish War Cry (Curlin)–tend to stand out in our minds, while talented performances that occurred some time ago–like Mastery's Los Alamitos Futurity win Dec. 10–aren't as heavily weighted when making comparisons. And because it's going to be at least three more weeks before we see this 'TDN Rising Star' in a race, that gap is only going to widen until Mastery provides us with another useful benchmark to assess him. This undefeated colt is still cemented in my mind as the top West Coast 3-year-old. But I need to see more than a maiden win and two five-horse-field stakes scores (both run in the seasonal lull after the Breeders' Cup) before considering this $425,000 KEESEP grad as the nationwide topper. Until then, Baffert has this colt on a training regimen that resembles the name of his dam–Steady Course.

3. MO TOWN (c, Uncle Mo—Grazie Mille, by Bernardini)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Team D. B-John D. Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock (KY). T-Anthony W. Dutrow. Sales History: $200,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $243,600.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 3

Last Start: 1st, GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 26

Next start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Mo Town

KY Derby Points: 10

On the East Coast, Mo Town is in the similar “recency” boat as Mastery above. He hasn't raced since winning the Nov. 26 Remsen S. We got a bit of a “who beat whom” line on him though, from the Davis S., although it was not flattering for Mo Town in that the horse who ran second behind him in the Remsen, No Dozing (Union Rags), fired a blank with a non-threatening sixth in that Tampa stakes try. Still, the upside for this 'TDN Rising Star' has been evident since before his debut, and his progression of races–second at Saratoga behind a well-meant fave, a win by open lengths in the mud at Belmont, and a proficient, athletic, annexation of the Remsen prior to getting an early-winter freshening–portends a strong showing leading into 2017. Mo Town's last two workouts have both been bullet five-furlong moves, and although he had preliminarily been pointed for the Mar. 4 Gotham S. at Aqueduct, Daily Racing Form broke news Monday that trainer Dutrow now intends to ship Mo Town from Payson Park to Fair Grounds for the Risen Star S. on Feb. 25.

4. IRISH WAR CRY (c, Curlin">Curlin—Irish Sovereign, by Polish Numbers)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Isabelle de Tomaso (NJ). T-H. G. Motion. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $295,460.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 4

Last Start: 1st, GII Lambholm South Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4

Accomplishments: 1st, Marylander S., LRL, Jan. 23

Next Start: Likely for GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Irish War Cry

KY Derby Points: 10

If you want to take some whacks against Irish War Cry's chances of making it to the Derby as a top contender, there's low-hanging fruit you could try to pelt him with: He's a New Jersey-bred (a state that has only produced two Derby winners, and none since 1934), he's very light on seasoning (a May 2 foal that has raced only three times), and his only win outside of Maryland came as a first-time-Lasix user in the Holy Bull S. when the 1-2 favorite (Classic Empire) essentially threw in a non-performance. But if you pile on too many negatives, you'll be obfuscating the fact that this dynamic Curlin (Smart Strike) colt is capable of flashing raw, malleable talent fused with sire-side class. It's a further bonus that Irish War Cry's program is being managed by a cerebral, horse-first trainer who is under no pressure from the breeder/owner to rush this visually striking 'TDN Rising Star's' development. “If we run in the Fountain of Youth, there's some question about whether or not he'd come back and run in the [Apr. 1 GI] Florida Derby,” Motion told TDN over the weekend. “It's possible we could do something like the [GII] Blue Grass [S. at Keeneland Apr. 8]. At some point, there's the opportunity to give him an extra week and the question is whether we do that sooner or wait to the lead up to the [GI] Kentucky Derby and give him the five weeks [after the Florida Derby.] But, yes, we are looking at three preps leading up to the Derby.”

5. CLASSIC EMPIRE (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief)

O-John C. Oxley. B-Steven & Brandi Nicholson (KY). T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $475,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-4-0-1, $1,520,220.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 5

Last Start: 3rd, GII Lambholm South Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5, 1st, GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 8; 1st, GIII Bashford Manor S., CD, July 2.

Next start: Possible for GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Classic Empire

KY Derby Points: 32

When a champion 2-year-old has difficulty walking around the shed row 48 hours after losing his 3-year-old debut at 1-2 odds, rarely is the immediate prognosis promising. But trainer Casse expressed relief when he revealed to TDN last week that Classic Empire, in the days after his lackluster third-place effort in the Holy Bull S., “had a huge pus pocket bust out of the bulb of his foot.” Since other diagnostic tests came back fine, Casse has ruled out his previous theory that the $475,000 KEESEP colt simply didn't ship well to Gulfstream, and after discussing the matter with owner Oxley, the Fountain of Youth S. on Mar. 4 is now a viable option. “We feel some relief because we knew something was up and we just couldn't pinpoint it,” Casse said. “Now racing at Gulfstream isn't out of the question, but we would do things differently. We have a division at Gulfstream, so probably we'd move him down there a little sooner and let him breeze there and we would do some schooling with him.” Classic Empire will need that next race from a progression standpoint, because it did not appear as if he got anything out of the Holy Bull from the three-eighths pole home. Casse also disclosed that shipping to run in a Santa Anita stakes is a secondary option; that's the track over which Classic Empire won the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

6. AMERICAN ANTHEM (c, Bodemeister–Indy's Windy, by A.P. Indy)

O-WinStar Farm, LLC, S F Bloodstock, LLC & China Horse Club. B-WinStar Farm (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $180,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $435,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $51,200.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 6

Last Start: 2nd, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 7

Next start: Possible for either GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 11, or GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 18

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 4

After American Anthem broke his maiden at six furlongs in December, beating eventual stakes winners Iliad (Ghostzapper) and So Conflated (Eskendereya), trainer Baffert said this brawny and aggressive $435,000 Bodemeister (Empire Maker) colt looked like a “giant version” of his sire and had depth that extended beyond sprinting. That belief was vindicated by American Anthem's gutsy second in the Jan. 7 Sham S. at Santa Anita, which ranks as the most impressive last-race defeat by any horse on this week's TDN Derby Top 12. American Anthem proved he can handle both the slop and being pinned down on the rail by a more experienced rival in that two-turn stakes debut, but we'll have to wait at least three more weeks before we see how this physically imposing May 15 foal progresses further. For the better part of a month now, Baffert has committed only so far as to say that American Anthem, like his other top sophomore, Mastery, will only have two starts leading to a Kentucky Derby berth, and the likelihood is that one will race in California while the other ships to Arkansas.

7. EL AREEB (c, Exchange Rate—Feathered Diamond, by A.P. Indy)

'TDN Rising Star' O-M M G Stables, LLC. B-Dixiana Farms, LLC (KY). T-Cathal A. Lynch. Sales History: $100,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $340,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-4-1-0, $334,200.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 7

Last Start: 1st, GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 4

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Jerome S., AQU, Jan. 2, 1st, James F. Lewis III S., LRL, Nov. 19

Next start: Uncommitted, but likely another New York prep

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 20

He's won four races in a row while adeptly revealing new dimensions to his running style. But the biggest knock against this 'TDN Rising Star' has nothing to do with El Areeb himself. Rather, it's the less-than-overwhelming company he's been keeping. After dismantling so-so competition in a pair of Grade III wins at Aqueduct, trainer Lynch declared that the colt (deservedly) might skip a race in the New York series in an effort to not run him too often prior to taking aim at the Triple Crown. “He made his sixth start [in the Withers S.], he's got a good enough foundation there,” the Maryland-based Lynch said. If El Areeb passes that race and instead points for the GII Wood Memorial on Apr. 8, it will function as a logical scheduling break. He'll need to prove he can handle heavier hitting horses eventually, but why not wait another few weeks if a slight breather is in the best long-haul interest of the horse?

8. GORMLEY (c, Malibu Moon—Race to Urga, by Bernstein)

O-Mr. & Mrs. Jerome Moss. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-3-0-0, $296,000.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 8

Last Start: 1st, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 7.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Oct. 6

Next start: GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 11

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gormley

KY Derby Points: 20

Gormley, a high-energy colt with proven two-turn graded stakes experience, remains on target for the Mar. 11 San Felipe S. He worked five furlongs in 1:02.40 under regular rider Victor Espinoza Feb. 10, besting an older mare workmate named Shazara (El Corredor) by three-fifths of a second in an even maintenance move. Now that trainer Shirreffs has two top Derby contenders for the same owners–GIII Robert B. Lewis S. winner Royal Mo (Uncle Mo) is the other–he faces the pleasant dilemma of having to keep the two colts apart in terms of race spacing. “This has been an amazing experience,” co-owner Jerry Moss said. “We haven't had two horses in this position in a long time and it's fun. We're going to keep those two horses separated as long as we can. I'll have to talk to John about it, but I think we'll go to Arkansas with one and stay here with the other.” Incidentally, that prep schedule mirrors trainer Bob Baffert's stated game plan for his stablemates, Mastery and American Anthem.

9. PRACTICAL JOKE (c, Into Mischief—Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor)

O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. & William H. Lawrence. B-Whispering Oaks (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $135,000 Ylg '15 KEEJAN; $240,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-0-1, $739,800.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 7

Last Start: 3rd, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Hopeful S., SAR, Sept. 5; 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 8.

Next start: GII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 4 or GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 14

Somewhat under the radar for a two-time Grade I winner (Hopeful and Champagne S.), Practical Joke continues training at Palm Meadows for a 3-year-old debut the first weekend in March. He was three-for-three entering the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but got jostled at the break and was fanned five wide leaving the clubhouse turn before regrouping well enough to finish third behind eventual divisional champ Classic Empire. He displayed a nifty turn of foot winning races up to a one-turn mile last year, but needs a solid two-turn effort in his sophomore debut to prove he can progressively stretch to the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.

10. LOOKIN AT LEE (c, Lookin At Lucky–Langara Lass, by Langfuhr)

O-L and N Racing. B-Ray Hanson (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $70,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 6-2-2-0, $299,795.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 10

Last Start: 4th, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Ellis Park Juvenile S., ELP, Aug. 6

Next start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 20

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 10

Lookin At Lee shipped from Fair Grounds to Oaklawn Feb. 8, traveling in tandem with GISW Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}) to join trainer Asmussen's Hot Springs division. Both horses are scheduled to run Feb. 20, with Gun Runner making his 4-year-old debut in the GIII Razorback H. and Lookin At Lee kicking off his 3-year-old campaign in the Southwest S. Lookin At Lee schooled in the paddock prior to last Saturday's fifth race and breezed a half-mile in :50 1/5 (25/34) Monday. His company lines are dotted with top 2-year-olds from last year's campaign, and like several other lurkers on the lower tier of the Top 12, he has to establish sharp current form to avoid being overtaken by the tide of late bloomers.

11. GUEST SUITE (g, Quality Road—Guest House, by Ghostzapper)

O-W. S. Farish & Lora Jean Kilroy. B-W. S. Farish & Kilroy Thoroughbred Partnership (KY). T-Neil Howard. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-2, $203,840.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 11

Last Start: 1st, GIII LeComte S., FG, Jan. 21

Next start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 10

A nice :47.80 half-mile breeze (2/25) Feb. 7 has the Lecomte S. winner on target for a Feb. 25 start in the GII Risen Star S. In the past 20 runnings, only two Lecomte victors–Fresian Fire (A.P. Indy) in 2009 and International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus) in 2015–have repeated in the Risen Star. This gelding caught the eye though when he advanced at will on the far turn of the Lecomte and had plenty left to repel fresh challenges through the long Fair Grounds stretch. He has the makings of a versatile sort whose race is not at the mercy of the pace, and being tactically balanced at this stage of the 3-year-old season isn't something that many of his peers can claim to have mastered yet.

12. ILIAD (r, Ghostzapper">Ghostzapper—Little Swoon, by You and I)

O-Kaleem Shah, Inc. B-Sungyeoun Lim (KY). T-Doug F. O'Neill. Sales history: $50,000 Wlg '14 KEENOV; $80,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $285,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $147,345.

Feb. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A

Last Start: 1st, GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 12

Next Start: Likely for GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 11

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 0

Iliad broke on top and ran hard the entire seven-furlong trip to win both the San Vicente S. and the final berth on this week's TDN Top 12. Winning trainer O'Neill last year had chosen this same Santa Anita prep sprint for eventual Derby winner Nyquist (Uncle Mo)'s seasonal unveiling, so that gives Iliad's spotting here a little extra Derby-potential cachet. But Nyquist was already proven around two turns when he won the 2016 San Vicente, while Iliad, at this early stage of his career, has yet to go farther than seven furlongs. At 2-for-3 lifetime, this ridgling son of Ghostzapper's only loss came in his debut, to No. 6 American Anthem. After this past Sunday's win, owner Kaleem Shah said “I think we stay here and try to run in the San Felipe, and then hopefully, the [GI] Santa Anita Derby” Apr. 8.

On the Bubble: The aforementioned Royal Mo was pretty much on even terms with Iliad in vying for that final Top 12 spot this week, and he had an edge in that he has twice won around two turns. But the deciding factor? Iliad's San Vicente featured tougher competition and a more grueling pace than Royal Mo faced in the Lewis S. Both were five-horse fields, which makes assessments tough.

'TDN Rising Star' Uncontested (Tiz Wonderful) slipped off the periphery of the Top 12, but perhaps not for long. The wire-to-wire winner of the Smarty Jones S. Jan. 16 will be one of the favorites in next Monday's GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn; his task will be to prove he can handle additional pace pressure after getting away on the lead to his liking in the slop last time out. His only lifetime loss was against McCraken.

Tapwrit (Tapit), a $1.2-million yearling, ran a decent enough second in the Davis S. behind top-seeded McCraken to earn a “bubble” mention. He was a reluctant loader, veered out at the break, had difficulty bulling through at the fence under vigorous encouragement on the far turn, then switched outward and kicked encouragingly when finally clear of traffic to finish 1 1/2-lengths behind the undefeated track-record setter.

Hence (Street Boss), a Steve Asmussen trainee who debuted at Saratoga last summer in the same deep maiden affair that produced next-out winner Mo Town, could be an outlier in the Southwest S. He also ran third to Guest Suite in an October maiden race at Keeneland going 1 1/16 miles, then finally graduated in start number four Jan. 16 at Oaklawn (despite trouble at the start and ducking in late while racing over a sloppy track). “He's caught some good company. He's got talent, and I think he'll run great,” Asmussen said … Silver Dust (Tapit), a $510,000 OBSMAR buy who won his maiden convincingly at Churchill in November, is also expected to enter the Southwest, trainer Randy Morse reported.

Huracan Americo (Drosselmeyer), who ran fourth in his debut in Peru before winning the 1 1/2-mile G1 Derby Nacional on Nov. 6 at Hipodromo De Monterrico in Lima, has been at Gulfstream Park since Jan. 20 and is aiming for the Florida Derby with a possible prep in the Fountain of Youth before that. Trainer Dante Zanelli Jr. attempted a similar prep pattern in 2008 with Tomcito (Street Cry [IRE]), who won back-to-back Group 1 races in Peru prior to finishing third in the Florida Derby at 12-1 … En Hanse (Hansen), was three ticks off the Turfway track record for 6 ½ furlongs when wiring Saturday night's $50,000 WEBN S., but he could not control his momentum, barreling off the turn and into the stretch some seven paths off the rail despite persistent right-hand encouragement by his jockey.

Trainer Baffert said on Steve Byk's “At the Races” radio show last week that recent maiden winner Reach the World (Tapit) “looks the part” of an elite-level horse and that the colt could potentially be capable of handling 1 ½ miles. A stakes assignment is “probably” next, but as per his patient custom, Baffert didn't commit to a particular spot … Third Day (Bernardini), now 2-for-2, will race next in either the Fountain of Youth or Florida Derby after winning the $60,000 Just One More overnight stakes at Gulfstream Feb. 8. “He'll come back in one of those stakes, we just don't know which one,” trainer Todd Pletcher said of the $575,000 OBSMAR buy. “There are a lot of options this time of year. I think he's a colt where we can look at those kinds of possibilities.”