Weekend Derbies: Who's Who?

You've probably heard the news bulletin that Saturday's

G1 Epsom Derby is still pretty much a race without a favorite–well, let's put it this way: yesterday afternoon on Betfair

G2 Dante winner Wings of Desire (Pivotal) was favorite at 5-1. Aidan O'Brien has seven of the 18 entered at the six-day stage, and to further complicate things, the G1 Prix du Jockey-Club–French Derby is due to be staged over 2100 meters (10 1/2 furlongs) Sunday at Chantilly. That race had 27 entered Monday at the first forfeit, and even though that number will be reduced today and tomorrow through other forfeit stages, as of yesterday afternoon a total of 36 different horses had been entered for either or both of the two races. Aidan O'Brien has 10 of those, seven of which were entered in both races, with another three just entered for France. Nine horses in all were entered for both races, Aidan's seven plus Sheikh Hamdan's

G1 English 2000 Guineas second, Massaat (Teofilo) and Kirsten Rausing's recent Goodwood black-type winner Algometer (Archipenko). Nine others were entered just for Epsom, and 18 others just for Chantilly.

Eight of Aidan's 10 entries are by Galileo, and the Niarchos family's Ulysses makes nine by him, including seven of the 18 horses entered for Epsom. Galileo's half-brother Sea The Stars has three at Epsom and one in France. Among broodmare sires, Kingmambo has three intended runners at Epsom, including Ulysses, who is out of G1 Epsom Oaks winner Light Shift, and Cloth of Stars, who is out of Light Shift's full sister, Strawberry Fledge; moreover, Ulysses is by Galileo and Cloth of Stars is by his half-brother, Sea The Stars. So those two are pretty closely related.

As of yesterday afternoon, Lady Bamford's Wings of Desire, a full-brother to Group 2 winner and G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. second (beaten a dirty nose by Postponed) Eagle Top, looked like he was regaining favoritism for Epsom from the presumed Coolmore number one, US Army Ranger (Galileo). Wings of Desire got up to defeat the presumed Coolmore number two, Deauville (Galileo) in the traditionally best Derby trial, the G2 Dante S. at York. Frankie Dettori, who rides for trainer John Gosden when not required for his retainer by Al Shaqab, had been expected to ride Foundation (Zoffany) in the Dante, but when he jumped ship to ride a colt who had just broken his maiden, it's best to pay attention. Up until yesterday afternoon US Army Ranger, who had narrowly defeated stablemate Port Douglas (Galileo) in the G3 Chester Vase, had been co-favorite with Wings of Desire, the assumption being Ryan Moore would choose him to ride at Epsom from among the Coolmore battalion. But yesterday US Army Ranger drifted, although just to 6-1 second favorite, while Deauville was shortening. Idaho (Galileo), who has shown promise while placing in the two key Irish preps this year when not ridden by Moore, was the third Coolmore candidate trading around 20-1 or under, as Port Douglas also drifted, suggesting he could possibly be headed to France. But trying to read those runes is pretty dicey; suffice to say Ryan Moore's selection is liable to go off second choice at Espom to Wings of Desire, who did win the Dante and probably is the rightful favorite; he did win it like there was improvement to come, just as US Army Ranger had suggested at Chester.

Godolphin has a strong pair due to run, G2 Prix Greffulhe winner Cloth of Stars (Sea The Stars) from Andre Fabre in France, and G3 Derrinstown Derby Trial winner Moonlight Magic (Cape Cross) from Jim Bolger in Ireland. Besides Wings of Desire, three from Coolmore (US Army Ranger, Deauville, Idaho), and two from Godolphin (Cloth of Stars, Moonlight Magic), four other colts were trading at under 25-1 on Betfair yesterday afternoon: Sir Michael Stoute's first string, the impressive Newbury maiden winner (he'd have to be, wouldn't he, to be at 7-1) Ulysses, who as mentioned is by Galileo out of Oaks winner Light Shift; Sheikh Hamdan's G1 English 2000 Guineas second Massaat (Teofilo); the Aga Khan's Harzand, another by Sea The Stars, who hasn't run since winning the G3 Ballysax S. at Leopardstown on heavy ground in April, and who probably needed today's half-inch of rain at Epsom to compete; and the impressive Haydock Park handicap winner Red Verdon (Lemon Drop Kid), one of no fewer than four £75,000 supplementary entries. That right there shows you how open the race is.

As of this writing we don't know which Aidan O'Brien horses will be heading to Chantilly, possibly Port Douglas or who knows, maybe even US Army Ranger himself, among no doubt others. There are, arguably, five other main contenders (two trained in England) for Chantilly. The favorite, no matter who Aidan ships in, is likely to be Qatari Sheikh Joaan Al-Thani's Al Shaqab Racing's Mekhtaal (Sea The Stars), impressive all-the-way six-length winner of the G2 Prix Hocquart over 10 furlongs at Deauville. With Cloth of Stars and Harzand (and longshot Across The Stars) at Epsom and Mekhtaal at Chantilly, it's not out of the question this could be a real breakthrough weekend for Sea The Stars.

Also likely to be well-supported in France are: Sheikh Hamdan's Raseed (Dubawi), winner of the G3 Prix Noialles (and the reason I expect them to keep Massaat at Epsom, even though he is in both races); Highclere Racing's Foundation (Zoffany), third to Wings of Desire and Deauville in the G2 Dante and promptly pointed straight at this by trainer John Gosden; Robin of Navan (American Post), owned by a small group which bought him for €47,000 as an Arqana 2-year-old last year, and who defeated Cloth of Stars in the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud at two, then ran a good second to him in the G2 Greffulhe when trainer Harry Dunlop said out loud he knew there was a little bit left to work on; and the Aga Khan's Zarak, arguably one of the best-bred horses in the Universe, being by Dubawi out of the undefeated G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Zarkava, who was so good even Goldikova couldn't beat her. Zarak was fifth in the G1 Poule D'Essai des Poulains–French 2000 Guineas and would almost certainly be the most popular winner among pedigree buffs.

To Summarize: Epsom

Wings of Desire (Pivotal, Gosden) – 1st G2 Dante, RPR 116

US Army Ranger (Galileo, AP O'Brien) – 1st G3 Cheshire Vase, RPR 109

Deauville (Galileo, AP O'Brien) – 2nd G2 Dante, RPR 115

Idaho (Galileo, AP O'Brien) – 2nd G3 Ballysax, 3rd G3 Derrinstown, RPR 111

Cloth of Stars (Sea The Stars, Fabre for Godolphin) – 1st G2 Prix Greffulhe, RPR 113

Moonlight Magic (Cape Cross, Bolger for Godolphin) – 1st G3 Derrinstown, RPR 109

Ulysses (Galileo, Stoute) – 1st Newbury Maiden race, RPR 99

Massaat (Teofilo, O. Burrows) – 2nd G1 English 2000 Guineas, RPR 119

Harzand (Sea The Stars, D. Weld) – 1st G3 Ballysax, RPR 114

Red Verdon (Lemon Drop Kid, E, Dunlop) – 1st Haydock Park handicap, RPR 107

Betfair Tuesday afternoon (approximate): Wings of Desire 5-1, US Army Ranger 6-1, Cloth of Stars 7-1, Ulysses 8-1, Deauville 12-1, Moonlight Magic 12-1, Massaat 15-1, Harzand 16-1, Idaho 20-1, Red Verdon 22-1, Others 30-1 and higher

To Summarize: Chantilly

Mekhtaal (Sea The Stars, Rouget) – 1st G2 Hocquart, RPR 114

Port Douglas (Galileo, AP O'Brien) – 2nd G3 Cheshire Vase, RPR 112

Raseed (Dubawi, F. Head) – 1st G3 Prix Noailles, RPR 110

Foundation (Zoffany, Gosden) – 3rd G2 Dante, RPR 112

Robin of Navan (American Post, H. Dunlop) – 2nd G2 Prix Greffulhe, RPR 112 @ 2yo

Zarak (Dubawi, Royer-Dupre) – 5th G1 Poule D'Essai Des Poulains – French 2000 Guineas, RPR 109

These 16 horses may not include the winners of either or both races, but at least they should help you identify the favorites. Oh, and let's not forget Friday's G1 Epsom Oaks. Minding (Galileo), Coolmore's emphatic G1 English 1000 Guineas winner is a standout, 10 points clear on RPR ratings even though beaten in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas. She will either win by many, or anything could happen!