By Bill Finley
Nobody should have been to surprised when Tarifa (Bernardini) won Saturday's GII Mother Goose S. at the Belmont at the Big A meet, turning the tables on the favored Gun Song (Gun Runner). The same goes for Saturday's GII Fayette S. at Keeneland, won by the Cox-trained Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}). Starting one month ago, on Sept. 27, he's been on a tear, winning 12 of the 17 (70 % percent) stakes races he has entered in.
Overall, Cox is 20-for-63 (32%) for the month of October. He ran away with the fall meet training title at Keeneland with14 wins from 37 starters. At Belmont at the Big A meet he's won 11 of 28 starts (39%)
“You get a feel for when things are right and the horses are doing well and the entries are good,” Cox said. “I always try to have a good Keeneland fall. Obviously, the horses are doing well, but a lot of them really figured. Idiomatic was 1-5 in the Spinster. (Mother Goose winner) Tarifa is a really good filly who always tries hard. But remember, she was 2-1. There are lots of times where you run horses in graded stakes level that are 2-1 or less. You run six or seven of them and only one wins. That happens all the time. Right now, everything is lining up just right.”
Cox, knowing the cyclical nature of the sport, says he tries not to get too high when he goes through a good streak.
“I just know you won't always get head bobs like we got in the Mother Goose,” he said. “When things don't go well I don't get down, but I also try not to get too high when we win. I try to stay as even as I can. And it's hard for me. I am a very competitive person. I try to take it all in and I always say play the next play. Something doesn't go well, I always say get in the huddle, call the next play and try to execute the next play.”
Idiomatic en route to winning the Spinster | Coady Media
In the midst of his run of good fortune on the track, his stable suffered a serious setback when it was announced that Idiomatic (Curlin), the winner of the 2023 GI Breeders' Cup Distaff was injured and had been retired. Set to go in this year's Distaff, she appeared to be Cox's best chance to win a Breeders' Cup race.
“I felt like she had never been as good,” Cox said. “It's easy to say it now, but I felt like she was going to be very hard to beat. She breezed great last week. I thought she's moving better than she's ever moved. But by Tuesday there were some question marks with how she was moving. It was easy for us to do what we did. We took the x-rays to make sure she was in good shape. We saw more on the x-rays than we needed to see. It was an easy decision. We are very fortunate to have horses like this and I have to thank Juddmonte for giving us the opportunity with her. It was an easy decision once we saw the x-rays. I just loaded her up a few minutes ago, gave her a couple of peppermints and sent her home. It's easy to be excited about her as a broodmare.”
Ironically, and especially after the Idiomatic injury, Cox doesn't appear to have a particularly strong hand for the Breeders' Cup. He has pre-entered five horse, but has said that one, Destino d'Oro (Bolt d'Oro) will not compete in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
That leaves him with Immersive (Nyquist) in the GI Juvenile Fillies; Highland Falls (Curlin) in GI Breeders' Cup Classic; Federal Judge (Army Mule) in the Sprint; and Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming). He has been pre-entered in the Classic and the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
When asked which of his horses is going to outrun its odds, he quickly came up with Highland Falls. Owned by Godolphin, he turned a major corner when winning the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup in his most recent start.
“I am really excited about Highland Falls,” Cox said. “I think he is set up for a very big effort. His figures stack up. If he's close early and if he gets the trip he'll be right there at the wire.”
Immersive also looks like a major threat. The leader of her division, she's undefeated in three starts and has won back-to-back Grade I's in the GI Spinaway S. and the GI Alcibiades S.
Cox will have to cool off eventually. No one can win with 70% of their stakes runners long term. He only needs to keep the mojo going for another week.
“I'm just hoping our racing luck doesn't run out before the Breeders' Cup,” he said. “I hate to use the word 'luck' but with the racing Gods there is such a thing.”
Next Move? The Classic
In a sport where too many people are afraid to take chances, you have to applaud trainer Doug Cowans and owner Michael Foster for entering Next (Not This Time) in the Classic. The thing is, no one knows quite what to make of him as there has never been a horses like him entered in the Breeders' Cup. For the last 14 months he has been running in nothing but dirt stakes, with the distances ranging from a-mile-and-three-eighths in the GII Brooklyn S. to a mile-and-three-quarters in the Birdstone S. He won one race (the 2023 GIII Greenwood Cup) by 25 lengths and another (the 2024 Birdstone) by 22 1/4 lengths.
He has been nearly unbeatable, but obviously against horses that are inferior to what he will face in the Classic. That's one concern and the other is that he won't get the kind of slow pace he gets in his marathon races, where he can lope along at his own pace. Where will he be and what will happen if they go the opening half in :46?
So, he may not win. In fact, the odds are against him, but there is absolutely no harm in running him in the Classic. There's not a single dirt “marathon” race left on the 2024 calendar, so it's not like he's missing out on something. And what if he does win or run a good second or third? That will open up so many new avenues for him to chase in 2025, races with far bigger purses than the races he's been running in. His career earnings are $1,336,361. Just by finishing second in the Classic, which is worth $3 million, he will have smashed that number in one race.
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