Value Sires For 2023 – Part II: First Foals Due

The group we consider today for now retains a convenient gloss, still in the happy position of offering “all talk, no action.” But they will actually have got as far as delivering their first flesh-and-bone foals into the straw by the time they start receiving their second book of mares. And many of the people who exploited their novelty value last year will automatically have moved on to the next intake of rookies, rather than expose themselves to the peril that the market won't like a debut crop. Foals conceived by these stallions in 2023 will go to yearling sales at a time when their first juveniles have begun to dip a toe into the racetrack water, and the “wait-and-see” bubble in a stallion's career nowadays comes earlier than ever.

We know that far too many foals are brought into the world to do no more than stand gleaming on a dais for two minutes. Farms have duly had to devise all manner of incentive schemes to keep their young guns in the game long enough to show what their maturing stock can actually do on a racetrack. Whether through loyalty incentives or the support of a home herd, then, the biggest debut books of 2022 will typically be followed by the biggest second books of 2023.

Independence Hall, Rock Your World, Charlatan and Yaupon respectively covered 202, 219, 222 and a staggering 242 mares this spring, Yaupon busier than any sire in the land bar Gun Runner himself. Everyone who used these stallions will understand that there will be no shortage of competition in the 2023 weanling and 2024 yearling catalogues. But they will be comforted that Mendelssohn and Justify, launched with 252 mares apiece in 2019, both obliged with the necessary commercial performance when their first yearlings reached the ring.

The fact is that ringside investors tend to do much as they are told, in the sense that yearling averages for new sires tend to mirror the sequence of their fees pretty slavishly. When you have such huge samples, admittedly, those averages will inevitably embrace a wide spectrum of triumph and disaster. But that's simply the nature of horse business. I reckon that if you're in for a cent, you might as well stay in for a dollar. If you bred to a new stallion last year because you actually believe in his inherent merit, and not just in the robotic reliability of new sires at the sales ring…  then stick with the program!

On which basis, there are limited grounds for altering the medals we awarded to freshmen last year. Certainly you know to back away with a polite smile if ever somebody starts bragging about covering sire averages, which are almost wholly incidental to the quality of those mares randomly offered for sale. Fees, too, almost invariably remain stable at this point. But there is one new factor in play, and that's the traction or otherwise implied by opening books. And that has caused some revision in our pecking order.

Bubbling Under

Honestly, the horse to stop, once those babies start sending purse money into the freshman's table, probably has to be CHARLATAN. A handsome and brilliant animal with a great shape to his pedigree, he will have matched all that quantity with plenty of quality in his first book–and that is just what you want to hear at $50,000. But we'll try to find him some competition at somewhat lesser cost.

While the size of Yaupon's first book will doubtless divide opinion, you have to respect what the sheer demand says about him, not least as a physical specimen. But if you have to settle for a cheaper son of Uncle Mo, how about one whose debut book of 142 also promises perfectly healthy racetrack opportunity? Because MODERNIST channels a lot of pedigree for $10,000 at Darby Dan. Anything out of a Bernardini mare gives you hope: a Bernardini half-sister to Breeders' Cup winners Sweet Catomine (Storm Cat) and Life Is Sweet (Strom Cat) might give you something nearer confidence. Modernist was obviously a tier below the best of his generation but showed enough to suggest these genes had due functionality, and he has a physique of real charisma.

At the same fee, KNOWN AGENDA was made pick of this intake last year and I do retain every faith in his eligibility. Hopefully others will do the same, because he does require a little imagination: he showed his true caliber only fairly briefly, when transformed by blinkers coming into the GI Florida Derby; and he also has an unfamiliar European family to contend with, though in its detail this should actually be viewed as a major asset by any who actually want to breed a runner.

Known Agenda did muster 166 mares at Spendthrift, albeit that is hardly exceptional at a farm with a portcullis that descends quite slowly! I remain confident that he will produce plenty of winners from what should, in a sane world, be considered lavish numbers. Pending the commercial cycles he must negotiate in the meantime, however, for now he narrowly yields his place on the podium after a couple of rivals, based at farms known for their relative restraint, rather surprisingly shadowed or even exceeded his opening book.

BRONZE:
BEAU LIAM (Liam's Map–Belle of Perintown by Dehere)
$6,000 Airdrie

By the standards of his farm, which prizes old-school virtues, this guy looked a candid commercial play: a bright but brief meteor across the speed-figures firmament. And, lo, they have been knocked over in the rush! So much so, that he was permitted as many as 162 mares, an extravagance that made him the busiest gentleman on their roster.

And, to be fair, at this kind of price he's a bet to virtually nothing for breeders who have seen Maclean's Music build so impressively on a foundation as narrow as a single, clock-melting start. Beau Liam, in comparison, was a grizzled veteran! He twice corroborated his blazing speed after becoming the fastest 6f maiden winner (by seven and a half lengths) recorded at no less a venue than Churchill Downs, by then posting Beyers of 106 and 107 in sprints at Saratoga.

He was then turned over at odds-on for his graded stakes debut and disappeared for good, but there's obviously going to be a sequel judged from the way breeders responded to the rest of the package–which is actually backed up by a highly plausible pedigree.

His dam is an eight-length GII Silverbulletday S. winner by Dehere, who has somewhat emulated his own sire's distaff influence (notably as damsire of City Of Light); and she has additionally produced three stakes and/or graded stakes performers and/or producers. And her own granddam was Grade I winner/Kentucky Oaks runner-up Jeanne Jones (Nijinsky), a half-sister to Avenue Of Flags (Seattle Slew).

With those genes and now those numbers behind him–not just the speed figures, but a book absolutely bursting at the seams–Beau Liam could well have an impact on the freshman table way above his opening fee. Those who get involved now, then, may very well find themselves ahead of the game.

SILVER:
TACITUS (Tapit–Close Hatches by First Defence)
$10,000 Taylor Made

Good things afoot at this farm, with Not This Time leading the way but a well-bred newcomer joining the roster in Idol plus two of the most promising of the previous intake in Knicks Go and Tacitus.

Knicks Go was obviously the more accomplished racehorse of that pair but while a very realistic fee made full allowance for his less glamorous pedigree, it was the royally-bred Tacitus who proved in greater demand when pitched at no less tempting a level. Tacitus covered no fewer than 188 mares, 37 more than Knicks Go, making it clear that breeders were willing to set aside the contrasting curves in their respective racetrack careers.

Tacitus actually won only one of his final dozen starts, when outclassing overmatched rivals in the GII Suburban S., but that did scant justice to the raw ability that had launched him into the GI Kentucky Derby via the GII Tampa Bay Derby (stakes record) and GII Wood Memorial. He had a wide trip in both Triple Crown starts, third (promoted) at Churchill and second at Belmont, but it's not as though he accumulated only excuses thereafter–as a final bank of nearly $3.8 million will attest.

But the key is that his palpable eligibility for the best company, regardless of occasional flaws in execution, was founded in one of the best pedigrees in the book. Curated through its last three generations by Juddmonte, who sent champion Close Hatches to Tapit for her first cover, it traces to the matriarch Best In Show (Traffic Judge) as fifth dam.

An adjacent branch has produced recent Irish Classic winner Siskin, who shares a sire with Close Hatches and is now at stud in Japan. That fortifies the depth we like to see in the third and fourth generations, here saturated with celebrated mares whose genetic potency is corroborated beyond this particular pedigree.

Breeders were invited to roll the dice at this fee and their response gives Tacitus every chance of demonstrating his competence as a conduit for these priceless genes. Grade I ability, Grade I pedigree, at barely a Grade III price.

GOLD:
SILVER STATE (Hard Spun–Supreme by Empire Maker)
$20,000 Claiborne

Woah, what's going on here? A rookie stallion entertaining 171 mares at Claiborne?

We trust that this startling number doesn't mean that the commercial tide is beginning to encroach even this farm, whose clients have long been blessed by that precarious blend: a fair opening fee, without swamping the marketplace. It's always good to have a spectrum of different models to help breeders make their decisions. At the same time, we all trade in a tough environment and everyone must be indulged a degree of pragmatism. After all, we have just elevated a similar outlier, Beau Liam, to this podium for another farm known for its restraint.

Regardless, the one thing we can safely take from this debut–by way of comparison, the previous year War Of Will had been as heavily subscribed as any Claiborne newcomer with a full book of 143–is that there must have been pretty ferocious demand for Silver State. Nor is his book just about quantity. Of 153 mares in foal, Claiborne report 24 to be stakes winners and 30 dams of stakes winners.

And it's not hard to see why this should be. Silver State matured into a very good racehorse, crowning a six-race streak with success in that luminous stallion signpost, the GI Met Mile, but is entitled to do better yet in his second career. That's because his pedigree combines Darby Dan royalty top and bottom, tied together by Roberto as sire of Hard Spun's third dam, a half-sister to Little Current; and also of Silver State's fourth dam, who was out of a half-sister to the dam of Dynaformer. Closer up, Silver State's graded stakes-placed dam is out of a sister to Monarchos.

So there's a ton of wholesome seeding behind this horse, quite apart from his outstanding appeal as a short cut to the attenuating influence of Danzig, who of course stood here himself. Hard Spun, a nugget of value in his own right, is the youngest custodian of his sire's legacy in North America, the line having meanwhile become a breed-changing power in Europe and indeed Australia.

All the Classic branding in Silver State's pedigree, moreover, boiled down into plenty of commercial speed–this is the author of five triple-digit Beyers, remember, who launched his big spree with a seven-length romp in a sprint–and he is a thing of beauty. As a $450,000 yearling, he was the fourth most expensive Hard Spun of his crop but has since matured into his big frame as a real prince. He's 16.3 but so buoyant and smooth that you would barely know it.

The silver medal was too obvious a magnet for a horse bearing this name last year, but in the circumstances it feels imperative to move him up a step. If his first book has a surprisingly modern size, the horse himself is a throwback–from his pedigree, to that invincible sequence wrought from resilience as well as class–and he feels a beautiful fit at his grandsire's home farm.

Here, in short, is a silver mine where breeders can strike gold.

The Value Podium: First Foals Due

Gold: SILVER STATE $20,000 Claiborne
Old-school merit has caused a stampede at his grandsire's farm

Silver: TACITUS $10,000 TaylorMade
Due reward after regal genes were offered at tempting fee

Bronze: BEAU LIAM $6,000 Airdrie
Speedball has been very quick to snowball