By T. D. Thornton
Undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos (Nyquist) uncorked the type of “Wow!” performance in the GIII Robert Lewis S. on Saturday that rightfully should be the big story out of a weekend that featured four prep stakes for the GI Kentucky Derby.
This 3-for-3 son of 2016 Derby winner Nyquist from trainer Bob Baffert's barn has now won at six, seven and eight furlongs by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning upward-trending Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97 (at age two), plus a sizzling 105 for his sophomore debut.
In addition to those impressive metrics, this Baoma Corporation (Susan and Charles Chu) colorbearer has displayed an on-track flair and a powerful fluidity that not only passes the eye test, but dwarfs the visual aesthetics of any efforts we've seen from his next-closest competitors on the Triple Crown trail.
All this, by the way, from a colt who won't reach his actual third birthdate until four days after this year's Derby.
Nysos's 7 1/2-length blowout in the Lewis overwhelmingly whets the appetite for what he'll be capable of delivering in subsequent starts. But like it or not, it's impossible to look too far into the future without coupling this colt's potential for brilliance with last week's news that no top sophomores out of Baffert's stable were transferred to other conditioners in time to meet a Jan. 29 deadline imposed by Churchill Downs, Inc. (CDI). Such a move would have allowed those horses to earn Derby qualifying points and compete in the 150th edition of the race.
After Medina Spirit (Protonico) tested positive for the medication betamethasone following the 2021 Derby, CDI banned Baffert from its tracks. The corporate suspension was separate from Medina Spirit's Derby disqualification and a fine and suspension imposed upon Baffert by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.
CDI's exclusion initially was supposed to last only for two years. But on July 3, 2023, the corporation announced it would be extending the ban through at least 2024, citing “continued concerns regarding the threat to the safety and integrity of racing [Baffert] poses to CDI-owned racetracks” by allegedly “continu[ing] to peddle a false narrative concerning the failed drug test of Medina Spirit.”
The timing of that announcement was curious, and for the most part unexpected. Reading between the lines, it almost seemed like CDI executives suddenly realized that Baffert's return would coincide with the big 150th anniversary celebration the corporation is planning for the 2024 Derby, and that they didn't want his presence to overshadow the festivities.
The press release announcing Baffert's extended ban was rolled out in the middle of last summer's long Independence Day weekend. Holiday weekends are an extremely slow time of the news cycle that news-issuing entities have long tried to leverage as opportunities to “bury” announcements they think might generate adverse headlines.
The racing world took notice though, and the news of Baffert's dis-invitation to Derby 150 simmered through last summer and deep into the Breeders' Cup season.
On Jan. 22, 2024, the script was flipped when Baffert made his own announcement via social media: The Hall-of-Fame trainer said he had instructed his attorneys to dismiss any remaining legal actions related to the 2021 Derby disqualification appeal, adding that he has “decided that it is best to positively focus on the present and future that our great sport offers.”
As TDN colleague Bill Finley wrote at the time, “It was not clear why [Medina Spirit's owner, Amr] Zedan and Baffert apparently changed their minds and decided to drop their case. It is possible that their dropping the case was a peace offering in what has been an ugly battle between Churchill Downs and Zedan and Baffert that at times took on a personal tone.”
CDI stood firm, countering with an immediate rebuttal that stated Baffert's dismissal of his appeal “does not change the current suspension or deadline to transfer horses for the upcoming 150th Kentucky Derby.”
One week later, as the Jan. 29 owners deadline to transfer horses to another trainer came and went without a single reported defection among Baffert's top clients, the narrative shifted substantially.
Now CDI's anti-Baffert strategy could backfire. The corporation is facing the prospect of Baffert appearing to have offered an olive branch, his owners lining up behind him in solidarity and his top 3-year-old rocketing to the top of the totem pole among Derby contenders. The very story line that CDI wanted to avoid for Derby 150 will now likely become the focal point of pre-Triple Crown coverage.
For the next three months, you can expect an ever-intensifying stream of stories about the prospect of another “Dysfunctional Derby” in which a corporate edict might keep the best colt(s) from competing in America's most important horse race.
In the last five editions of the Derby, we've seen one DQ of a winner for an in-race foul, another for a post-race drug violation, and one Derby moved from May to September because of the pandemic. At this rate, we'll soon run out of asterisks to affix to the history of our nation's most iconic race.
Despite not budging from Baffert, some of his clients are still holding out hope for a change in CDI's policy. Zedan, who owns 'TDN Rising Star' Muth (Good Magic), another top sophomore, is one of them.
“Would we love to run in the Derby? Absolutely, yes,” Zedan told DRF.com's David Grening last week. “Would we love to run, especially this being the 150th Derby? Absolutely, yes. Are we hoping to run in the Derby? Absolutely, yes. Do we think we will be there? It's in God's hands.”
Barring the unlikely prospect of CDI reversing its stated course, the courts–again–are another option.
Even though Baffert in '22 and '23 failed to persuade judges to grant him injunctions that would have allowed him to compete in the Derby, and even though he has dropped his current legal appeal, that doesn't preclude any of his clients from going to court on their own to try and overturn CDI's ban on behalf of their horses.
Remember, it only takes one judge to say yes to an injunction request, and the closer any potential plaintiff waits until the May 4 Derby itself, the more of a wild card that scenario becomes from “time is of the essence” type of pressure.
Our nation's courts typically listen long and hard when properly licensed individuals allege that private entities are unfairly keeping them from plying their chosen professions, so it's not out of the question that some aggrieved owner of a Baffert-trained Derby prospect might try that avenue.
Even more fascinating is what to expect in terms of race targeting from Baffert's stable. Will he point his top sophomores to the final late March/early April round of coast-to-coast Grade I preps and then have an arsenal of top-notch stock ready for the GI Preakness S. after being forced to sit out the Derby with all of them?
The Preakness has been the weak link in the Triple Crown over the past few seasons, and would certainly benefit from the infusion of horsepower.
But this scenario, too, could produce unwanted downstream effects. The Preakness already has trouble luring any other Derby entrants besides the winner. How many also-rans from the Derby are going to be keen on heading to Baltimore knowing a handful of fresh Baffert trainees have been specifically pointing for the middle jewel of the series?
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