By T. D. Thornton
Within the past three months, the purses for all three Triple Crown races have been raised. Paradoxically, this increase in prize money has coincided with a 2024 prep race season that is uncharacteristically light on emphatic, leap-off-the-page contenders for the GI Kentucky Derby, GI Preakness S., and GI Belmont S.
The first weekend in March has traditionally served as a launch pad for sophomores who figure to excel in the spring Classics and beyond. Of all the prep stakes currently carded at 1 1/16 miles, the two that have historically been the most prolific producers of Derby winners have been the GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park (with 14 starters going on to win the Run for the Roses) and the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Park (with 13).
This year, neither race figures to be a reliable measuring stick for calibrating the division's true horsepower.
The 1-5 favorite Dornoch (Good Magic) wired four overmatched foes in Saturday's Fountain of Youth S. But it will be difficult to discern where the full-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage stands in the pecking order off that effort considering four other rivals scratched out of the race, including the three ranked closest to Dornoch on the morning line.
Out in California, the San Felipe S. lured just five entrants. Three were from Bob Baffert's barn–meaning they are ineligible to compete in the Derby because of Churchill Downs's corporate banishment of the Hall-of-Fame trainer. Then the day before the race, Baffert scratched the undefeated Nysos (Nyquist). The colt's defection not only drained the San Felipe of its star, but it meant that only two starters out of that stakes would be able to earn Derby qualifying points (the San Felipe's 6:02 p.m. Eastern post time Sunday was too late to include analysis for this column).
Using the most recent version of TDN's Sophomore Top 12 as a guide, it is difficult to zero in on any must-use betting interests for the 150th Derby based on what we have seen so far in the '24 prep season.
You can skim the Nos. 1, 2 and 7 contenders straight off that list for Derby consideration. 'Rising Stars' Nysos, Muth (Good Magic), and Maymun (Frosted) are all Baffert trainees who won't be Louisville-bound because of the Churchill ban.
Seeing these top California-based colts perform in other stakes has also become elusive. Over the last two weekends, Baffert has scratched Nysos from the San Felipe S. because of a sudden desire to give that 1-5 morning-line favorite more time off between starts, and he opted not to enter Muth in the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. (where he would have been the heavy favorite), when he didn't like how the colt's final workout for that race turned out. Both colts are reportedly fine physically; they are now tentatively expected to contest the GI Santa Anita Derby and GI Arkansas Derby, respectively.
The Nos. 3, 5, 6 and 9 contenders on the Sophomore Top 12 all share the dubious distinction of failing to advance in terms of Beyer Speed Figures from age two to three–even though three of those four won their first sophomore starts.
No. 3-rated 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner)'s Beyer pattern declined from 91 to 90 when that colt won the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds.
No. 5-ranked juvenile champ Fierceness, a 'TDN Rising Star' by City of Light, saw his Beyer dip from 105 to 84 after winning the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November, then running a no-impact third at 1-5 odds in the GIII Holy Bull S. in February.
No. 6-slotted Dornoch (Good Magic)'s winning 88 Beyer in the Fountain of Youth S. represented a three-point haircut off a 91 earned in his GII Remsen S. score.
The No. 9-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Timberlake (Into Mischief) captured the Rebel S., inheriting 4-5 favoritism when Muth wasn't entered. But his 93 Beyer from that win equates to a three-race plateau at that figure without any numerical advancement over a five-month span.
Conquest Warrior, another 'TDN Rising Star,' was pegged at No. 8 in the most recent Sophomore Top 12. He uncorked a five-length smackdown score at 1-5 odds in a Gulfstream nine-furlong allowance on Friday against five rivals. But this son of City of Light remains untested against stakes company and will attempt to garner his first Derby qualifying points after replicating, not bettering, an 84 Beyer from his Jan. 13 maiden win.
The two Todd Pletcher-trained horses holding down the Nos. 10 and 12 spots on TDN's Top 12, Locked (Gun Runner) and Speak Easy (Constitution), were both unexpected defections from the Fountain of Youth S.
Pletcher scratched 'TDN Rising Star' Locked Saturday after not liking the way the colt had moved in a morning gallop. Locked, who won the GI Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland and ran third as the beaten favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, has now missed consecutive starts after a fever kept him out of the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Feb. 6. He remains unraced in 2024.
Speak Easy, a 100-Beyer winner in his Jan. 27 debut, was challenging Dornoch for favoritism in the Fountain of Youth S. when he unseated his jockey in pre-race warm-ups and reportedly ran into the rail and sustained a superficial cut, necessitating a scratch.
The plethora of recent, high-profile no-shows against the backdrop of Derby contenders being lightly raced to begin with underscores the missing-in-action vibe that is attaching itself to this year's sophomore crop.
With that in mind, maybe it's time to start looking for horses of interest in prep stakes that don't traditionally yield Derby contenders. Saturday's GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct and the ungraded John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway both produced winners who, at the very least, seem to have forward momentum going for them.
Deterministic (Liam's Map) is now 2-for-2 after splashing home first in the Gotham S. He stalked and pounced from mid-pack, splitting rivals in the stretch to register a 93-Beyer victory coming off a nearly seven-month layoff for trainer Christophe Clement. The colt will ship back to Payson Park, where he's been training this winter, while his connections mull a next start.
Encino (Nyquist) improved his record to 2-for-3 in Tapeta routes at Turfway, with his only loss being a neck defeat when second in his debut for trainer Brad Cox. He overcame post 11 in the Battaglia S. despite getting hooked four wide on both turns and running up on the heels of the favorite at the three-sixteenths pole. After shifting outward and regaining his stalled momentum, Encino scored by a measured length, earning an 89 Beyer. Next-race plans have yet to be formulated.
Despite a history that dates to 1953, only one Gotham S. starter has ever won the Derby–the mighty Secretariat, who won both those stakes in 1973.
The Battaglia S., which dates to 1982 but has only been a points-awarding Derby prep since 2021, has also yielded exactly one Derby winner from its roster of starters–the 80-1 shocker Rich Strike in 2022, who ran fourth in that year's Battaglia.
You can't get much farther apart on the spectrum of Derby winners than Secretariat and Rich Strike.
But then again, this is a Triple Crown prep campaign that is shaping up to be a ripe, open season for Derby dreamers, so don't dismiss the winners of the Gotham and Battaglia based solely on their unconventional prep-race paths.
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