The Week in Review: East Avenue Tops Bumper Crop of Juveniles

Expectations were high for the three Grade I preps for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile run Saturday as the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, the GI Champagne Stakes and the GI American Pharoah Stakes all included horses who seemed to have vast potential. And most came through. Chancer McPatrick (McKinzie) was the star performer in the Champagne, staying undefeated and adding a second Grade I to win to his resume. In the American Pharoah it all came down, as it so often does, to which Bob Baffert would win, and the answer was Citizen Bull (Into Mischief). He gave Baffert his 13th win in the race.

They were good. East Avenue (Medaglia d'Oro), the winner of the Breeders' Futurity, was exceptional.

As foolish as it may be to try to pick the 2025 GI Kentucky Derby winner at this point in the game, I will say this much: this is a special horse and if he stays healthy his future in unlimited.

The Breeders' Futurity was far from an easy spot. East Avenue was facing, among others, Ferocious (Flatter), the $1.3-million purchase as a 2-year-old who had the fastest Beyer figure of any juvenile coming into Saturday's races. He was made the even-money favorite.

But it was East Avenue who turned this into a one-horse race. He made the lead under Tyler Gaffalione and set a reasonably fast pace, setting fractions of :23.18 and :46.76. But no one was gaining on him. At the top of the stretch, Gaffalione let him run a bit and the result was a 5 1/4-length win over Ferocious.

“Tyler said, 'I let him loose today to show people what he can really do',” said Michael Banahan, Godolphin's director of bloodstock. “I don't know if he's done that yet. We have a lot to look forward to. We're super excited. We're pumped up.”

Afterward, comparisons were being made to Maxfield (Street Sense), the 2019 Breeders' Futurity winner who was also trained by Brendan Walsh.

“I see a lot of comparisons with Maxfield,” Walsh said. “The recent one, that's the one you always think is the best one. This horse has been doing things that you don't see horses do. I've been so lucky with the Godolphin team the last few years, with Maxfield, Pretty Mischievous and now this horse. I have to pinch myself.”

Maxfield, who never ran in a Breeders' Cup or a Triple Crown race, suffered a setback leading up to the 2019 Juvenile and then had just two starts at three. He blossomed as a 4-year-old, winning four stakes that year, including the GI Clark S.

I think the better comparison is between East Avenue and Godolphin's Essential Quality (Tapit), who was trained by Brad Cox. Essential Quality was a better horse than Maxfield.

Like East Avenue, Essential Quality was an impressive maiden winner before winning the 2020 Breeders' Futurity and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. At three, he would go on to win the GI Belmont S., the GII Jim Dandy and the GI Travers. He was named champion 2-year-old in 2020 and champion 3-year-old in 2021.

“Hopefully, we can keep this guy right and he can go on to do special things,” Walsh said of East Avenue Saturday.

He was just as high on the horse the next day, saying, “Obviously you dream big when you have a horse like him.”

It was a huge weekend at Keeneland for Godolphin as the stable also won the GI Alcibiades S. with Immersive (Nyquist), who is trained by Cox.

East Avenue will probably be the favorite in the Juvenile, with Chancer McPatrick going off as the second choice for the Chad Brown stable. His races all look alike. In his win in the GI Hopeful, he got off to a rough start as he hit the gate and jockey Flavien Prat lost his irons. He closed from 9 1/2 lengths off the pace. This time he broke sharply and was among the leaders through the first 30 yards or so. Then he seemed to take himself out of the race, dropping back to last while trailing the leaders by about eight lengths. He made a bold move on the turn to put himself into contention and then outgamed Tip Top Thomas (Volatile) to win by 2 3/4 lengths.

“He runs his races like he's a year older than he is,” winning trainer Chad Brown said. “He runs like an experienced, fit 3-year-old. He's got a long, strong run. He showed it in all three of his starts. The way he finished up and the way he relaxes, I don't see going two turns as a problem.”

Chancer McPatrick is obviously a very talented horse, but the fact that he has no early speed could turn into a problem. In the Champagne, he got the perfect set up, with the early leaders ripping off fractions :22.47 and :45.59. That's not always going to happen.

At Santa Anita, Baffert did it again, finishing one-two in the American Pharoah with Citizen Bull beating stablemate Getaway Car (Curlin). Citizen Bull was the least impressive horse among the winners of the juvenile stakes, but he turned in a professional effort and looks like Baffert's best 2-year-old, which is saying something. Baffert also has Gaming (Game Winner), the winner of the GI Del Mar Futurity.

There is an awful lot that can go wrong between now and Kentucky Derby day, but the early returns suggest this is a very strong group of 2-year-olds and in East Avenue, Chancer McPatrick and Citizen Bull, we have three horses who, as long as they stay healthy, should be among the leading contenders for next year's Triple Crown races.

The Breeders' Cup's TV schedule

We learned last week that the GI Breeders' Cup Classic will be run mid-card, with four Breeders' Cup races going off beforehand and four afterward. Post time for the Classic will be 2:41 PT/5:41 ET.

The Breeders' cup slotted the races where they did to fit into NBC's tight schedule for the day. Had they kept the Classic as the last Breeders' Cup race of the day then it would not have been shown on NBC. The problem is college football. NBC has entered into an agreement with the Big Ten to air a game from that conference on Saturday nights. Obviously, that takes precedent over the Breeders' Cup and makes it so that NBC has to cut away from the Breeders' Cup to get to the football game.

This will no doubt make the four races run after the Classic anti-climatic.

But it doesn't have to be this way, and this is one more reason why the Breeders' Cup can't get back to Belmont Park soon enough. With the three-hour time difference between California and New York, a Breeders' Cup at Belmont can end at 5:41 ET or so, before the network has to switch over to college football. There shouldn't be any problem running the Classic as the last Breeders' Cup race and having it on NBC.

The same can be said for running the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland and maybe some day the Breeders' Cup will go back to Churchill Downs, which is no longer in the rotation. Santa Anita and Del Mar are terrific locations to have the Breeders' Cup, but maybe priority should be given to tracks in the eastern time zone, which would mean you would always be able to run the Classic as the last Breeders' Cup race.