Bill Oppenheim
In last weekend's two English Guineas Classics, the winners were by Europe's number two and three sires: Dubawi (Ire) (Dubai Millennium {GB}) is the sire of the shock (note the pun) 40-1 winner of the G1 English 2000 Guineas, Night of Thunder (Ire), while Dansili (GB) is the sire of Miss France (Ire), winner of the G1 English 1000 Guineas. In Kentucky, both Classic winners were sired by sons of Pulpit, arguably A.P. Indy's most influential son. That is largely, of course, because Pulpit sired Tapit, the sire of Untapable, who won the GI Kentucky Oaks last Friday in near-stakes record time while recording a Beyer Speed Figure of 107 for the nine-furlong trip. Tapit has now extended his lead on the TDN Year-to-Date General Sire List (NA only) (click here) to more than $1.5 million, with 2014 progeny earnings now over $5 million. He's already the sire of seven graded stakes winners this year, including 3-year-old Grade I winners Untapable and Constitution, and 13 graded stakes horses–leading all North American sires in both those categories as well. You're long since bored by now about my banging on about the 2006 'sire crop,' but it now accounts for four of the top six sires in North America in 2014: #1 Tapit, #4 Candy Ride (Arg), #5 Speightstown, and #6 Medaglia D'Oro.
The other son of Pulpit, the sire of the GI Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome, is not so mainstream. This is Lucky Pulpit, who only won one stakes race, the five-furlong Smile S. on the turf at Arlington Park as a 4-year-old. Lucky Pulpit has been toiling in relative obscurity (up 'til now) for a $2,500 fee at Harris Farms in California. He wasn't a complete unknown even before California Chrome appeared. His first two crops each included a half-million-dollar plus earner; Luckarack ($534,645) in his first crop (2008) and Rousing Sermon ($735,092) in his second. But he's a lot more famous now, and Lucky Pulpit's days as an obscure $2,500 stallion are over.
California Chrome went into the Derby off two impressive wins in California, the GII San Felipe S.
(8 1/2 furlongs), won by 7 1/4 lengths with a 108 Beyer; and the GI Santa Anita Derby (nine furlongs), won by 5 1/4 lengths, with a 107 Beyer. He was entitled to be the Derby favorite and at post time went off at 5-2, with GI TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial winner Wicked Strong (Hard Spun) at 6-1, GI Arkansas Derby winner Danza (Street Boss) at 8-1, and, I was surprised to see in the Equibase chart, GI Santa Anita Derby third Candy Boy (Candy Ride {Arg}), bet down to 9-1, the only other one sent off under 14-1. California Chrome had a great trip, ultimately sitting third off a slow enough pace, took a decisive lead at the top of the stretch (yes, and it was on Racing UK – well done them) and won eased down with jockey Victor Espinoza starting to stand up in the irons before the winning post. The slow pace did result in trouble behind the front rank. Danza was bounced off the rail before the first turn by stablemate Vinceremos (Pioneerof the Nile), though he also had trouble getting a clear run in the stretch to finish an honorable third, while the longshot second-place finisher Commanding Curve (Master Command) had a clear run down the outside. He was flattered by his proximity to the winner, though it would have been more like four lengths, rather than
1 3/4 lengths, had California Chrome not been eased up.
The Wood Memorial one-two Wicked Strong and Samraat (Noble Causeway) both ran well to finish fourth and fifth, but in contrasting styles. Wicked Strong came from far back, encountered plenty of trouble (and caused some of it, too) and traffic, while Samraat was up with the leaders from the start and stuck on admirably. The other horse I thought had a nightmare trip was Intense Holiday (Harlan's Holiday), who was widest of all every step of the way until he faded a furlong out. He covered miles of extra ground, and would be a good candidate, in my book, for a top effort next time out.
But the big negative: it was the slowest Derby ever run, according to the Beyer figures a 97. A moderate pace (first half in :47.37 in this case) can contribute to a lower final figure (happens a lot in turf and all-weather races, where you see more bunch finishes), but even so the first half went in :48.63 in Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux {Brz})'s 2011 Derby, and he still won it in 103. For the last five runnings of the Derby (2009-2013), the winning Beyers were: 105 (Mine That Bird {Birdstone}); 104 (Super Saver {Maria's Mon}); 103 (Animal Kingdom); 101 (I'll Have Another {Flower Alley}); 104 (Orb {Malibu Moon}); average 103.4. Even that is well below the 25-year average (108), but now, if we're going to start seeing winning Derby Beyers below 100–well, it's not a good sign, is it?
There is a precedent for this decline in winning Beyers, too, the GI Belmont S. run at 1 1/2 miles. From a 25-year average of 107 (we ran a table with the specifics last May 22 – click here), in the six years 2002-2007 the average winning Beyer for the Belmont was 105. For the next six years, 2008-2013, the winner never ran higher than a 100, and the average for the last six years has been 97.4. Last year, speed figure guru Andy Beyer hypothesized that the reason for the decline, if I may paraphrase, is that American breeders don't breed 12-furlong horses any more. After his team's calculations confirmed California Chrome's figure as 97, Andy sent me this note:
“I think what we saw yesterday was an extension of the Belmont S. phenomenon. The last six Belmonts have been 100 or less because nobody is bred to go 1 1/2 miles anymore. When you look at the final half mile of the Derby–a half mile in :51.86–you might reasonably conclude that nobody is bred for 1 1/4 miles either.”
We know California Chrome is a better horse than a 97, because he just ran 108 and 107 in his previous two starts, and don't shake your head and say this stuff doesn't matter. It comes out the same no matter which speed rating system you use, or even if you just use raw times. But those last two starts were at 8 1/2 and nine furlongs. This was 10 furlongs. Last year, at 12 furlongs, Palace Malice (Curlin) won the Belmont running a 98. In his next two starts he ran a 107, in the GII Jim Dandy S. (nine furlongs), and a 106, in the
GI Travers (10 furlongs). Andy makes a good point when he speculates that (American) horses aren't bred to go 1 1/2 miles any more. Maybe the same is true of 10 furlongs, at least for 3-year-olds, at least in the first half of the year. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song) did run a 107 when he won the Travers last August, and he and (then 5-year-old) Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) ran Beyers of 112 in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita on Nov. 2. So American 3-year-olds can run respectable numbers at 10 furlongs later in the year, but can they run them the first Saturday in May?
Does it matter? Somebody still wins the races, collects the money, guarantees a stud career (well, except for the two geldings, Funny Cide and Mine That Bird, who seemingly got a sort of movie career, if not a stud career). From the point of view of the betting public and the (still) millions of people who tune in to watch the Derby and Belmont, it probably doesn't matter that these races are being won by horses who are clearly more effective at shorter distances – especially at nine furlongs. That's the true distance for 'two-turn' horses in North America now.
For that reason–because in America now a 'two-turn' horse is really bred to go nine furlongs–it does (or it should) matter to the breeder. What the breeder needs to know, really, is how fast was this horse at its best distance? At the very least, in the first half of their 3-year-old year that is almost certainly now nine furlongs. So here's a proposal for a radical change:
Kentucky Derby: nine furlongs
Preakness: 9 1/2 furlongs
Belmont: 10 furlongs
Wait, I hear a chorus of screams. Are you crazy, you can't do that! What about tradition? What about the Triple Crown?
What Triple Crown? It hasn't been won in 36 years, though I for one would be delighted if California Chrome wins it this year, and I think I'll Have Another would have won it in 2012 if he hadn't gone wrong three days before the Belmont. And 'tradition'? Well, the Kentucky Derby itself, you know, was originally run at 1 1/2 miles, from its inception in 1875 through 1895. Its 22nd running, in 1896, was its first at 1 1/4 miles. Then there's the storied GI Jockey Club Gold Cup. Its first two runnings, in 1919 and 1920 (when Man O'War beat one other horse), were at 1 1/2 miles. From 1921 through 1975, including the five times in a row Kelso won it in 1960-1964, it was run at two miles. From 1976-1989 it was 1 1/2 miles and since 1990 it's been run at 1 1/4 miles. That's fine, and as part of the Belmont fall meet and a key prep for the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, 10 furlongs is fine, but the point is, the distance of the race has changed with the times. But the Triple Crown races have not. The winning figures for the Belmont demonstrate that it's not the best distance for the winners, unless they're very moderate winners. The unmistakable trend is that the same is happening with the Kentucky Derby. Sure, it would be a tough sell. Sure, it would horrify so-called 'purists' and 'traditionalists'. Though I would argue that breeders are the true purists and traditionalists, and they would be better served by seeing the Classic races run at distances at which the winners can really show their stuff. For fillies for example, the Kentucky Oaks is run at nine furlongs, not 10. The GI Coaching Club American Oaks, once the equivalent of the “Fillies' Belmont,” run at 12 furlongs for most of its life when the likes of Ruffian won it, then dropped to ten furlongs and is now contested at nine furlongs. Are the distances of the Triple Crown races really so sacred? Should they be?
Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.
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