The Derby Picture

Outwork's win over 80-1 maiden Trojan Nation (sent across the country by the vastly underrated Paddy Gallagher) in last Saturday's GI Wood Memorial gave his first-crop sire Uncle Mo at least three contenders, including universal favorite Nyquist, for next month's GI Kentucky Derby, and in the bargain Uncle Mo vaulted past even Tapit to claim the number one ranking among all North American sires on the 2016 YTD TDN General Sire List (click here). It's not like we needed reminding that Uncle Mo is the real deal, but he also leads the posse with eight Black Type Winners (BTW) this year, as well as two Grade I winners and four Grade I horses. Tapit leads by number of Black-Type Horses (BTH) with 21, and 16 Graded/Group Stakes Horses (GSH). Bernardini, currently fifth on the YTD General Sire List, is the current leading sire by number of 2016 Graded/Group SW (GSW), with six.

After last weekend's three critical Grade I Derby preps – two of which were run on sloppy tracks – most of the primary results (whoops, wrong contest) are now in, so it's time for Bill O.'s (as distinct from Bill F.'s) Derby Top 12. The first port of call in assessing the contenders (with the GI Arkansas Derby and GIII Lexington S. coming this Saturday) is last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile: 1 Nyquist (Uncle Mo), 2 Swipe (Birdstone), 3 Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway), 4 Exaggerator (Curlin). Nyquist went to seven-for-seven by winning the GI Florida Derby two weekends ago. Swipe, who as many of you know was bred by none other than my better half, Lou, is playing catch-up, and at this writing may make his first start of the year in Saturday's Lexington S. Brody's Cause won the GI Blue Grass last weekend, and Exaggerator romped, in the slop, in the GI Santa Anita Derby. One assertion which looks pretty unassailable is that the form of last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile is rock-solid.

That tenth furlong at Churchill is notorious for beating favorites with nine-furlong form, and that looks like the only way Nyquist will get beaten – if he just doesn't get the trip. There are no real convincing arguments one way or the other, either in the form or in his pedigree, to predict whether he will get the trip. One thing I will say is that I seriously doubt being by Uncle Mo will stop him. The other factor which I would say is a big plus for Nyquist is that he has not had a great trip in at least his last six races: he's either had to make his own running (that hopefully won't happen at Churchill), or, as in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he was five wide on both turns and still won convincingly. Of course, he's hardly guaranteed to get a clean trip in a 20-horse field at Churchill Downs, but he has overcome less-than-ideal trips a number of times already. That has to be in his favor. When they make the morning line he has to be the clear favorite, and if he is anywhere above 2-1 to win he is a great bet. At 3-1 I would definitely be racing Paul Reddam to the windows.

So here's how I line them up at the moment:

#1. Nyquist (Uncle Mo): Cannot lose on form. Only the distance can beat him, or an unexposed horse he hasn't yet met, like Cupid.

#2. Exaggerator (Curlin): Very impressive win in GI Santa Anita Derby in a Beyer 103, best in any two-turn prep this year, and he did it charging from last, suggesting he will get the trip. The question mark is that the track was sloppy, and he had previously shown good off-track form, so can he repeat the dose if the track comes up fast in Louisville? If Nyquist falters and he does handle prevailing track conditions, he has stepped up to become the next most likely winner, as of now.

#3. Cupid (Tapit): Bob Baffert has won the GII Rebel S. six times in the last seven years, including this year, with Cupid, a $900,000 Keeneland September yearling owned by the Coolmore partners. Cupid was coming off a maiden win in a Beyer 88 (GI Wood Memorial second Trojan Nation third that day), and was a convincing winner of the Rebel, running a Beyer 95. American Pharoah became the first Baffert trainee to notch up the Rebel-GI Arkansas Derby double (Bodemeister, who went on to be second in the Derby to I'll Have Another, also won the Arkansas Derby for Baffert, but his previous start had been in the GII San Felipe), and Cupid will be favored this weekend to become Baffert's second straight winner of the Rebel-Arkansas Derby double.

Interesting factoid: top three contenders as of now all trained in California. Three of last four winners (American Pharoah 2015, California Chrome 2014, I'll Have Another 2012, Orb in 2013 the only exception) were trained in California.

#4. Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway): Winner of the GI Breeders' Futurity in the mud at Keeneland over Exaggerator, and they came back to run three-four behind Nyquist in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. After a complete throw-out when seventh to Destin in the GII Tampa Bay Derby, returned last weekend to grind out his second Grade I win at Keeneland in the Blue Grass. The knock is that he will need to improve a lot for that tenth furlong on his career-best Beyer 91 in the Blue Grass, but he is by Giant's Causeway, so 10 furlongs should hold no fear for him.

#5. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya): He has now run seven times for three wins and four seconds. He was left in the mud by Exaggerator last weekend at Santa Anita, but the consensus is that was a better race than it looked. Baffert was interviewed on TVG beforehand, and he was hedging big-time about the sloppy track. Gary Stevens did not really attempt to chase the winner when Exaggerator blew by him, so the thought is Mor Spirit might have got what he needed in his last prep while connections were careful not to 'bottom' him on that ground. There will be plenty of 'wise guys' liking him around the 10-1 mark.

#6. Gun Runner (Candy Ride): He hasn't done much wrong, being 4-for-5 lifetime, his only loss coming when fourth in the sloppy GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill last fall, behind Airoforce, Mor Spirit, and Mo Tom. He went 2-for-2 in Louisiana, winning the GII Risen Star (Beyer 90) and the GII Louisiana Derby (Beyer 91). The low Beyers thus far are a big concern, but there is one important point in his favor: he keeps winning.

#7. Mo Tom (Uncle Mo): Big closer who ran third in the aforementioned GII Kentucky Jockey Club, then kicked off his 3-year-old campaign with a good win in the GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds before enduring two nightmare trips behind Gun Runner in the GII Risen Star (third) and GII Louisiana Derby (fourth). Jockey Corey Lanerie, who swooped to win last weekend's GI Ashland S. on 30-1 shot Weep No More (Mineshaft), must be counting his lucky stars after retaining the mount for Kentucky. You have to think, wherever Gun Runner is, Mo Tom can't be far behind. If he gets a clean trip this time (not terribly likely in the Derby) he will be running at the end, but he'll surely have to improve a lot off a lifetime best Beyer of 88.

#8. Destin (Giant's Causeway): Full brother to Creative Cause who is taking an unconventional route to the Derby, having followed up a 2016 first-up fourth to Mo Tom in the GIII Lecomte with two wins at Tampa, in the GIII Sam F. Davis and GII Tampa Bay Derby (Beyer 100, Outwork second). After Weep No More came off a minor stakes win at Tampa to bag last weekend's GI Ashland and Outwork's win in the GI Wood, though, maybe Tampa form is better than we thought.

#9. Outwork (Uncle Mo): He was Uncle Mo's first winner, over 4 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland last April, then returned after 10 months off to score easily in a Tampa allowance race in February before his second (Beyer 98) to Destin. Gutted it out to win a very slow running of the GI Wood last weekend (1:52:4/5, Beyer 93) over the 80-1 maiden Trojan Nation. He'll likely be 15-1 or higher in Louisville, which could be a big price for a Wood winner; he is by Uncle Mo, after all, who can do no wrong.

#10. My Man Sam (Trappe Shot): Still a non-winner of two but ran a bang-up second (Beyer 88) in his stakes debut from the 14 post in last weekend's GI Blue Grass. He figures to improve from that, but whether he gets a better trip in the 20-horse Derby field is still problematic. Certainly an interesting horse for the gimmicks.

#11. Mohaymen (Tapit): Did not have a good trip when favored over Nyquist in the GI Florida Derby, nonetheless was disappointing in fourth. Ran Beyers of 95 when winning both the GII Holy Bull and GII Fountain of Youth, but after four Grade II wins in 115 days from November through February he's going to have to bounce back big-time to figure in the Derby.

#12. Lani (Tapit): It's unlikely the G2 UAE Derby is going to prove the springboard to a Derby win (we estimate the Beyer for the race around 92), but you have to give his Japanese connections credit for taking the shot. If Nyquist doesn't get the trip something could come out of left field, and this would sure qualify as coming out of left field.

GII Louisiana Derby second Tom's Ready (More Than Ready) and GIII Southwest S. winner (Beyer 93) Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft), a deep closer who was only fifth to Cupid in the GII Rebel but will try him again in the GI Arkansas Derby this weekend, would head my list of horses 'on the bubble'.

One inescapable observation we would have to concede is that this group goes into the Derby with some of the lowest Beyers ever: Exaggerator's 103 in the GI Santa Anita Derby is the highest two-turn Beyer figure, pending this weekend, and that is a little suspect because it came on a sloppy surface. Mind you, in the seven runnings since 2009 no winner has run higher than a Beyer 105 to win the Derby (the average winning Beyer for both the Derby and Preakness the last eight years is four points lower than the average winning Beyer 1987-2013; the average for the Belmont is seven points lower), and, it's fair to say, results do not always reflect raw ability or speed, but form as well; no matter how fast or slow they go, last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile and three Grade I wins over the last two weekends by the Juvenile 1-3-4 mean a lot. Scat Daddy ran a Beyer 99 when he won the GI Florida Derby, and that was his highest lifetime 'fig', yet it didn't stop him becoming a major sire. So it's not always about the numbers; the form is important, too.

Also I think it's time to call out Churchill Downs again over this points qualifying system they're so in love with. They like to say how much the public likes the points system, because they're easy to track and follow in print and on line, but I've never understood what was wrong with a system based on, for example, Graded stakes earnings; if 2-year-old races thereby counted for too much, fine, downgrade those to some extent. I know I'm going to sound like the disgruntled breeder of Swipe, but when you look at the form of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile and that he looks like a 10-furlong horse in waiting, the fact that he probably wouldn't get in the field even if he were to run in and win the GIII Lexington seems a bit silly, doesn't it? OK, he's probably not even the owners' best 3-year-old (they also own Exaggerator, a big compliment to trainer Keith Desormeaux), but he wasn't their team's number one when he ran second to Nyquist for the fourth consecutive time in the Juvenile either). Swipe was deservedly rated the number two 2-year-old in North America at 124 lbs. on the 2015 Experimental Free Handicap, but he's just an example of how the current points system runs the risk of leaving the winner in the barn. Honest, this isn't a disgruntled breeder moaning; it's a real issue which should be looked at.

Finally, since we seem to be all about Derby Top 12's, I have also asked my good buddy, veteran ace handicapper Steve Dillman, to list for us his top 12. Being a contrarian, like all good handicappers, Steve would only provide a Top Ten. Please see attached.

BILL OPPENHEIM'S DERBY TOP 12

Rank   Horse                Sire                           Trainer              Best/Last Beyers
1         Nyquist               Uncle Mo                    O'Neill               101/94
2         Exaggerator       Curlin                         Desormeaux      103/103
3         Cupid                 Tapit                           Baffert                95/95
4         Brody's Cause   Giant's Causeway      Romans             91/91
5         Mor Spirit           Eskendereya              Baffert                97/94
6         Gun Runner       Candy Ride                Asmussen          91/91
7         Mo Tom             Uncle Mo                    Amoss                88/82
8         Destin                Giant's Causeway      Pletcher             100/100
9         Outwork             Uncle Mo                   Pletcher              98/93
10       My Man Sam     Trappe Shot               Brown                 95/88
11       Mohaymen         Tapit                          McLaughlin         95/80
12       Lani                    Tapit                          Matsunaga         (est) 92

STEVE DILLMAN'S DERBY TOP 10
1 Nyquist
2 Brody's Cause
3 Mor Spirit
4 Mo Tom
5 Exaggerator
6 Destin
7 Gun Runner
8 Cupid
9 My Man Sam
10 Lani