“Terrific Uncertainty” Around Breeze Ups

The breeze-ups can't seem to catch a break.

Europe's 2-year-old sales suffered a nosedive in fortunes in 2018-a combination of polarization and oversubscription causing figures to plummet-but the market bounced back in 2019 in buoyant fashion. The breeze-up pinhookers, already surely some of the thickest-skinned players in the game, soldiered on, stocking up their barns at the yearling sales to take another shot in 2020, when the renaissance of the 2-year-old sales would surely continue.

And then, along came a pandemic.

“There is a lot of concern out there given what's happening in the world,” said John Cullinan of Horse Park Stud, who sells breeze-up horses in partnership with Roger Marley in addition to heading up the Breeze-up Consignors Association. Cullinan said he is keeping perspective, though. “It's a shock to people from all walks of life,” he said. “I don't think any industry or family will be untouched by this. We have to realize that in the wider world there is a catastrophe ongoing and while we have our problems, every other sector has their problems too.”

Co. Meath-based breeze-up consignor Norman Williamson concurred.

“It's affecting every walk of life,” he said. “I know this is our business, but at the same time I'd hate to be a nurse or a doctor at the moment. There are worse things going on but from our point of view, certainly dealing with breeze-up horses, it's very tricky. It's quite worrying but we've got to get on with it.”

Jim McCartan, who sells under the Gaybrook Lodge banner, said he is keeping his youngsters ticking over.

“We have most of the work done with the breeze-up horses and we're just basically keeping them ticking over at this stage and waiting to see when racing will come back on in both Ireland and England,” he said. “We think that when that happens, the sales will follow. But we think racing needs to kick off and then the sales after that. Everyone is working very hard behind the scenes to get everything back in action when it's sensible to.

“They're doing steady canters and we're doing different things with them to keep them sweet and moving along.”

With Goffs UK's announcement on Monday that its breeze-up sale would be pushed back to mid-June from its original Apr. 23 date, the earliest breeze-up sale is set to be Tattersalls' combined Craven and Ascot breeze-up sale on Apr. 30 and May 1. Williamson said he has eased off his training regimes.

“They've come up with a new date for Goffs UK's Doncaster sale, which is now put off until June,” he said. “That announcement came out on Monday so we've backed off those horses as of [Tuesday] morning. June now seems like a long time away, but we'll take a couple weeks of going easy then start back cantering again.”

It will be universally understood, however, that the revised calendar is merely a blueprint until COVID-19 is fully under control, and nothing should be set in stone.

“The uncertainty is the biggest thing [that people are concerned about],” said Cullinan. “When there is no racing, it seems pretty [unreasonable] to think of having a breeze-up sale. We were working towards a programme of sales starting with Ascot this week and the Craven next week and so on. All of that is obviously shelved and the horses will now be geared to a different programme. But even the revised sale dates, there is still terrific uncertainty around them.”

While the knock-on effects of coronavirus mean that the market is certain to take a hit regardless of the circumstances under which this year's sales are held, Cullinan said many investors will need some certainty around racing to have confidence to invest.

“There is a sentiment and feel-good factor in the trade of Thoroughbreds—of foals, yearlings, breeze-up horses and broodmares—it's all totally dependent on optimism,” he said. “Unfortunately, when there is no racing it is hard to replicate that. And it's totally understandable. There are people out there paying training fees at the moment for horses in training with no programme to run in. So it's unrealistic to expect them to be enthusiastic about buying additional horses at the moment.

“Having said that there will be certain people that will realize there will be plenty of value to be had this year at the breeze-ups. And that will be the case, however I still feel we need racing on to have any hope of a decent clearance rate and returns on our investments. I think everyone is being realistic given the times we're in. We're going to take a financial hit and it's a question of damage limitation from here on in.”

Among those hit hardest could be the precocious 2-year-olds and those who deal in them, Williamson pointed out.

“Nobody knows yet how or if the racing calendar is going to be altered or if they're going to postpone Royal Ascot, etc., but certainly with early 2-year-olds some horses are going to miss the boat,” he said. “The longer it goes on the longer these early, sharp 2-year-olds are going to have missed their date, but I'm afraid everyone is in the same situation.”

Cullinan concurred, “it will affect certain horses and that's something we can't avoid. It's not all about getting them out early but obviously there will be some that have been bought and prepared for an early 2-year-old programme and we're now easing into that time. But there is a broad spectrum of horses for sale at the breeze-ups; whilst there are plenty of early 2-year-old types, there are also the scopier, more backwards 2-year-old and 3-year-old types and onwards.”

McCartan suggested all-weather programmes hold opportunities to make up for lost time.

“Everything is going to have to shuffle back to start maybe three months behind where it was originally supposed to start,” he said. “There are loads of options; they can race on the all-weather in the winter and put on more racing here and more racing there. They can definitely, I think with a concerted effort and plenty of good planning, get racing back on and run most of the big races and most of the sales. It will definitely be a curtailed racing schedule but provided we can get back to normality in two or three months' time, I think they'll be able to get plenty of racing on.”

Williamson said the longer COVID-19 leaves us in suspension, the greater the trickle down effect of damage will be. For instance, the longer we are without racing, the fewer opportunities there will be for 2-year-olds before the yearling sales, which will lead to missed chances for pedigree updates.

“If we had a winning post in site, everyone would be happy, whether that winning post was in August-who cares,” Williamson said. “If you have to wait and breeze your horses in June, July, August, whatever it's going to be, at least you'd know where you're going. I think the biggest problem is not knowing. Horses will have missed the boat but the longer it goes on the bigger the impact it will have on the yearling sales at the end of the year. By that point some of these horses should have run and some of them should have won.”

Racing has far-reaching economic implications, chief among them its dictation of the value of bloodstock. Cullinan said that is something the powers that be need to consider closely when laying out the curtailed calendar for 2020.

“Racing is the showcase of the bloodstock industry,” he said. “It's not just a sport. The racing calendar is our showcase. It would be important to try to maintain the racing programme as near as possible as it was originally planned. We obviously recognize that one way or another there's going to be a truncated season, but they must try and maintain the number of opportunities for horses to run. It might mean a pretty crowded programme when we get back up and racing but I'm sure the racing authorities will put a bit of thought into that and try to spread it out as best as possible.

“The programme in Ireland, for example, starts off with five furlong 2-year-old races and there's one of those a week, and then it goes to six furlongs and so on. I'm sure they can rethink that and maybe replace some of the early season races later in the season.”

Cullinan wasn't throwing out the idea of conducting trade through online platforms, but he said he thinks it would be difficult to replicate the experience of seeing one's desired purchase in-person and the buzz of the sale ring.

“I have no personal experience of [the online platforms],” Cullinan admitted. “I know the online trade in inanimate objects is widespread, but we all know there's nothing like walking up and standing beside the horse you want to buy and patting him down the neck. It's a different feeling, and it's something that's hard to replicate. Most of the existing trade online seems to be paper transactions in stallion noms and stallion shares, which is a different line of business. But I'm not dismissing it, mainly because I have no experience of it. I hope it won't come to that, I hope whenever we do get around to selling it will be in the normal form, through a sales ring. It's hard to beat the drama and excitement of the sales ring. If that is an impossibility due to travel restrictions and so on, obviously whatever alternative method is available has to be considered.”

In addition to being a successful pinhooker, McCartan also operates video production company Adsell Productions, which as part of its portfolio produces progress reports on horses at all stages of life as well as stallion promotion videos. McCartan said he recognizes the challenges of staging a horse sale entirely via video or online, but said technology could be levied to help keep the market ticking over during these unprecedented times.

“Take for example the Craven sale in Newmarket,” McCartan said. “Every horse could have a file, and within that file you could have all the information necessary which would include video footage, photographs, maybe an x-ray and videoscope report, a vet report, maybe the weight and size of the horse, all that sort of stuff. All that information could be in a file available to any potential buyer sitting anywhere in the world so that he can access that information and then ring his agent and say, 'I'm interested in lot 1 at the Craven sale. I've gone through his file, my vets have looked at all the veterinary notes here in his file. Would you go down and check out that horse, have a look at him physically, report back to me, and then if I can't go to the sale would you assess the breeze for me and send me over a video of the breeze and the times of the breeze?' If that good information is available to everybody I think owners would have enough confidence to go ahead and buy a horse without actually being at a sale.”

It's no secret that vendors and buyers alike have been reluctant to work in such ways in the past, but perhaps a crisis will bring around a new way of thinking.

“It's a mindset and it might be the way forward to sell more horses,” McCartan said. “All the big art and furniture auctions are online and they're quite successful. I know horses are different but I think you can still make enough information available that people would be able to make a confident choice to buy a horse online.”

Cullinan said he has kept in contact with his fellow consignors throughout the ideal-from a distance, of course.

“We keep in touch with each other quite a bit,” he said. “We would normally enjoy a few pints but that's a luxury we can't have anymore. But we have kept in touch sometimes to just let off some steam, and other times to discuss our predicament.

“We're sitting on a lot of stock that's worth a lot of money and there are running costs attached as well, but we feel we have to go to the formal sales [format] to get them sold. The sooner that racing comes back both domestically and overseas the sooner the sales companies can start firming up plans for putting on the breeze-up sales.”