'Sustained Demand' as Tattersalls October Concludes in Record Fashion 

NEWMARKET, UK — The contrast could not have been more stark. From the high-flying bids of Book 1, the wave of a hand or catalogue was harder to spot on Friday as Books 3 and 4 of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale drew to a close.

If last week and the beginning of this week had an almost surreal air, this then was reality. Overall, however, there was little doubting since the close of Book 1 that this would be a vintage edition of the sale as a whole, and so it proved, with more than 204 million gns spent is eight sessions during the past fortnight. 

By Friday, in what felt like the blink of an eye, it had become a buyers' market, with a high proportion of those yearlings to have been sold changing hands for less than their cost of production. This is not a new story; it has been repeated through most of the lower-end sales in Europe this season. 

Boom or bust. It has to an extent been ever thus, but the polarisation has felt more pronounced this fortnight, with the one exception being the greater range of stallions who have been propelled into the spotlight. That's a good thing, for sure.

The offspring of the subfertile multiple Group 1 winner Al Kazeem (GB) are something of a rarity in the sale ring, but one of his sons played a leading role during the final session of Book 3. Lot 1617, offered by the National Stud on behalf of breeder Smardon Thoroughbreds, is now under the ownership of Al Kazeem's breeder, John Deer of Oakgrove Stud, where the stallion stands.

After bidding 65,000gns on Deer's behalf on the half-brother to the 112-rated multiple winner Live your Dream (Ire), Oakgrove's manager David Hilton said, “I thought this colt is a direct mix of the stallion and broodmare sire Sea The Stars. The mare looks good, she has had a very well-rated horse who could have black-type. It's a lovely back pedigree and we couldn't not have a go at buying him.”

The colt's dam Dream Book (GB) is an unraced Sea The Stars (Ire) daughter of the Ballymacoll Stud mare New Morning (Ire) (Sadler's Wells), herself a sister to the champion racemare Islington (Ire). 

The National Stud also presented the second-top lot of the day, a colt by Territories (Ire), who had been represented by a 750,000gns colt in Book 2. It took a bid of 62,000gns from Sean Grassick and Ollie Sangster to buy lot 1724, the first foal of the dual winner Pax Britannica (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) whose granddam is the noted racemare and producer Cerulean Sky (Ire). 

Michael Dods bought the top-priced filly of the day, a daughter of Washington DC from Bearstone Stud. Bought for 60,000gns, lot 1761 is the first foal of the Fountain Of Youth (Ire) mare Seaclusion, who is in turn a daughter of the Listed Hilary Needler Trophy winner On The Brink (GB) (Mind Games {GB}). The filly's sire and the sires of her first two dams have all stood at Bearstone, as did Indesatchel (Ire), the sire of the dam's Listed-winning half-sister Aetna (GB).

Book 3 was conducted in a slightly different format to last year, with around 80 fewer catalogued and the sale conducted over two days. Day-by-day comparisons are tricky, but this pared-down offering overall saw the average rise by 5% to 20,017gns and the median hold steady at 15,000gns. The sale is graded, so the day two average was roughly half that figure at 10,348gns, and the median was 8,000gns. The clearance rate dropped a little on the second day to 71%, but for Book 3 as a whole it was 81%, with 405 of the 503 horses offered finding a buyer. Turnover was 8,136,700gns. 

Book 4 followed on immediately in the dusk. Seven of the 61 yearlings offered were by Mickley Stud stallion Ubettabelieveit (GB), a son of Kodiac (GB) who won the G2 Flying Childers Stakes. Don't bet against his offspring showing up well in the early skirmishes in next season's two-year-old races. He will have been well backed by the Mickley Stud team, which breeds plenty of winners, and he has some well-made stock. 

Michael Dods bought a colt by Ubettabelieveit in Book 3 for 26,000gns and top of the pops in Book 4 was his colt from the Consign draft out of the seven-time winner Available (Ire) (Moss Vale {Ire}). Bred by Richard Kent, he was bought by breeze-up rider Gordon 'Flash' Power for 20,000gns. 

A clearance rate of 54% was pretty much par for the course for Book 4, which ended with 33 sold for turnover of 111,500gns. The average of 3,379gns (-31%) and median of 2,000gns (-43%) tell their own story, and it's hard not to interpret that as that  this exercise would be more cost-effective for vendors if the yearlings had been entered for an online sale. 

Book 3 Pinhooking Fortunes On Friday

Of the 260 horses catalogued during Friday's session, 46 were pinhooks, and after two withdrawals, 44 horses visited the ring. Nine lots did not meet their reserves and were buy-backs, leaving 35 yearlings marked as sold. Of the latter group, five lots made a profit ranging from 685gns to 6,500gns.

Thirty lots lost money. The 35 pinhooks marked as sold were acquired for 678,690gns as foals (plus costs) and made 352,000gns on Friday representing a -48.1% return.

We have multiplied the price of the foal by 1.1 and added a running cost of 12,000gns (for foals bought in guineas), £12,500 (for foals bought in pounds) or €15,000 (for foals bought in euros) for keep, feed, veterinary, shoeing, sales prep and sales entry fees. Depending on whether someone has their own farm, or where they choose to board a horse, will obviously mean that costs for each individual can vary significantly.

It is worth noting that sometimes a horse can appear to be bought and sold by different names but have actually not changed ownership at all.

Mahony Hails Appetite for Quality Yearlings

While the October Sale was always going to end with more of a whimper than a bang, taken in its entirety the fortnight's trade has been pretty jaw-dropping. The strength of the “outlandish” Book 1 undoubtedly had a knock-on effect for Books 2 and 3, and the decision to prune the numbers has helped this sale, if not the Somerville Sale in September, which was expanded to two days to accommodate the demand from breeders.

The Somerville and Books 3 and 4 may well be affected by the extra costs involved in shipping horses from Britain to the EU following Brexit, which must surely be a deterrent for some buyers from those member countries who find it easier to buy at Irish, French and German sales.

The strength of the October Sale as a whole is indicated by the turnover of 204,561,700gns. Though this easily beats the 200,403,100gns spent at the blockbuster 2022 edition, this year's tally is all the more notable considering that it is derived from 167 fewer yearlings sold compared to two years ago. Then, the average stood at 125,916gns, compared to this year's 144,464gns. The overall median was 58,000gns. 

Reflecting on the last two weeks, Tattersalls Chairman Edmond Mahony said, “I suspect that the 2024 Tattersalls October Yearling Sale will be remembered for a very long time. From the moment the buyers began to descend on Park Paddocks in advance of Book 1 it felt as if something out of the ordinary was beginning to unfold, but nevertheless, not even the most incurable optimist would have predicted that in a period of two weeks more than 200 million guineas would be spent on yearlings at Tattersalls.

“The sustained demand has been breathtaking and the fact that records continued to fall throughout Books 1, 2 and 3 of the October Yearling Sale has, in the current climate, been a very welcome boost for the wider European bloodstock industry. Amongst the numerous extraordinary figures perhaps the most remarkable statistic is that after an unprecedented Book 1 clearance rate of 88%, Book 2 produced three consecutive sessions which achieved clearance rates of 90% or higher and day 1 of Book 3 had a clearance rate of 88%. Only yearling sales of the very highest quality produce such impressive returns and we must pay tribute to the breeders and consignors from Britain, Ireland and further afield whose consistent support of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale brings the buyers to Park Paddocks and Newmarket in such huge numbers year after year, and more than ever in 2024.”

He added, “Not every sector of the market has been as robust as we would all like, but the appetite for quality yearlings has been truly global and it has been particularly rewarding to have welcomed so many new buyers from all over the world in the course of the past two weeks alongside those whose support has long been a feature of so many sales at Tattersalls. Between them all they have demonstrated not only the enduring international appeal of the sport of horse racing, but also that Tattersalls in October remains unrivalled as a source of the finest yearlings to be found in Europe.”

Thought for the Day

An oft-repeated concern from breeders as the week has worn on is to what level the booming trade of Books 1 and 2 will affect stallion fees for 2025. Some obvious big names will certainly be in for a price hike but holding the middle-to-lower tiers at a reasonable level may well end up being the theme when, for the second year in a row at least, there will be plenty of breeders opting not to cover mares. 

Of course, breeders are entitled to cover whatever they like if their end game is racing the offspring themselves, but placing a foal or yearling in a crowded market is hard enough in the first place, and a couple of blank dams or a poor production record on the page will rarely be tolerated by buyers who have plenty from which to pick and choose.