Sires With First Runners in 2018: Where's the Value?

This is Part II of a three-part series exploring Kentucky sires that offer the best value. To read Part I, click here.

It's hard to know quite what Cairo Prince (Pioneerof The Nile) (Airdrie, $25,000) must do to live up to his phenomenal sales debut: very few sires get two fee hikes before they have had a runner. He caught a rising tide in sharing a sire with American Pharoah and Classic Empire, and then blew everyone away with his physicals. Things have gone so dreamily so far that he is nearly on a hiding to nothing, but if enough of them can run then even his revised fee could easily hold up.

Having started with the highest fee of his intake, Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song) (Three Chimneys, $30,000) punched his weight impressively with his first weanlings and his yearlings followed through to put him top of the averages, at $169,190. He represents a pretty obvious package, and soaked up a lot more action than some of his sire's other sons.

Verrazano (More Than Ready) was also properly explored as a runner–a runaway Haskell winner running second in the Queen Anne S. at Royal Ascot, if you please–and his yearling returns, which ranked him third in the freshmen averages, make his fee slippage to $17,500 from $22,500 pretty congenial. He had big talent and has three big books to get him going.

But it is the next two in the averages who stand out, both at unchanged fees of $10,000:

STRONG MANDATE (Tiznow), Three Chimneys, $10,000

Any colt who wins a Hopeful by nearly 10 lengths is going to get custom at stud; and Strong Mandate was extending a Grade I chain into a fourth generation. His dam Clear Mandate (Deputy Minister), by one of the great broodmare sires, was a triple Grade I winner; and the next two dams also scored at the highest level.

And while Strong Mandate himself for various reasons proved unable to consolidate at three, this is copper-bottomed, old-fashioned stuff: his first four dams averaged 40 starts apiece. The second dam, moreover, is a half-sister to seven-time Grade I winner Creme Fraiche; and Clear Mandate herself has also produced a dual Grade I runner-up in Newfoundland (Storm Cat), as well as Full Mandate (A.P. Indy), sire of triple Grade I winner Ron The Greek.

That runaway Hopeful success, followed by a good third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, is hardly standard behavior for a son of Tiznow–who has, of course, a growing profile as a sire of sires. Strong Mandate's first yearlings averaged $85,717, boosted by the top filly at the Saratoga Select Sale at $825,000. A median of $51,000 also represented a satisfactory multiple of his fee, the more so at a brisk handover rate of 46 out of 54 offered.

Many breeders get queasy about sires ready to launch their first runners, but his own precocity is a beautiful fit with his progressive and classy family tree. He is already ahead of the game and you'd want to follow him through.

FED BIZ (Giant's Causeway), WinStar, $10,000

Eighteen years after Tiznow's great head edged out Giant's Causeway in the Breeders' Cup Classic, Strong Mandate and Fed Biz look eligible to continue their rivalry as sires of sires.

Like Strong Mandate, there's a wonderful bottom line to underpin Fed Biz: he's out of a stakes-winning half-sister to the dual Grade I-winning Irish juvenile Minardi (Boundary) and King's Bishop winner Tale Of the Cat (Storm Cat) as well as to the dam of Johannesburg (Hennessy). Moreover, their dam is a sister to Preach, mother of Pulpit. Going further back, his fifth dam is a sister to Round Table.

With a powerful, balanced physique to match, Fed Biz was a $950,000 yearling, the fourth most expensive at Keeneland that September and the most expensive yearling by his outstanding sire in six years.

Fed Biz matched that billing on the track, proving as hardy as he was fast, his three Grade II wins including two track records at Del Mar–notably when beating Goldencents over seven furlongs in 1:21. Shared Belief (Candy Ride {Arg}) denied him a Grade I only by a neck, and across four campaigns Fed Biz showed the versatility associated with his sire on three different surfaces.

Fifty-seven of his first 67 yearlings into the ring, bred at $12,500, found new homes at an average of $80,705 but he has nonetheless been pegged at $10,000. Pleasure doing Biz with you, I reckon.

Sires with First 3-year-olds in 2018

Overanalyze (Dixie Union) (WinStar, $15,000) has a plausible look of the soaring Union Rags (Dixie Union) and remains a fair price after edging out Violence (Medaglia d'Oro) (Hill 'n' Dale, now advertised at $35,000) on earnings in the freshmen table last year, albeit the latter had most winners and wins. Violence's first two crops of yearlings had been loved at market–as well they might be, by an unbeaten Grade I winner at two with nine-time Grade I winner Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom {Fr}) sitting there as third dam. By this stage he looks to be heading up, up and away.

Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday) (Ashford, $15,000) struggled a little for quantity but the quality was another story, eight of his 15 winners cutting it at black-type level; while few could have expected Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux {Brz}) (Darley, $30,000) already to muster three black-type winners at two, headed by Grade II scorer and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf second Untamed Domain. He could become quite an influence, with the type of class that could be parlayed in many directions.

Orb (Malibu Moon) (Claiborne, $25,000) had reached the rafters at the sales–he has already had three sons change hands for seven figures–so after a fairly quiet start on the track he will doubtless be kicking on with his first sophomores.

That transition is always hard to call, however, so let's delve into the undergrowth for a slightly wacky pick among this intake:

FORT LARNED (E Dubai), Adena Springs, $7,500

No bones about it–this one is already clinging on by his fingertips, but after just a handful of runners that's hardly his fault. And if breeders show a bit of nerve he could yet come back from the brink.

Certainly Fort Larned (E Dubai) had a ton of talent to be standing for this kind of money, as a triple Grade I winner who wired the Breeders' Cup Classic field for a 117 Beyer. He has obvious disadvantages to overcome, notably an unfashionable if under-rated sire and a plain old head. But the set and shape of his shoulder and hindquarters gave him knockout reach and efficiency, enabling him to carry that Mr Prospector speed in a way that should tempt anyone seeking an outcross for Northern Dancer or Seattle Slew blood.

Unfortunately he was dispatched to Florida for a couple of years, even as he was trying to get started, and 15 runners from an initial crop of 43 named foals had their work cut out to restore him to attention back in Kentucky. Fairly incredible, then, that one of his four winners should proceed to a Grade I podium in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Blonde Bomber stormed through from last to third at Del Mar, having previously won her stakes debut at Gulfstream–where Fort Larned once set a track record–by 7 1/4 lengths.

Bear in mind that Fort Larned himself did not reach full bloom until he was four, albeit that can be partly attributed to an unsuccessful experiment with turf racing. And remember, too, that he is out of a daughter of Bayakoa, imported from Argentina to win a dozen Grade I races (including back-to-back Breeders' Cup Distaffs) as champion older mare in 1989 and 1990.

Bayakoa had a less productive second career, her other three foals managing a single start between them, but the only other one to breed did produce a four-time Grade I winner in Affluent (Affirmed). Her female line traces to a mare imported from England to Argentina as far back as 1878, suggesting that Fort Larned's athletic flair has healthily spread roots. Whether enough people will have the adventure to tap into them remains to be seen, but Fort Larned deserves a second chance as he was scarcely given a first one.

Sires with First 4-year-olds in 2018

This looks a vintage bunch, a good half-dozen shaping as capable of breaking into the elite, famously including sires of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners at the first attempt. Moreover their various farms have on the whole reacted temperately to these breakthroughs, bearing in mind that some had cooling books for the next couple crops coming through.

For instance, Maclean's Music (Distorted Humor) (Hill 'n' Dale, $25,000) and Dialed In (Mineshaft) (Darby Dan, $25,000) will this year rely on 2-year-olds from books of 90 and 91 mares respectively. Maclean's Music made such an impression with his first juveniles that he covered 181 mares last year, even without Cloud Computing on the radar; Dialed In, also a very striking specimen if in a different way, entertained no fewer than 231 ladies to celebrate his freshmen's championship (behind only Into Mischief on 235).

Even in such a stellar intake, these two stand out with seven black-type winners apiece from 50 and 55 winners overall in 2017. Somehow I don't feel you need me to tell me they could still be value, both having duly made the top five of their intake on 2017 yearling averages–off covers of $6,500 (Maclean's Music) and $7,500 (Dialed In).

But top of that table was Union Rags (Dixie Union) (Lane's End, $60,000), at $150,689. He has now conjured four Grade I winners from two crops, earning himself another hike; he is far and away the youngest sire standing for that kind of money by virtue of actually putting runners on the track. His good ones seem to be very good; whether he can maintain that curious virtue remains to be seen, but for now he appears to know how to write himself a headline.

Likewise Bodemeister (Empire Maker) (WinStar, $40,000), who covered 192 mares last year even before producing his Kentucky Derby winner for a thriving sire-line. Two others who have amply merited an upgrade are Shackleford (Forestry) (Darby Dan, $20,000) and Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway) (Airdrie, $20,000), but let's have a squint beyond all these super prospects and see if they might yet be joined by one who's bubbling under:

DOMINUS (Smart Strike), Spendthrift, $10,000

Overshadowed as he is by such luminous achievers, the sales returns of Dominus (Smart Strike) remain bogged down by unglamorous opening books, down to 30 foals in his second crop. But he was turned around in a big way that same year when nine winners in his debut crop included four black-type performers headed by Straight Fire, his standout yearling at $250,000 and an 11-length maiden winner before gaining Grade I podiums in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner. That sent 145 mates to his door in 2017, when multiple stakes winner Chanel's Legacy kept up the good work.

Operating at a two-in-three ratio of winners to starters, Dominus is a good-looking son of a sire of sires who blazed a trail in the GII Dwyer on dirt and the GII Bernard Baruch on turf. He is from a Ned Evans family, out of a Lord At War (Arg) half-sister to dual Grade I turf winner Honey Ryder (Lasting Approval); the dam herself had multiple graded stakes placings on turf.

Just $3,500 in 2016, he would not be up to $10,000 if a farm like Spendthrift–so sharp in setting the commercial pace–did not have a pretty shrewd idea that he is safely on his way.

And the Judges Say…

LINCOLN COLLINS

It's a funny thing about this business that there are so many stallions out there that don't seem to get the recognition they deserve–and one I think is particularly under-rated is Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet) (Gainesway, $8,500). I know he's an older horse now, but he gets plenty of good horses and for some reason never seems to get the credit for it. He'd be very useful for a breeder trying to decide whether to keep a mare, early in her career–because if she can't get a decent one by Afleet Alex, she's probably not much good.

Of those yet to be proven, I'd be quite an advocate for Fed Biz (Giant's Causeway) (WinStar, $10,000). He had plenty of speed and, if he didn't get quite to the top, he does have the most wonderful stallion's pedigree. And both these are within the reach of almost any breeder's pocket.

HEADLEY BELL

I think these “punch above belt”.

Proven:

1. Temple City (Dynaformer) (Spendthrift, $15,000) constantly moves up his mares and terrific pedigree blend for the stud fee.

2. Point of Entry (Dynaformer) (Adena Springs, $20,000). While he only has one crop to race, very promising runners who should get better with time and distance; terrific pedigree blend and Shug said he's one of the best he ever trained.

Unproven:

1. Lea (First Samurai) (Claiborne, $7,500). Good racehorse with pedigree blend that suits many, and breeding athletic foals in first crop.

2. Fed Biz (Giant's Causeway) (WinStar, $10,000) is a well-bred prospect with a stallion's pedigree. Baffert always regarded him as proper horse and he has really moved up his mares with athletic foals.

Part III of Chris McGrath's exploration of value sires will run in next Wednesday's TDN.