Racing Risk Models Being Used to Improve Outcomes for Racehorses in Britain

The British racing industry, in partnership with the Royal Veterinary College (RVC), is using data spanning 14 years to identify and help reduce risk in the sport, via the Racing Risk Models (RRM), the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) and Horse Welfare Board (HWB) announced on Wednesday.

Work on the RRM began in 2018 and its development and implementation has been one of the core recommendations of the HWB's 2020 strategy, A Life Well Lived. Academic researchers from the RVC have since been analysing data collected for each race start in Britain, including horse details, racing history, trainer, jockey and racecourse information, combined with details of any adverse outcomes sustained during the race.

Potential risk factors identified by the model span five categories–horse, race, course, trainer and jockey. Experts at the RVC apply multivariable statistical modelling to the data to identify areas of increased risk, and the strength of association. This then allows for predictive models to potentially identify how injury and fatality rates might be affected by any individual factors.

In 2023, the model was expanded to include Flat racing data, alongside the 400,000 jump records already analysed as part of the project.

As new data emerges and future race starts are analysed, the Royal Veterinary College and Equine Safety Group (ESG) will continue to explore risk factors, their associations and potential recommendations for the future. Led by the BHA, the ESG is made up of experts from across British racing including owners, trainers, jockeys, racecourses, veterinary and safety advisors and internal data analysts.

James Given, director of equine regulation, safety and welfare at the BHA and member of the Horse Welfare Board, said, “The Royal Veterinary College Epidemiological Team have academic expertise and independence that delivers scientifically rigorous evidence that enables recommendations and actions to be based on indisputable data.

“Reduction of risk and injury is one of the core pillars of our welfare strategy and informed, evidence-based decision making is integral to this.”