NHC Or Bust!

By Steve DeCaspers 

For the past several weeks, I have reminded myself frequently that the NTRA/DRF National Handicapping Championship (NHC)–the first I've ever qualified for–is “just another handicapping tournament.” It's like the scene from Hoosiers when coach Norman Dale measures the height of hoop and distance of the foul line to calm his awestruck players as they arrive at the big arena for the state final. “I think you'll find these are the exact same measurements as our gym back in Hickory,” says Dale. 

With a dozen Vegas tournament starts under my belt, including multiple Pick The Ponies Invitational tournaments at the Las Vegas Hilton and the $1000 Buy-In Horseplayer World Series last year, I should be immune to the size, scope and hype that goes with the NHC. And I was…until Monday. 

That's when tournament host Treasure Island announced that it would, for the first time ever, offer future wagering on the outcome of the NHC, and I saw my name on the board at 100-1. 

I don't care what Gene Hackman's tape measure says, this is NOT just another handicapping tournament! 

While the NHC Future Wager is a cute gimmick (I'll be booking instead of betting the $10 my mom sent), it's among a number of things you simply won't find in other tournaments throughout the year. Others include: 

Prize Money. While exact figures won't be announced until right before the start, last year's NHC Final paid out $1.6 million, with $750,000 to winner Jose Arias. It's reasonable to assume that this year may hit $2 million. There's no other mythical bankroll tournament that comes close. 

Competition. Players cannot “buy in” to the NHC. Each of my opponents earned their entry via a qualifying tournament over the last 12 months, meaning they had enough skill to win something to get here. As I look through the names of the well-known contestants–including several former NHC champions, prominent public handicappers and ESPN personality Kenny Mayne–I almost forget that I, too, earned my way here, placing fifth out of 324 entries in a tournament onwww.nhcqualify.com in October. 

Media. Coverage of the NHC has exploded over the last several years. Twitter will be abuzz throughout the 16th running of the tournament (#NHC16, #NHC2015) and Daily Racing Form has greatly expanded live video updates and interviews. Steve Byk is even originating 'At the Races' from Vegas the second half of this week. And now the TDN has joined the fray, giving me the opportunity to share my quest for handicapping immortality. 

The Tournament Format 
Officially, the NHC is a three-day handicapping tournament, but it plays more like three separate tournaments due to some format tweaks unique to the NHC, designed to reward consistent play and create drama. 

The first two days are much like a typical tournament. Players have 15 $2 Win/Place bets to make each day from a list of seven designated tracks: Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Golden Gate, Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Santa Anita and Tampa Bay. Eight of the races will be designated by an NHC committee as “mandatories” and must be bet by all players. The remaining seven bets are known as “optionals” and are made at the player's discretion. 

The end of day two is where the first round of drama comes in. Much like “making the cut” in a PGA Tour event, only the top 50 players will move on to Day Three. Players keep their cumulative scores throughout the contest, so the last day effectively becomes a 50-player tournament with 10 optional bets that must be made before 12:30 p.m. Pacific. That's when the third cut occurs, down to the Final 10 players. 

The remaining players again carry their bankroll forward to a “Final Table,” and face off by betting seven mandatory races designated by the NHC. With small gaps separating the players scores and everyone betting the same races, what was a tournament for handicapping horses soon turns into an exercise in speculative math, game theory and, frankly, handicapping human behavior. 

In 2014, NHC runner up Tony Brice actually picked the winner of the final race, but a late tick down in the odds left him $1.60 short of first place, a difference in prize money of $550,000. After the tournament, he told DRF's Peter Fornatale, “I had to go with the horse I loved in the last race, even though I knew it probably wouldn't be enough to win it.” 

Did Brice make the right decision? Should he have let the price dictate his selection (and ended up with a worse result)? There probably is no right answer. Since the final table only debuted last year, the final-table mindset remains a bit of a mystery, perhaps only truly understood by those fortunate enough to make it. 

My Strategy 
Instead of approaching the NHC with a set of rigid handicapping principles to abide by or a list of “if/then” type rules, I plan to strategize around maintaining a stable mindset throughout the tournament. 

Until you experience it, you have no idea how fast things can get out of hand when you cram 500 horseplayers into a ballroom and have them yell and scream at a seemingly infinite number of televisions showing seven different tracks. For me, the most dangerous moment is when the first longshot wins and it feels like half the room had it and I've lost all chance. My equilibrium is shot! Time to adjust! Time to stab at longshots! 

This time, I will remain steady. Here is my foolproof strategy to keep my emotions stable, my mind focused and my horseplaying skills primed this weekend: 

Enjoy Thursday. I'll do most of my handicapping of the Friday card on Wednesday, the day that I travel to Las Vegas. On Thursday, I plan to capitalize on my newfound appreciation of bicycling and ride for a few hours in the Red Rock Canyon Conservation Area. While many of my opponents will be heads down in the racebook, I'll be clearing my head, getting some much needed exercise and taking in some beautiful scenery. In the afternoon, you'll find me at one of Vegas' fine spas. Let's hope this isn't the high point of my trip. 

Ignore My Opponents and the Scoreboard on Friday. In order to make Friday completely about making good decisions and (hopefully) selecting a few winners, I will be completely self-centered and oblivious to what is going on around me. My wife tells me that I bring this talent to my daily life, so I should have no problems applying it here. Much like the first round of a golf tournament, there is no reason at this early stage to let circumstances influence my play. There will be plenty of time for that on Saturday. 

Play Horses I Truly Like. I know this sounds crazy, but I often find myself making several plays in a tournament on horses I don't really like. Either I let the odds dictate the choice or I've passed on optional races earlier and find myself at the end of a nine-hour day in a windowless ballroom left with the choice of trying to beat a Hollendorfer-Baze favorite in a seven-horse nickel claimer from Golden Gate or taking the longest price in a five-horse classified allowance going down the hill at Santa Anita. From experience, I know that if it comes to this, I will not be part of the final table. 

Eat Well. Although I will be playing plenty of long shots in the tournament, I plan to focus on the chalk when dining out in Vegas. I'm eager to try chef Mitsuo Endo's izakaya, oden, and robata-style dishes at Raku, a small off-strip spot that gets the highest praise from even the crabbiest of critics. Also, it will be impossible not to make a return trip to Jose Andres' China Poblano at the Cosmopolitan. I would never have thought to put a Chinese-Mexican menu together, but I'm glad he did! Lastly, for this horse racing fan, a trip to Bobby Flay's Bobby's Burger Palace is a must (especially since there isn't one in Chicago yet!). The food will be delicious, but my stubborn failure to include the Flay-owned Dame Dorothy on top of a 37-1 shot I loved in last week's Sunshine Millions Distaff may haunt me throughout the meal. 

The NHC is to tournament horseplayers what I imagine the Breeders' Cup is like to horsemen, owners and jockeys. In some ways, you are just happy to be competing at the highest level and simply feel fortunate to be there. On the other hand, you also know that with hard work, intense focus and a little luck, you could be a champion. 

I know I'm just supposed to enjoy the moment, but my competitive instincts are beginning to take over. Who cares that I'm 100-1–I just might have a shot! 

I'll let you know how things went next week. 

About the author: Steve DeCaspers leads a marketing strategy group at a wireless phone company and lives in Chicago with his wife Bethany and their dog Popeye. He was an assistant editor at the TDN from 1998 to 2001 and is responsible for creating the first “TDN Rising Star” designation.