Kentucky Value Sires For 2025–Part I: New Stallions

With 'TDN Rising Stars' Sierre Leone (Gun Runner) and Fierceness (City of Light) extending their rivalry into 2025, and the GI Kentucky Derby winner also persevering to a third campaign, there's no denying that the new intake of Bluegrass sires has a fairly bunched look. A cluster of second-tier names can duly compete for mares that might otherwise have favored one of the sophomore leaders, with eight of the 23 newcomers targeting broadly similar budgets between $40,000 and $30,000.

Whether that qualifies any of them as “value” can only be guesswork, when history tells us how few of the rookies hyped annually from the rooftops will still be found in Kentucky just a few short years later.

But we also know how many commercial breeders nowadays just flit from one rookie to the next, and that this spring will duly be when farm accountants must bank on retrieving their outlay.

These stallions clearly being a case apart, once again we're treating them accordingly in this opening instalment of our annual quest for value in the Kentucky stallion market. Thereafter, as last year, we'll be sieving through those horses already at stud, in fee bands, starting with the four-figure bargain basement and working all the way up to the snowline inhabited by Into Mischief and friends.

There's limited point rehearsing all the old arguments about the mayfly commercial lifespan of the new sires. Suffice to say that if ever these horses can produce runners, it should be from their first crop–a self-fulfilling consequence of the fact that they typically receive their biggest and best book precisely when charging a fee that subsequently proves, in most cases, to have been terrible value!

In a precarious walk of life, you can't blame commercial breeders merely for anticipating demand. The market is instead driven by those at ringside who claim that they are simply giving clients a chance to stumble on a superstar in the making, only accessible because still unproven. That would be a lot more believable if they didn't then ignore stallions whose fees and books are on the slide, without yet having had a meaningful opportunity to show whether they can produce runners; or indeed, if they even rewarded those whose first foals actually shine under racetrack examination.

Tiz The Law, for instance, is challenging for the freshman title from with lesser resources than his two rivals–yet his second crop actually slipped a little in sales yield, compared with when he still had a blank slate last year. And the same thing happened, only much more steeply in a couple of cases, to all four protagonists in last year's freshman race.

That doesn't mean that such horses can't renew momentum. The point is that people who say they can only hit elite genes by betting on new stallions must explain why, for instance, they temporarily dumped Practical Joke just when his stock had actually begun to offer something substantial to work with. This sire, who otherwise hasn't really missed a commercial beat, averaged just $65,483 with his third-crop yearlings in 2022, despite averaging over $150,000 both before and since; and at a time when he had been surpassed in the class only by Gun Runner, both as freshmen and again in their second campaign. For a certain type of operator, he had presumably served his purpose as one of those high-volume, speed-oriented start-ups; and it was just time to move onto the next model.

If farms could rely on more patient support for horses “on the bubble,” rather than a witless stampede to each new intake of rookies, maybe they could also retrieve their costs in less of a hurry. So if you share that consensus that fees are currently way too high-and the incoming lot certainly won't discourage that opinion-then maybe that's because we're not giving farms enough time to pay for their stallions.

Never mind. Such is the world we live in, and those playing the longer game–those, that is, baffled that breeding “for the sales” can somehow be different from breeding “for the track”–know that ultimately there should be nothing more commercial than putting a winner under your mare.

That being so, way too much investment is being directed exactly where we know it is most likely to fail. But that's precisely why we're treating this crew separately. Today we'll play the same game as everyone else, and try to get lucky finding the one or two who actually go on and make the grade.

As ever, however, this whole series remains a wholly subjective exercise. Highlighted stallions will simply happen to have matched one random set of prejudices. You all know your own mare, and what should suit her, physically and otherwise–which should be the starting point for every mating, after all. Fortunately we will also be favoring each band of stallions with the verdict of some far better judges than this one.

Overview Of the Intake

In a ruthlessly competitive recruiting environment, there's no mistaking the biggest mover among the farms this year. With the great Tapit in the evening of his career, Gainesway has corralled four new prospects–including two of their champion's sons–in the hope of emulating the flying start made by McKinzie. One has found his way onto our Value Podium, but each offers persuasive credentials.

It's certainly gratifying that Arrogate, from tragically confined opportunity, managed to produce an additional heir from his final crop in GI Preakness Stakes winner SEIZE THE GREY. He opens at $30,000, a little under another Classic winner by the same sire, Arcangelo, who started last year over at Lane's End.

There were ups and downs for Seize the Grey, a familiar experience with horses campaigned by Wayne Lukas, but between them they eked out a resilience that must augur well for this horse at stud. It felt important that he corroborated his elite status in the GI Pennsylvania Derby, and don't forget that he beat Dornoch at Saratoga as a juvenile–not a bad maiden special weight! Dam and granddam are both half-sisters to Grade I winners.

Seize the Grey | Sarah Andrew

The two Tapits joining their sire at Gainesway both attempted to redress one of the few gaps in his resume with consecutive cracks at the Derby. 'TDN Rising Star' CHARGE IT reserved his most dazzling performance for his next start, a 23-length blowout in the GIII Dwyer Stakes that earned a 111 Beyer. At four he added the GII Suburban Stakes and if his overall record leaves him on the cusp of the elite, he amply demonstrated the functionality of genes branded by granddam Take Charge Lady (Dehere). Those leave him very fairly priced at $12,500.

'TDN Rising Star' TAPIT TRICE returns to his native farm, having been bought as a yearling for $1.3 million by the Charge It team at Whisper Hill (Gainesway retrieving a stake). He was a good-enough performer to win all that back, and more, getting on a roll (GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner) en route to a bumpy ride at Churchill. He took a little time to regroup but did so with a couple of graded stakes this year, and he's out of half-sister to champion Jaywalk (Cross Traffic).

Tapit's daughters have had a wonderful year and one who was herself graded stakes-placed extends the legacy through a son entering Spendthrift. Though a six-for-nine winner of $1.5 million, his derailment after a first Grade I success in the Stephen Foster Stakes left a sense that KINGSBARNS was only just retrieving the curve he was following from his GII Louisiana Derby success to Churchill. As a son of Uncle Mo who blazed his way to an $800,000 sale at Gulfstream, he looks assured of systematic commercial support at $20,000.

This farm's superpower roster has been further decorated by the two most expensive stallions of the intake. The aforementioned DORNOCH is launched at $40,000, a pretty steep contrast with his brother Mage ($25,000 at Airdrie). In his favor is a record of greater precocity, having completed a juvenile campaign by nosing out Sierra Leone in the GII Remsen Stakes, while he also supplemented his Classic success with another Grade I in the Haskell Stakes. They have obviously made each other's pedigree, and arguably Dornoch has been priced in a way that should help his brother's second book. The addiction to new sires may dictate otherwise, however, and even Mage's historic talent (placing him, remember, alongside only Apollo and Justify) can't prevent Dornoch strictly being credited with the superior body of work.

The horse that thwarted Mage in the Preakness, NATIONAL TREASURE, also makes the Airdrie stallion look good value by asking $40,000 at Spendthrift. But National Treasure did stand up to three campaigns at the highest level, and auspiciously only got better where other horses might have started to lose tyres. We can't treat his GI Met Mile romp quite like others in the past, given a change of venue and the flop of his only serious rival. But previously running the Horse of the Year to a nostril in the GI Dirt Mile at the Breeders' Cup should be enough for anyone, and likewise a Peter Blum family that has been developed as skillfully as you would expect.

The other farm to have assembled a trio of rookies is WinStar. One can be found on our Value Podium, but on fees it is COGBURN who tops the bill at $30,000.

While a witless ride did not assist his quest for a fitting swansong at the Breeders' Cup, he had arrived as one of the most charismatic turf sprinters of recent times. There seem to be no limits on the kind of talent Not This Time can throw, and even on grass nobody will mind tapping into a variant of such unadulterated speed-as famously measured by breaking a minute over 5 1/2 furlongs in the GI Jaipur Stakes. But don't forget that Cogburn had earlier shown what he was all about on dirt, as well. The only thing that might hold him back is the left-field seeding of his family, but we've seen plenty of those come off before.

HEARTLAND looks a pure roll of the dice at $10,000. A Justify half-brother to Classic Empire who made $575,000 as a yearling, his 'TDN Rising Star' debut at Del Mar was good for a 90 Beyer. That will doubtless embolden some breeders to salute the next Maclean's Music, especially if they're aiming to hit the precocity pinhook button. Even more plainly than with the rest of these, however, that can only be a matter of hope and not belief.

Others starting out at a modest fee include an interesting pair at Darby Dan. Good Magic is quickly doing big things for the Curlin sire-line and his son BLAZING SEVENS fell only cents short of millionaire status, having added a head defeat in the Preakness to his commercially seductive juvenile career (Saratoga debut and GI Champagne Stakes winner). Europeans will discover some heartwarming names deep in the pedigree, but closer up, this is surely a rock-solid market play at $12,500.

SHIRL'S SPEIGHT might be more of a risk, as a veteran turf horse, but this is only the latest product of a program that constantly punches above weight. Its focus on pedigree tells in the aristocratic genes accessible at just $5,000 here: Shirl's Speight is out of a Grade I-winning half-sister to both a Grade I winner and a Grade I producer. He has been priced for breeders who prize “run” and you absolutely know that his owner will sooner or later come up with a Shirl's Speight to embarrass rivals sired far more expensively.

We all know how hard it is to stand a turf horse in the Bluegrass today. But Oscar Performance has given everyone hope, thanks to a farm that has made a dynamic return to the stallion game. Mill Ridge now adds another really wholesome option in CASA CREED at $10,000. This is the 9-for-36 winner of $2.7 million, who hardly missed a beat across seven campaigns. His record in the GI Fourstardave Handicap alone reads 3311, while he divided four Grade I wins equally between six furlongs and a mile. If people actually want to walk the walk on breeding to soundness and constitution, then they need to get involved with the most venerable horse in the intake. I for one believe in the Creed.

Casa Creed | Sarah Andrew

While we're on the weeds, MORE THAN LOOKS also looks generously priced on $15,000 at Lane's End. If you operate one of those oddball programs that wants to breed winners, then you'd have to be interested in the turn of foot this dashing animal showed when cutting down an international field in the GI Breeders' Cup Mile. He has a solid page and I can see his commercial profile soon being raised by European pinhookers, who would expect to pay a lot more for an equivalent talent over the water.

I always thought that DOMESTIC PRODUCT would find his way towards the apex of the crop and Coolmore's industrial model virtually guarantees that he will prove a force at $30,000. The day Fierceness was turned over in the GIII Holy Bull Stakes, I only had eyes for the runner-up, who flashed a ton of raw ability. Though he duly made a Derby bid obligatory, he later thrived with a drop in distance and that speed is going to gain a lot of commercial favor, especially when underpinned by such a striking physique. Admittedly it's not the deepest page, but the genes were demonstrably functional and he would have been an easy fit for the Value Podium.

Perhaps closer yet, at $30,000, was the horse who ran Domestic Product so close in the GI Allen Jerkens Stakes this summer. 'TDN Rising Star' PRINCE OF MONACO brings a highly commercial profile to Claiborne, a Bluegrass institution showing a willingness to adapt to a changing environment. This was one of the most precocious juveniles of his crop in California, conspicuously so for a son of Speightstown (in fact, his only Grade I winner at two). And, though confined to a very light sophomore career, he emphatically confirmed himself an elite sprinter. There's more quality in the family than the seeding might lead you to expect, always an excellent sign, and I have heard very good things indeed about his physique.

An older-school arrival at the same farm is BRIGHT FUTURE, a Jockey Club Gold Cup winner whose perseverance at five did not really pay off. There's depth to his page, and Grade I-winning sons of Curlin have every right to work out at $12,500.

The Three Chimneys team also welcome two newcomers in their quest for another Gun Runner. One is his sons GUN PILOT, who actually did what everyone originally presumed his sire's stock would typically do, by thriving with maturity–albeit he did also contribute to the wider surprise as one of Gun Runner's single-turn flyers. He got his Grade I in the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes and there's a nice mirror between his own family and that of his sire. Obviously people are turning to sons of Gun Runner for affordable access to his genes and it makes sense to have one standing alongside.

NEWGATE is seeking a similar niche, as a $20,000 son of another top gun in Into Mischief. He stands over and covers the ground much as you would expect of a $850,000 yearling, and that athleticism carried him to the brink of the top tier. In fact, he got his day in the Grade I sun when scrambling home in the Santa Anita Handicap, before coming home first of the older horses in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic. Lightly raced sister Denims and Pearls was a Grade II winner this year, and Newgate's looks are going to drive plenty of trade his way. Just as for Gun Pilot, however, the proliferation of rival heirs will make it imperative to capitalize on that rookie vogue.

Crestwood did a great job launching Caracaro and now welcomes two equally legitimate prospects. 'TDN Rising Star' STAGE RAIDER is a half-brother to a horse named Justify, and at one stage he threatened to achieve stardom himself. He still showed plenty of talent on his day, and evidently looks the part, so if he's even half as effective as Justify at recycling their dam's genes, then he will need consideration at rather less than half the fee!

Stage Raider | Chelsea Durand

He starts at just $6,500, in fact, and so does CLASSIC CAUSEWAY, a real collector's item from the last crop of the great Giant's Causeway. Nor is he merely a sentimental hope, as a Grade I scorer who banked over $1.5 million. Some of his adventures after winning the GI Belmont Derby might have dulled attention, but imagine the fee he might have commanded had he quit after his fifth start (all dirt to that point). A Saratoga debut winner placed in Grade I/II company on his two remaining juvenile starts, he had then won both Tampa Bay halts on the road to the Derby. His page is pretty much a non-event until suddenly you come to his dam, who won her first three juvenile starts (two in stakes) in a curtailed career. With a sire like his, stranger things have happened.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE meanwhile arrives at Taylor Made on $7,500. Like several in this intake, his family has some unfamiliar seeding while nonetheless, auspiciously, producing some quality on a consistent basis. He has been mildly priced for a GI Arkansas Derby winner who then ran third in the big one–doubtless a consequence of disappearing for a year and a half before his debut in the covering shed. Breeders overcoming recency bias can profit accordingly.

After all, all these horses must now start over. Over the years we've been as surprised by the horses that succeed as by those that don't. But here, for the little it may be worth, are three that on paper seem to have as good a chance as any.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: ARABIAN KNIGHT

Uncle Mo–Borealis Knight, by Astrology

Hill 'n' Dale, $30,000

This looks like a Knight in shining armor for those seeking class underpinned by looks. On the face of it, admittedly, his track career did not suggest old-school substance, confined as he was to six starts in three phases. But he managed to confirm elite caliber within those limits, and his physique will surely embolden breeders choosing among the sons of Uncle Mo competing with their expensive sire.

Arabian Knight was a spectacular pinhook, converting his $250,000 Book 1 tag to $2.3 million at Ocala the following spring, where he satisfied one of the best judges of our time. He showed why with a 'TDN Rising Star' debut at Keeneland that fall, and his standing in the Baffert barn was corroborated when he burned them off in the GIII Southwest Stakes. It tells you everything about his charisma that a six-month layoff did not prevent him starting hot favorite against the Derby winner in the Haskell, where a good third set him up to hold out narrowly in the GI Pacific Classic. But his subsequent fourth at the Breeders' Cup reinforced a hunch that he was barely lasting home, and perhaps we barely glimpsed what may have proved his true metier, around a single turn. As he then derailed in a solitary start at four, there are a couple of reasons for suspecting that a more expensive stallion may yet lurk within Arabian Knight.

But while his pedigree lends only tolerable support to the package, one way or another it produced a beautiful machine capable of effortless speed. That goes a long way in the commercial market, and Arabian Knight will surely inject brilliance into suitably robust mares.

Silver: TIMBERLAKE

Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky

WinStar, $20,000

On the face of it, this is just another precocious Into Mischief dasher for the commercial market. You know the kind of thing: 'TDN Rising Star' debut romper at Ellis, success in the GI Champagne Stakes sandwiched by a GI Hopeful Stakes second and fourth at the Breeders' Cup; and then just overtaken by a few maturing peers as a sophomore, with a GII Rebel Stakes thrown in to reassure us that the flame still burned.

But what sets Timberlake apart is the way his speed and precocity are shored up by the family brilliantly curated by Richard Henry under the Darshaan (GB) mare Jude (Ire).

There are things about this page that a Kentucky farm might nowadays almost wish to suppress: such as the fact that Timberlake's dam, by the criminally underrated Lookin At Lucky, won over 14 furlongs on grass; and that the granddam missed out only by a neck in a Group 2 over the same distance, having previously placed in two Classics over a mile and a half. But the bottom line, literally, is that the family under and alongside Jude is one of the deepest in Europe.

So while commercial breeders and pinhookers will be glad to recycle the assets that were so conspicuous in Timberlake himself, there's a depth to his pedigree that also entitles him to sire two-turn Classic types. Into Mischief fizzing up a line seeded by Lookin At Lucky, Sadler's Wells and Darshaan really offers the best of both worlds.

Timberlake deployed the combination so effectively as a dirt juvenile that he nearly offers a bet to nothing. You'd think he can barely miss, in the marketplace, while appropriate mares would reserve the right additionally to draw from his family reserves that he never quite mined himself.

Gold: MUTH

Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo

Gainesway, $35,000

Here's another to have found his way onto our podium via juvenile selection by the great Donato Lanni.

Like Arabian Knight, Muth was a knockout pinhook, found deep in the September Sale for $190,000 before making $2 million at Ocala. His position in the Keeneland catalogue acknowledged a compressed page, but that is primarily about brevity of production–he's the first foal of a mare that only produced two registered foals–and beyond that the roots have comforting depth. The third dam is a sister to a GII E.P. Taylor Stakes winner (who went on to produce top-class European juvenile War Command {War Front}) out of a His Majesty half-sister to that wholesome influence Silver Hawk. Irrelevant to many of you, no doubt, but to me that produces a top-to-bottom “stairwell” of seamless quality through the fourth generation.

Somewhere in those foundations Muth unmistakably found an elite talent. A dazzling 'TDN Rising Star' on debut, he showed that he hadn't been himself for his stakes debut when proceeding to win the GI American Pharoah Stakes and then beat all bar champion Fierceness at the Breeders' Cup. His wins on the Derby trail notoriously secured no Derby points, but he included the eventual winner among those gasping in his wake in the GI Arkansas Derby and was favorite to beat him again when scratched from the Preakness. Unfortunately the light had gone out when he resurfaced in the fall, but the lasting impression he had made on the track will be underpinned by that special physique.

With Good Magic looking eligible to found his own branch of the Curlin dynasty, and backed by a farm showing increasing market aggression, Muth seems guaranteed to generate the momentum vital to any new stallions.

Value Sires–New Sires: The Breeders Speak

PAUL MANGANARO

GOLD: National Treasure (Quality Road–Treasure, by Medaglia d'Oro), Spendthrift, $40,000.

By the highly regarded Quality Road, National Treasure is a three-time Grade I and Classic winner. He has great potential to sire good, American Classic-type horses during his career. I believe he is very good value at $40,000.

SILVER: Muth (Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo), Gainesway, $35,000.

Muth is by the red hot stallion Good Magic. I love the Curlin sire line. He is grand-looking and was a $2-million 2-year-old. I love the fact that he is a Grade I winner at two and three and was consistent; winning five of his nine lifetime starts with two seconds. He was at the top of his crop in ability and he's a lot of horse for a fee of $35,000.

BRONZE: Newgate (Into Mischief–Majestic Presence, by Majestic Warrior), Three Chimneys, $20,000.

At $20,000, you can breed to a Grade I-winning son of Into Mischief with outstanding conformation. He was on the board in eight of his 12 lifetime starts and earned over $1 million. He was quick enough to break his maiden going 5 1/2 furlongs at two and had enough class to win his Grade I going 10 furlongs in the Santa Anita H.

BRAD KING

GOLD: ARABIAN KNIGHT (Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology), Hill 'n' Dale, $30,000

He checks all the boxes for what I like in a stallion. Pure, fast, dirt speed as a 2-year-old is very important for our program and he was jaw dropping in that first start on the Breeders' Cup undercard. He is a fantastic looking horse and he proved in the Pacific Classic he could get the Classic distance.

SILVER: Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit), Spendthrift, $20,000

Very similar to my top choice, and he was very fast in the 2-year-old sale. Great looks and excelled around two turns. Great value at $20,000.

BRONZE: Prince of Monaco (Speightstown–Rainier, by Medaglia d'Oro), Claiborne, $30,000

He was ultra fast at Del Mar as a 2-year-old, and has always been a knockout to look at.