Kentucky Value Sires 2020, Part 1: New Stallions

Welcome to the opening leg of our annual marathon survey of the Kentucky stallion market. Over the coming weeks, at irregular intervals, we'll be taking a tour of each intake–starting today with the new names in town, moving on next to those whose first foals are about to arrive, and so on until we reach the senior pros.

Two things to make clear before we enter the gate. First of all, rest assured we'll follow up with a supplementary instalment, assessing regional sires. But also be in no doubt that the series is compiled with an ever more perplexed sense of exactly what “value” is supposed to be, in a market that appears–in its obsession with the sales ring–to have an ever more tangential connection to the racetrack itself.

As a result, you could argue that end users have never had it so good. But can we sensibly propose, as the best “value” in the market, stallions whose fees–because they will never gain commercial traction, no matter how well their stock perform relative to their cost–will very likely only decline in future? Must we buy into the communal folly that seeks to smoke out only those few stallions who benefit from whatever fleeting fad infects a single round of weanling and yearling sales?

Such dilemmas, of course, are seldom more pertinent than in regard to these newcomers. Because we all know that no sector of the market offers worse “value” than the one we explore today. The fact is that the vast majority of these stallions will never again command fees as high as their opening ones. Even the few who do manage to build a sustainable career in Kentucky will typically do so only after taking a clip in fee to help them ride out the customary bumps of their third and fourth seasons.

And, if anything, the situation only seems to get worse by the year. You can't blame the stallion farms, who are at the mercy of the market's panicked, self-fulfilling vogues for this or that unproven stallion. As such, the farms find themselves being given an ever narrower window in which to get their money back.

Previously they could hope to generate enough business across the three seasons available to a stallion before he gets even the most superficial test of whether his stock can actually run. (“Superficial” because a handful of early juveniles, quite plainly, is hardly a sensible way to judge the type of two-turn stallion we should be considering with the first Saturday in May in mind). Now stallions are increasingly going cold even before their first foals are on the ground, as the fast-buck customers simply transfer their trust to the next intake.

But if farms find themselves helplessly at the mercy of the market, then nor can we judge the breeders and pinhookers too harshly. Theirs is a tough business, with precarious margins. The only way we can improve what is actually a terribly dangerous environment, in terms of the breed's long-term interests, is by a collective reset. Whether the proposed book limit of 140 is the solution is a debate for another day, though there's no doubt that the problem it seeks to tackle is very much about the unproven stallion.

Anyway, in the spirit of Christmas, let's see if we can discover a “value” that brings us all together–both commercial breeders and end users–among those stallions setting up shop for 2020.

Only one place to start, and that's at Spendthrift–home to the first, second and joint-third most expensive members of the new intake.

We've previously given due credit to B. Wayne Hughes and his team, headed by Ned Toffey, after four of their five new recruits had the chance to put themselves in the shop window at the Breeders' Cup. Two of those four arguably did more for their opening fees than any other stallion prospect at the meeting, in Mitole and Vino Rosso–nonetheless without managing to overhaul their new studmate, OMAHA BEACH (War Front–Charming, by Seeking the Gold), who tops the class at $40,000 despite his runner-up effort in the GI Dirt Mile.

That's a measure of a campaign that a couple of times tantalized us with the possibility that a puzzling sophomore crop might be clarified by a pretty historic talent. As it was, he bookended his frustrating absence from the Triple Crown series with Grade I wins over nine furlongs, beating Improbable (City Zip) and Country House (Lookin At Lucky) in the Arkansas Derby, and six, running down a real specialist at the discipline in Shancealot (Shanghai Bobby) in 1:08 4/5.

At the Breeders' Cup, he was the most conspicuous victim of the way the track was riding, acquitting himself very creditably in the circumstances, and he retains every right to prove himself the classiest colt of his generation in the GI Pegasus World Cup next month–for which he warms up in the GI Runhappy Malibu S. on the postponed opening card at Santa Anita.

Even if he were to win both those races, we won't necessarily feel that he has explored the full extent of his ability before retirement, which is not his fault but clearly a shame. But he has already shown enough brilliance and versatility to appear viable at the top of the market, not least when breeders know those assets to be underpinned by an exceptional pedigree.

For he is not only as good a dirt performer as War Front has produced, but also a grandson of Take Charge Lady–herself top-class on the track and proving of similar caliber in her second career. That's no less than you might expect of a daughter of Dehere, himself by the mighty broodmare influence Deputy Minister out of a Secretariat mare.

Omaha Beach's dam Charming is meanwhile herself by Seeking the Gold, another top-class broodmare sire. She is, of course, a half-sister to two Grade I winners in Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song) and Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy), and has already produced a champion in Take Charge Brandi (Giant's Causeway). Both Take Charge Lady and War Front are out of Rubiano mares, which injection of pure racing dash is balanced by the copper-bottomed input of Rubiano's dam, the Nijinsky mare Ruby Slippers, who is also the second dam of the modern colossus Tapit.

Bittersweet as his departure from the track seems right now, you can see why people would be in a hurry to get access to those genes. The commercial nous of the current Spendthrift team has seldom been harnessed to a young stallion of such distinguished pedigree, so the sky really is the limit.

Mind you, they're also taking a pretty illustrious package to market in VINO ROSSO (Curlin–Mythical Bride, by Street Cry {Ire}) at $30,000. Funnily enough, you couldn't get a better advertisement for the merit of keeping an older horse in training, Vino Rosso having emerged from the shadows of his erstwhile paddock companion, Justify (Scat Daddy), to round off his third campaign with an authentic championship performance in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

His dam, like Omaha Beach, is by a sire from the Mr. Prospector line out of a granddaughter of Deputy Minister, this time via Touch Gold. Significantly, however, this pattern is also replicated through Vino Rosso's sire Curlin–himself a grandson of Mr P. and out of a Deputy Minister mare. Vino Rosso duly offers a 4×3 dash of both these priceless influences.

His dam is a half-sister to two Grade I runners-up in Commissioner (A.P. Indy) (Belmont S.) and Laugh Track (Distorted Humor) (Breeders' Cup Sprint); and he's an impressive animal, physically, with his own track record speaking persuasively of the kind of soundness that comes at an increasing premium in this day and age.

If anything, his profile may be almost too worthy for some of the more feckless commercial breeders around, but he is absolutely entitled to breed you a top-class two-turn horse–which should be enough for most of us. As with Omaha Beach, it'll be fascinating to see the pioneering Spendthrift style applied to such a wholesome, old-school cause.

Those of their clients who want speed galore, of course, have a terribly exciting new option in MITOLE (Eskendereya–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie) at $25,000. His six-for-seven campaign, incorporating four Grade Is, is absolutely Horse of the Year material and even before the summer Bill Landes, long-serving manager at Hermitage, was already able to identify Mitole as the fastest horse ever raised on the farm. That seasoned judgement was vindicated by brilliant scores in races of such stallion-making resonance as the GI Met Mile and the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint, not to mention a new stakes record in the storied GI Forego S.

Some people might hesitate over his sire Eskendereya, but that son of Giant's Causeway was shipped off to Japan with culpable haste and Mitole is his second Met Mile winner in his first three crops. Eskendereya has a sensational family behind him and, while Mitole is a fitting tribute to his late breeder Ed Cox, that is surely a factor in the way he has ignited a horse as fast as Mitole from a somewhat less aristocratic background (albeit Mitole's dam is a half to a Grade II winner).

One way or another Mitole has harvested triple-digit Beyers and was able to carry his speed through the Met Mile while contesting fractions of :22.17, :44.38, 1:08.24 and 1:32.75. There's going to be no shortage of breeders giving him the chance to prove that this kind of flair is based in genetically repeatable assets.

Two other farms are introducing stallions at the same $25,000 peg. One is WinStar, which will perhaps understand the retirement of Omaha Beach after their own experience with AUDIBLE (Into Mischief–Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time). Persevering after his sophomore campaign was interrupted for six months, he unfortunately disappeared for good after the G1 Dubai World Cup in March.

With Into Mischief nowadays in the fee stratosphere, there's bound to be interest in such a striking son; and one, moreover, who carried his sire's trademark speed through a GI Florida Derby romp and onto a Kentucky Derby podium. In doing so, he doubtless drew on a maternal line extending through his fourth dam, triple Grade I winner Classy Cathy (Private Account), to a fertile Claiborne family.

Claiborne itself launches CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready–Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)–who, much like his international sire More Than Ready, looks eligible to meet ever greater demand for versatility in terms of the racing surface.

While he didn't especially advance his cause at four, mustering a single success in three Grade II starts, it's certainly worth winding back the clock to his four-length GI Travers S. defeat of Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) when returned to dirt last year. He had won a Grade I on turf on his previous start, having already attested to a remarkably transferable talent as a juvenile. (After three starts on grass–winning a Gulfstream maiden and a graded stakes at Saratoga before a troubled fourth at the Breeders' Cup–he switched to dirt for an impressive score in the GII Remsen S.).

So here's a stallion without frontiers. Seeding a solid family, you have to like Bernardini, Seeking the Gold and Nijinsky behind his first three dams. Farther back, Argentinian roots are shared with La Lorgnette, a Canadian champion on the track and dam of a European one in Hawk Wing.

A similar profile benefits YOSHIDA (JPN) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}–Hilda's Passion, by Canadian Frontier), likewise an elite winner on both turf and dirt, who starts at WinStar on $20,000. He made a stunning debut on the main track in the GI Woodward S., having two starts previously been beaten barely a length over a straight mile at Royal Ascot, in the G1 Queen Anne S.–typical of his tough and consistent contribution wherever he showed up. In finishing second in the GI Whitney S. this year, for instance, he clocked the best of his five triple-digit Beyers. And he backs it all up physically, as a strong and fluid animal who cost the equivalent of $750,000 as a yearling.

Dismantling barriers between different disciplines is apt work for a son of Heart's Cry (Jpn), a globetrotting star in his racing days, and Yoshida is certainly eligible to assist in the repatriation of the Sunday Silence line. His dam Hilda's Passion, while by a left-field son of Gone West in Canadian Frontier, tore up the GI Ballerina S. by nine lengths and broke the seven-furlong track record at Gulfstream. Otherwise the immediate family may seem fairly plain, but it tapers to the dam of Damascus.

Certainly only the most parochial breeders will need the slightest persuasion about Heart's Cry, who has had a stellar year with winners of the G1 Cox Plate and G1 Japan Cup, and stands as the premier conduit for their sire following the death of Deep Impact. We know that the Halo line has transcended all borders, not just through Sunday Silence's conquest of Japan, but also through the shuttling of WinStar's venerable More Than Ready. As such, Yoshida has the potential to become an important stallion.

CATALINA CRUISER (Union Rags–Sea Gull, by Mineshaft), on the face of it, starts out at $20,000 as a contrastingly dyed-in-the-wool, indigenous dirt miler. Needless to say, he does so at Lane's End, home to his sire Union Rags, grandsire Dixie Union and great-grandsire Dixieland Band; not to mention his dam Sea Gull, her sire Mineshaft and grandsire A.P. Indy.

While he will need to be carefully matched, as such a brawny animal, he did not owe his bulldozing, seven-for-nine, dominating style–he won his first two Grade II starts by a combined 14 lengths–merely to his build. There's plenty of class in his page, too. He's a half-brother to graded stakes winner and Grade I-placed Eagle (Candy Ride {Arg}) out of a Storm Bird mare, whose own dam was half-sister both to a Group 1- winning miler in Europe and to speed sire Mt. Livermore.

Their mother, herself Grade I-placed, was by Crimson Satan, whose broodmare legacy includes the dam of Royal Academy/ granddam of Storm Cat. I like that nugget of diversifying class, but basically Catalina Cruiser's pedigree is loaded with Classic sires–with Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Secretariat and Seattle Slew all recurring both top and bottom. And, if they have contributed to his bruising dirt style, Union Rags does introduce very classy turf elements to his page.

Another stallion joining his own, flourishing young sire is WORLD OF TROUBLE (Kantharos–Meets Expectations, by Valid Expectations), alongside Kantharos at Hill 'n' Dale at $15,000. Here is another switch-hitter to have won Grade I races over both turf and dirt, with a record of 13-9-2-1 outstanding for the hustle and bustle of the sprint division.

He looks a radiantly commercial package, having broken his maiden at two by 14 lengths and twice won stakes sprints by the same margin. And he looked more effortlessly fast than ever at four, pairing up the GI Carter H. on dirt with the GI Jaipur Invitational on turf only to be derailed by a foot bruise. He got within a neck of Stormy Liberal when taking on older horses at the GI Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint last year, in the process earning a higher Beyer (118) than any contemporary sophomore.

His is a fast page all round: out of a Valid Expectations half-sister to another Kantharos flyer, Bucchero, who won back-to-back runnings of the GII Woodford S. and is himself in demand at stud in Florida; while the third dam won a Grade II at seven furlongs. It's the easiest thing in the world to picture World Of Trouble launching bullet workers at the Florida 2-year-old sales in 2023.

One who's literally going home is Darley homebred ENTICED (Medaglia d'Oro–It's Tricky, by Mineshaft), the sole addition to the Jonabell roster at $10,000. He's by farm legend Medaglia d'Oro out of multiple Grade I winner It's Tricky, which is a lot of track quality for the fee–perhaps reflecting a relative lack of depth beyond, albeit the second dam was a graded stakes winner. Anyway the genes functioned with appealing precocity in Enticed, as a maiden winner at the Spa who was able to make the frame in the GI Champagne S. on only his second start before winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Though he did win the GIII Gotham S. the next spring, he disappeared after running down the field in Justify's Derby. Obviously that feels a long time ago now, but he'll be given every chance to jog a few memories.

Airdrie introduces a couple of really appealing prospects. PRESERVATIONIST (Arch–Flying Dixie, by Dixieland Band) was a late bloomer at six, but proved well worth the wait, dishing out a 4 1/2-length thrashing to Catholic Boy (and breaking two minutes in the process) in the GII Suburban S. before gaining his Grade I laurels in the Woodward S. He is the 18th graded stakes winner under his first three dams and both sire and dam trace to King Ranch legends, in Courtly Dee and Too Chic. There isn't a corpuscle of his blood without quality.

You can judge his build from a $485,000 yearling tag, a rare case of Arch getting his due commercially, and you could see that come through in the dash with which he deployed his brawn once achieving maturity. Remember he was quick enough to break his maiden in 1:09.35, and he's a most welcome addition to the Arch legacy at $10,000.

The same farm dangles another very tempting recruit at $7,500, DIVISIDERO (Kitten's Joy–Madame du Lac, by Lemon Drop Kid) likewise benefitting from a female line for the ages–via Halo's dam Cosmah, in fact, to the breed-shaping Almahmoud. Like so many of the best sons of Kitten's Joy, Divisidero underpinned his class with durability, holding form and enthusiasm through five seasons (29-7-6-4 for $1.6 million) including consecutive wins in the GI Turf Classic.

I'm always open to horses proving their adaptability, but the elite European horses in this one's pedigree–together with the turn of foot he exhibited on the track–suggest that he will follow his sire as a trademarked turf influence. As and when the American market actually starts walking the walk on grass horses, instead of just talking the talk, stallions like this will be moving right through the pay grades. In the meantime, end users (and European pinhookers, if they have their wits about them) would do well to take advantage.

There's some top-class turf blood behind FLAMEAWAY (Scat Daddy–Vulcan Rose, by Fusaichi Pegasus), who has joined Darby Dan at the same fee. His granddam is a half-sister by G1 Epsom Derby winner Generous (Ire) to two Group 1 winners in Marju (Ire) (Last Tycoon {Ire}) and the wonderful filly Salsabil (Ire) (Sadler's Wells); and obviously his own sire Scat Daddy has proved a very versatile influence. Sure enough, Flameaway won at a variety of distances over turf, dirt and synthetics, holding his form over 18 starts; and if he couldn't crack the very highest level, he owns one of the better Grade IIIs you'll ever see after beating Catholic Boy and Vino Rosso in the Sam F. Davis S. As a Saratoga stakes winner on his second juvenile start, he obviously had precocity, too–and his farm will reliably give him every chance to recycle that.

Returning to where we began, the Spendthrift team may have three very glamorous recruits this year, but that doesn't mean they will suddenly start neglecting the small breeders they have served so well. MAXIMUS MISCHIEF (Into Mischief–Reina Maria, by Songandaprayer), at $7,500, gets a chance to assist Goldencents in establishing farm colossus Into Mischief as a sire of sires. He'd hardly be the first stallion to become a legitimate influence without having proven his soundness, and he certainly showed the juvenile flair so dear to commercial breeders–graduating seamlessly through runaway maiden and allowance wins at Parx, before stretching out to include Tax (Arch) and Bourbon War (Tapit) among his GII Remsen S. victims.

Those two became useful contributors to the Classic trail this year, but Maximus Mischief himself disappeared for good after finishing third in the GII Fasig-Tipton Holy Bull S. Each of his juvenile numbers put him among the quickest of his crop, and his dam is a half-sister to a Grade I winner at two in Secret Compass (Discreet Cat). You suspect it might take The Jockey Club plus an act of Congress to keep this guy down to 140 mares, especially with a more imposing build than most by his sire. Whatever happens, it's hard to believe he won't punch above his fee.

Spendthrift's fifth new face is COAL FRONT (Stay Thirsty–Miner's Secret, by Mineshaft), who starts at $5,000 and offers a fine physique backed up by an intriguing pedigree. Both his parents share a grandsire in A.P. Indy, whose sire Seattle Slew and Mr. Prospector both recur top-and-bottom in his dam's pedigree. He didn't make it to the track at two, but proved a horse in a hurry at three, a Saratoga graded stakes winner on only his third start; and of course he had his big payday in Dubai this year, winning the G2 Godolphin Mile.

The others starting on the bottom rung of the Kentucky ladder, at $5,000, all do so with a grass orientation.

DEMARCHELIER (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}–Loveisallyouneed {Ire}, by Sadler's Wells), in introducing the Dubawi (Ire) line to Kentucky breeders, belongs in the noblest transatlantic traditions of Claiborne. He is actually a pretty rare combination of the Maktoums' premier European stallion and one of the most productive families to have served their antagonists at Ballydoyle (dam sister to two Grade 1 winners among many other excellent performers/producers). Exported as a yearling by Peter Brant, he made a flawless start through maiden, allowance and graded stakes, only to break down when testing the Grade I water in the Belmont Derby Invitational. We'll never know whether he had genuine elite caliber on the track, but the genes make it perfectly possible.

Certainly it will be fascinating to see how he might work out, in the hands of Kentucky breeders, and the same is true of LOST TREASURE (IRE) (War Front–Wading {Ire}, by Montjeu {Ire}) at Hill 'n' Dale. He represents what is today the best family in the European stud book, but in this instance War Front appears to have mined the Classic maternal line that gave us Galileo (Ire) and Sea the Stars (Ire) to produce a sprinter. He was a timely split in traffic away from shocking Europe's fastest in the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye, only beaten a length at 100-1.

Lost Treasure may mean nothing to you now, but his far-sighted farm will put him into play and–if his blood can tell–then he will turn out to be a steal even by the standards of America's chronically undervalued turf stallions.

A good example being English Channel, whose son HEART TO HEART (English Channel–Ask the Question, by Silver Deputy) looks a very worthy find by Crestwood. He's a real throwback, persevering from an eight-length debut win sprinting at two to consecutive Grade I wins at the age of seven. In all, he amassed 11 graded stakes wins across seven seasons, posting 18 triple-digit Beyers, often pouring it on from the front. His dam is by Silver Deputy, a conduit of the Deputy Minister distaff influence highlighted above in favor of much more expensive stallions; and the second dam is a half-sister to a Grade I winner.

Heart To Heart was a $25,000 Canadian yearling, and maybe the world he was born into simply hasn't changed enough. But it should do, and soon. In the meantime, let's hope that end users can make hay.

The relative depth of turf racing either side of the ocean, as things stand, can be measured by the career of QURBAAN (Speightstown–Flip Flop {Fr}, by Zieten). No more than a listed winner in three seasons in Europe, he migrated to win consecutive runnings of the GII Bernard Baruch H., besides gaining a couple of Grade I placings. His mother had actually done much the same, but he is a durable son of Speightstown and has been accommodated on a small roster in the midst of one of Kentucky's best broodmare herds at Shadwell.

CHRIS McGRATH'S VALUE PODIUM

Gold: Preservationist, $10,000 Airdrie

Old school bloodlines contain everything we need today

Silver: Omaha Beach, $40,000 Spendthrift

Value, the top price of the intake? But really, he just can't miss…

Bronze: Maximus Mischief, $7,500 Spendthrift

An obvious, unapologetic commercial prospect