Kentucky November Sales: Through Book 4

Through Tuesday there had been nine sessions of selling at the Kentucky November sales, one 'night of the stars' (though they don't call it that any more) at Fasig-Tipton, and eight sessions through the first four (of seven) books at Keeneland. A total of 1,783 horses had sold (actually just 88, or 5% of the total, at Fasig) for a combined gross of $258,163,000 (about $54.1-million at Fasig, $204-million at Keeneland), an average of $144,791. At the corresponding point in the sales last year, there had been 1,807 horses sold, for a gross of $248,843,000, and an average of $137,710. Aside from marvelling at how such a massive number of transactions come out roughly the same–the number sold is down 1%, the gross is up 4%, and the average up 5%–it does suggest there is truth in the old adage 'class is a pyramid', because there are only so many class horses to go around, and not all of them end up in the sales. A total of 34 (15 at Fasig, 19 at Keeneland) have made $1-million or more, with four of those selling for between $3-$4-million, and a total of 13 selling for $2-million or more.

Sectors: according to figures compiled by Dr. Emily Plant from the two websites, there had been 1,375 mares catalogued in foal through the end of Book 4, of which 870 (63.2%) had sold for a total of $149,537,400, an average of $171,882, and accounting for roughly 60% of the November gross so far. A total of 1,251 weanlings had been catalogued, of which 606 (48.4%) had sold, for a gross of $56,850,900, an average of $93,813. That left a little under 300 other horses, mostly fillies out of training and racehorses, which have grossed around another $50-million. So the market for in-foal mares continues to dominate the sales, and their clearance rate from the catalogue (63.2%) was nearly one-third higher than the 48.4% rate attained by weanlings.

As we've come to expect, the two top sires both by in-foal mare average and weanling average were Tapit and War Front. The Claiborne sire actually averaged more than Tapit for in-foal mares, War Front's six averaging $1,720,833, while 12 mares in foal to Tapit averaged $1,610,417. Among the weanlings, Tapit had five sell from 10 catalogued, for an average of $692,000, while War Front had eight sell, from 11 catalogued, for an average of $640,750. In both categories, as at the yearling sales, they were miles ahead of the competition.

For whatever reasons, there has been a wicked withdrawal rate of weanlings, such that the number three Kentucky November sire (with more than one sold) by weanling average, Medaglia d'Oro, had four foals average $437,500, but that was from 13 catalogued. Pioneerof the Nile had four average $337,500, from 10 catalogued. Besides siring the first horse to win the Triple Crown in 37 years from his second crop, he now has the pro tem champion 2-year-old colt, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Classic Empire, in his fourth crop, while one of the best horses from his first crop, Grade II winner Cairo Prince, has been a huge commercial sensation among sires with first weanlings, as we shall see presently. After Pioneerof the Nile in fourth spot, Scat Daddy ran fifth through Tuesday, with 11 weanlings selling (of 24 catalogued) for an average of $245,455. Other notable sires with six-figure weanling averages through Book 4 included: Curlin had 12 sell from 12 offered (19 catalogued) for an average of $197,250; Uncle Mo had 28 sell (of 48 catalogued) for an average of $143,464; Into Mischief had 14 weanlings sell for an average of $109,286; while the Leading Freshman Sire, Union Rags, had 11 sell for an average of $107,818.

Among the first-year weanling sires, Three Chimneys Farm's Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song), the champion 3-year-old colt of 2013, figured to lead the pack and has, through Book 4, with 18 foals (of 30 catalogued) averaging $128,444. Coolmore's GI Breeders' Cup Turf and G1 Irish 2000 Guineas winner Magician (Galileo) is a somewhat surprising second, but with just three sold (of seven catalogued), which averaged a very healthy $96,667. But the commercial star, hands down, is Airdrie's (and Darley's) Cairo Prince, the 2014 GII Holy Bull winner from Pioneerof the Nile's first crop. He had 16 foals average $95,938 off a stud fee of $10,000. We joked with Airdrie's Bret Jones that they'd deliberately set the stud fee too low, but even if he had stood at the $15,000 price which he's been since his first season, his foals through Book 4 would have averaged over six times his stud fee.

Three horses were clustered together around the $75,000 mark: Lane's End's Noble Mission, Frankel's brother, had 10 average $77,800, of 22 catalogued. Coolmore Ashford's Verrazano (More Than Ready) had 21 sell (of 46 catalogued) for an average of $75,810; while WinStar's Fed Biz (Giant's Causeway) was also generating a lot of buzz, with an impressive 16 sold of 20 catalogued (80%), for an average of $75,688–over six times his $12,500 fee. Like Cairo Prince, the individuals were clearly impressing the judges.

The clearance rate from the catalogue for in-foal mares, as noted above, has been nearly 15% higher than that for yearlings. A total of 11 sires had in-foal mare averages, through Tuesday, over $400,000, and among them, over two-thirds of the mares catalogued in foal to these 11 sires were listed as sales. These included two first-year sires: Ashford's American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile), of course–11 mares in foal to him averaged $435,000–but the leading first-year covering sire was WinStar's GI Florida Derby and GI Donn H. winner Constitution (Tapit), to whom Ithinkisawapudycat, a daughter of Bluegrass Cat who is the dam of the Grade I-winning 2-year-old filly Sweet Loretta, sold in foal for $2.2-million. Constitution thus had seven mares average $508,143 in foal, though besides the big mare, the other six averaged $226,166.

Besides War Front, Tapit, and leading first-year covering sires Constitution and American Pharoah, the other seven sires which averaged over $400,000 were: Curlin (8 sold of 12 catalogued, avg $834,375); Medaglia d'Oro (13/15, avg $697,308); Pioneerof the Nile (16/19, avg $596,250); Into Mischief (16/23, $487,625); Bernardini (8/13, $465,875); Uncle Mo (19/35, $441,316); and Speightstown (7/10, $417,857). Among first-year covering sires, after Constitution and American Pharoah, the remainder of the top 10 (2+ sold) were: WinStar's Daredevil (More Than Ready, 5/8, avg $184,800); Lane's End's Honor Code (A.P. Indy, 16/24, $167,313); Liam's Map (Unbridled's Song, 14/26, $162,286); and Tonalist (Tapit, 13/21, $123,846). Three Chimneys Farm's Palace Malice (Curlin) had 17/29 sell for an average of $106,059, and also over $80,000 on average were: Spendthrift's Goldencents (5/7, $98,000), the dual GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner from Into Mischief's first crop; Claiborne's Lea (First Samurai, 6/13, $96,667); and WinStar's Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway), who averaged $80,818 for 11 mares selling in foal, from 27 catalogued.