It's Time For Next To Step Up To The Big Leagues

When people discuss Horse of the Year candidates, the name Next (Not This Time) almost never comes up. That's despite what is currently the most impressive winning streak and show of dominance in the sport. He's won eight of his last nine, all of them stakes, by a combined 81 3/4 lengths. On Sunday at Saratoga, he won the Birdstone Stakes, doing so while never appearing to do more than galloping across the track in what amounted to a paid workout.

We haven't seen a horse like this for a long time. His speciality is running in marathon dirt races, where he is so much better than the competition that you get races like the Birdstone, where he paid $2.10 and won by 22 1/4 lengths. Only one other horse even finished the race.

If trainer Doug Cowans and Michael Foster stick to the script, Next will be seen next in the 12-furlong Greenwood Cup on Sept. 21 at Parx. It's a mile-and-a-half dirt race with a $200,000 purse.

You can look at it two ways. The connections have figured out exactly where the horse belongs, in marathons, and that he's made $1,228,361 is a testament to their “ain't-broke-don't-fix-it” mentality. The other school of thought is that the horse is squandering opportunities and limiting his earnings potential by ducking the male dirt races with the biggest purses, all of them run at a mile-and-a-quarter or shorter.

For the first time, Cowans is at least giving some thought to trying shorter, more lucrative races.

“I'm not going to rule out the Jockey Club Gold Cup,” Cowans said. “It would mean coming back in 27 days. It's not normal for me to run any horse back that quick. Especially one that ships that far back and forth. I honestly don't know where this thing is going to go. For now, we'll have to kick than can down the road a little bit.”

It's true that most marathon races include a slow early pace, which fits Next as he seems to able to lope along on or near the lead and keep grinding away while his competition struggles with the demands of the distance.

Should he go next in the Greenwood, he will win, will pay 2.10 or 2.20 and earn $137,500 for his connections. What does he have to gain? The better question is what does he have to lose? He's already “shortened up” once this year to run in the mile-and-three-eights GII Brooklyn Stakes, which he won by 9 1/4. The race for him that jumps off the page is the mile-and-a-quarter GI Jockey Club Gold Cup, which is only one furlong shorter than the Brooklyn. The real distinction between the two races is that the Greenwood winner gets $137,500, while the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup pays out $550,00 to the winner. Should he win the Gold Cup, Next will have earned more in that race alone than he has made in his last four starts combined.

An eighth of a mile shorter or not ,The Jockey Club Gold Cup can't be that different a race than the Brooklyn. In his 2024 Brooklyn win, Next went :49.29 to the half and 1:37.89 to the mile. In the 2023 Jockey Club Gold Cup, the pace was 48.86, 1:38.59. No one's asking him to go a mile. The pace in the Gold Cup should fit his style, where he can keep grinding away until he opens up daylight on his foes.

It makes all the sense in the world. If Next, who is a 6-year-old gelding, comes up short  in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, that would hardly be a step back They would have learned their lesson and go back to Plan A, the marathon races.

But what if he wins? That would mean that a whole new door of opportunity will have opened for him. A Gold Cup win would certainly mean a try in the Breeders' Cup Classic. If everything breaks right, he actually could be Horse of the Year, and they should not be afraid of that challenge.

At any distance, you rarely see horses like this, ones where the pertinent question is not whether they will win but how much will they win by. But there's also something boring about races where you have a superior odds-on favorite sure to beat up on the small collection of horses that will oppose him. We love Next. We don't love races like the Birdstone.

Next is six, still a peek age for a thoroughbred. He ran a 109 Beyer in the Brooklyn, just one point shy of GI Whitney Stakes winner Arthur's Ride (Tapit), who ran a 110 in the Whitney.

Cowans said that if he passes the Jockey Club Gold Cup for the Greenwood, that wouldn't necessarily mean he would duck the Classic.

“I would take on anybody in the country going a mile and a half,” Cowans said. “That's where it's at. I keep telling everybody it would be like taking a good sprinter and then deciding to run him at 4 1/2 furlongs. This isn't about money. It's about enjoying this horse. He looks so unique when he does this. It's eye-catching to watch him run. I'm not in a hurry to make any decisions. I try to weigh out the benefits. At some point this can't keep up because everybody in the marathon races will duck him and they won't be able to fill these races. I like the set up for the Greenwood to the Classic. There's plenty of time between the Greenwood and the Classic. If it were left solely up to me, that's something I'd really have to think about.”

This is the year to test him and find out truly what kind of horse is he. At least try it once. There is absolutely nothing to lose. He's a very good horse who deserves the opportunity to prove just how good he is. What if he can make the grade in shorter races? The connections could be leaving a lot of money on the table, with a lot of big races like the $7 million GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

There's one other scenario. How about trying him on the grass? Those races tend to go at a slower pace than the dirt ones and it would be fascinating to see if Next could do the same to the grass horses what he has done to the dirt horses. The logical spot to try the grass is the Aug. 24 GI Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga. It's a $750,000 race run at a mile-and-a-half on the grass. He is 3-for-7 in his career on the turf and all seven races took place before he made the transformation into a dirt marathon monster.

Cowans and Foster have stuck carefully to a plan and it is working. But even they have to be curious. How would Next do in races like the Gold Cup and the Breeders' Cup Classic or even the Sword Dancer? Do they have a one-track pony who can only win marathon dirt races or do they have a horse worthy of a start in a Jockey Club Gold Cup or even the Breeders' Cup Classic?

It's time to find out.