Handicapping Saturday's Iroquois & Pocahontas at Churchill Downs

TDN's Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack handicaps Saturday's GIII Iroquois Stakes and GIII Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs.

GIII Pocahontas (Race 8) – Pretty Sure (#6) broke her maiden like a filly with a future, making a sustained four-wide rally on the far turn en route to a dominating come-from-behind debut score for Brendan Walsh going six furlongs at Ellis Park Aug. 25. She obviously lacks seasoning and faces a very tough group in this deep renewal of the Pocahontas–headed by deserving favorite Kimchi Cat (#13)–for just her second career start stretching to a one-turn mile, but she should have plenty of pace to close into if she's good enough. Out of 2009 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Beautician (Dehere), the added distance could also play to her advantage in this wide-open affair. Selection: #6 Pretty Sure (12-1).

GIII Iroquois (Race 10) – Magnitude (#8) took a major step forward to graduate impressively in front-running fashion at second asking at Ellis Park July 20 and should offer plenty of value as the road to the Kentucky Derby officially kicks off in this fantastic edition of the Iroquois. The Winchell Thoroughbreds colorbearer gained useful racing experience finishing fourth in his unveiling for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen going 5 1/2 furlongs beneath the Twin Spires June 6, then dominated his eight rivals stretching to seven furlongs while earning a 79 Beyer Speed Figure last time. He's been training smartly since (has a pair of five-furlong bullets at Ellis and Churchill Downs on his worktab in the interim), is drawn well on the outside and is fast enough to secure a tracking trip with plenty of other speed entered in this first try at a mile. Magnitude's sire Not This Time is already responsible for six winners at the top level, including the Asmussen-trained Epicenter and Cogburn. The $310,000 KEENOV weanling turned $450,000 KEESEP yearling was produced by the Bernardini mare Rockadelic, a daughter of MGISW and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Octave (Unbridled's Song). Jonathan's Way (#10) is a very deserving favorite after delivering one of the more impressive maiden victories at Saratoga this summer. Selection: #8 Magnitude (8-1).