Freshman Sires

by Bill Oppenheim
There were a total of 45 North American and European stallions with first foals 2012 (F2012), which had nine or more yearlings sell in their first crops at the 2013 yearling sales, and which now are the 2014 class of freshman sires. Now that the Winter Mixed sales are finishing–Goffs today and tomorrow wraps them up–next up are the 2-year-old sales, kicking off at Barretts early next month, and many of these 45 sires will have their first representatives at the upcoming juvenile sales. Perhaps unusually, perhaps also a sign of the times, 23 of the 45 stand or stood in Europe, as opposed to 22 in North America.
Eight sires, which each had between 39-68 yearlings sell from their first crops last year, registered averages above $80,000. Of those eight, five stand in Kentucky, two in Ireland, and one in Great Britain. There's no Sea the Stars or Frankel in the sire crop (in fact, there are probably a smaller number of sires with first foals 2011 and 2012 than has been the case for many years), but there was still a clear leader on yearling average: Claiborne Farm's Blame (Arch), whose 39 yearlings (fewest of the eight $80,000+-average sires) averaged $183,666. Even more impressive, his median was $170,000–93% of the average, indicating a very high uniform standard of individual. The only other NA/EU F2012 sire with a six-figure median was Taylor Made's Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway), whose median for 47 sold was an even $100,000.
Trained by Al Stall, Jr., Blame finished his 3-year-old year by defeating older horses in two nine-furlong Grade II's in Kentucky, the Fayette H. at Keeneland and the Clark H. at Churchill. His only defeat in five starts at four was when second to all-the-way winner Haynesfield (Speightstown) in the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup, but payday came when Blame held off Zenyatta in the 2010 GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs (Beyer 111) for his third Grade I win that year. That may not have endeared him to Zenyatta's legion of racetrack fans, but Blame has been popular with breeders all the way so far, including with Europeans, as Blame's sire Arch has always had a good record, and been popular, in Europe.
The 2010 GI Kentucky Derby involved three other horses who will have their first 2-year-olds racing this year and were among the five in North America which also averaged over $80,000 with their first crops of yearlings in 2013. Eskendereya was the Derby favorite after winning the GII Fountain of Youth by 8 1/2 lengths and the GI Wood Memorial (Beyer 109) by nearly 10, but he was injured the week before the Derby and retired the week after. It looked significant that, given his hefty number of 47 sold, the market carried him to a clear second-best among 2013 yearling sale debutants, with an average of $129,659 (all sale data from TDN's Instatistics tables). His $100,000 median was a healthy 77% of his average, considering the high number sold, too.
WinStar's Super Saver (Maria's Mon) won the 2010 GI Kentucky Derby in Eskendereya's absence, and this was the same race in which Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike) was nearly put into the inside rail, as I described in my column a couple of weeks ago (click here) in the context of Smart Strike as a sire of sires. Of the five NA/EU sires which averaged over $80,000, Super Saver, at $20,000, was the only one who went to stud for under $30,000, so the fact that he had no fewer than 65 yearlings average $100,803–over five times his entering stud fee–is very impressive. His median was $80,000, also–79% of his average–and again, with so many selling, it tells you there were a lot of good-looking yearlings by Super Saver in the marketplace last year.
As we detailed a couple of weeks ago, Coolmore's Lookin at Lucky bounced back to win his next three, including the GI Preakness, the GI Haskell (Beyer 106), and the GII Indiana Derby before running fourth, from the 12 hole, to Blame and Zenyatta in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic. But he did add the 3-year-old championship to his 2-year-old Eclipse of 2009, when he was undefeated except for being beaten a head from the 13 hole in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. A winner of five Grade I races in all, 64 yearlings by Lookin at Lucky averaged $86,826 last year. His median of $67,500 was 78% of his average.
Lane's End's Quality Road (Elusive Quality) had his quirks–he refused to load in the 2009 GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita, won by Zenyatta over Gio Ponti–but he was immensely talented. He ran big figures to win the GII Fountain of Youth (Beyer 113) and GI Florida Derby (Beyer 111) at three, and at four he won three more Grade I's, including the Donn H. in an off-the-graph Beyer 121 and the Met Mile. In fact, he was the big 1-2 favorite when Blame got up to beat him by a head in the 2010 GI Whitney at Saratoga. The beneficiary of a lot of the late Ned Evans' good mares in his first crop, Quality Road finished third among North American F2012 sires on 2013 yearling average, with 68 yearlings averaging $109,735.
Three European sires also averaged the equivalent of over $80,000. Coolmore's Rip Van Winkle, who is by Galileo, but not out of a Danehill mare, won three Group 1's at a mile and 10 furlongs, and ran second in four others, including to Sea the Stars in the G1 Eclipse S. when both were 3-year-olds. His first foals in 2012 impressed the judges, 28 weanlings averaging the equivalent of $87,327, with a median of $73,687–84% of his average. 'Rip' was the leading European F2012 sire by yearling average last year, with 64 yearlings averaging $114,137. Also over six figures on average was Tweenhills' Makfi, the horse who was just about the first to put his sire Dubawi–and his trainer Mikel Delzangles–on the map, when he scored a 33-1 upset in the 2010 G1 English 2000 Guineas. He went on to prove this was no fluke when defeating Goldikova later that year in the G1 Jacques le Marois, and in fact his only two defeats in six career starts (all at three) came at Ascot, which he clearly didn't like. Makfi made more headlines when Qatari Sheikh Fahd Al Thani outbid a French syndicate to stand him at stud. Makfi averaged $108,670 with 54 yearlings sold last year.
The third European F2012 sire to average over $80,000 is Ballylinch's Lope de Vega, who emulated his sire Shamardal by scoring the French Classic double of the one-mile G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) and the G1 Prix du Jockey-Club–the 'new,' 2100-meter French Derby. Lope de Vega also had 54 yearlings sell, which averaged $83,565.
Eight more sires averaged between $50,000- $75,000, four on each side of the Atlantic, with three of the four on each side being either very good 2-year-olds or sprinters. In North America, Darley's Desert Party (Street Cry), a $2.1-million 2-year-old who won the 2008 GII Sanford S. at Saratoga, has been 'shuttling' between Kentucky and Sequel Stallions in New York. He had 37 yearlings average $72,789, including a $460,000 filly who topped the Fasig July sale. Airdrie'sMajesticperfection, by Into Mischief's sire Harlan's Holiday, was a complete rocket himself, winning five of his six starts (all at four), including the Iowa Sprint H. (Beyer 117) and the GI A.G. Vanderbilt (Beyer 115), in which he defeated subsequent GI Breeders' Cup Sprint winner and Eclipse champion Big Drama by nearly three lengths. A total of 44 yearlings from his first crop averaged $64,443.
Just behind him was Spendthrift's Warrior's Reward (Medaglia d'Oro), winner of the 2010 GI Carter H. He had 66 yearlings average $63,711. Darby Dan's Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat) won the GII Futurity at two, and the GI Wood Memorial (nine furlongs) and the GI Cigar Mile at three, in 2008. The 38 yearlings from his first crop averaged $58,000 even.
In Europe: Coolmore's Starspangledbanner, an Australian-bred by Choisir who was a dual Group 1 winner 'down under,' was bought by Coolmore and came to Europe where he scored the notable six-furlong double of the G1 Golden Jubilee and G1 July Cup in 2010. He had 18 yearlings from his first and only crop average the equivalent of $64,845, but sadly he developed fertility problems and was retired from covering.
Derrinstown's Arcano (Green Desert) was bought in training for Shadwell's Sheikh Hamdan and won the G1 Prix Morny for him on his next start, but didn't win again. However, his first foals sold well in 2012, and he followed it up last year when 53 yearlings from his first crop averaged $61,095. Britain's Newsells Park's Equiano, by Acclamation, won the five-furlong G1 King's Stand S. at Royal Ascot twice, so he was a serious speedball. The buyers liked his stock, too, as 66 yearlings from his first crop averaged $58,010. Also over the 'half-a-hundred' mark was Highclere's Paco Boy (Desert Style), a Group 1 winner at three (seven furlongs), four, and five (one mile). He had 60 yearlings average $52,997.
And that's not all, not by a long way. There were 29 other sires with nine or more yearlings sell from their first crops last year. History tells us between a third and 40% of top sires are horses who go to stud for $15,000 or less, so there are plenty more among this sire class with chances to make sires. There are 13 more, in fact, with 2013 yearling averages between $40,000-$50,000. Beginning with the 2-year-old sales next month, and then the 2-year-old racing which is not many more months away, we'll start to see which of the candidates look like making the grade. Click here for list of freshman sires with 9+ yearlings sold.