Derby Candidates

by Bill Oppenheim

Pending the outcome of this weekend's final Classic preps, the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and the GI Blue Grass S., due to be run for the last time on the synthetic Polytrack surface at Keeneland, there are likely to be three contenders vying for favoritism in the GI Kentucky Derby in 3 1/2 weeks' time at Churchill Downs. From the West Coast we have California Chrome, dominating winner of the GII San Felipe S. (Beyer 108) and GI Santa Anita Derby (Beyer 107) but by the somewhat unlikely Kentucky Derby sire Lucky Pulpit. From New York we have Wicked Strong (Hard Spun), a 'non-winner of one other than' allowance winner before sweeping to victory in last Saturday's GI Wood Memorial (Beyer 104); and from Florida we have the unbeaten Constitution, by the leading American sire in the first quarter of 2014, Tapit, trained by Todd Pletcher, and 3-for-3 after a narrow win in the GI Florida Derby (Beyer 99) Mar. 29.

Constitution has the right sire and the right connections, but has to defy the statistic that no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old since 1882. Curlin couldn't do it. Bodemeister couldn't do it. In a 20-horse field, seasoning seems to be a big plus. Nonetheless, an unbeaten Florida Derby winner comes to the party with pretty strong credentials. On the speed figures and the form book, California Chrome should be the favorite, which means at anything higher than 4-1–like I'll Have Another coming off a GI Santa Anita Derby win two years ago–he could be an overlay. Seasoning shouldn't be an issue–the Santa Anita Derby was his 10th start– but of course luck of the draw, luck in running, and staying the trip, as always, will be.

So how unlikely a sire of a Kentucky Derby winner is Lucky Pulpit, who stood this season for $2,500 at Harris Farms in California? He ran 22 times over four seasons, and was basically a grass horse. His only stakes win came over 5 furlongs on the grass in the Smile S. at Arlington Park as a 4-year-old in 2005. Five of his other six stakes placings came on the grass, including a graded placing at a mile at two, and he also ran second at 8 1/2 furlongs on the dirt in the 2004
GII Santa Catalina S. as a 3-year-old. Winning a 5-furlong stakes on the grass may be an unlikely profile for a Derby-winning sire, but once he went to stud, the picture did start to change a little bit. His first crop (2008) included a colt called Luckarack, who has now made over $534,000, and his second crop included Rousing Sermon, a winner of $710,000 and a respectable eighth for Jerry Hollendorfer in I'll Have Another's Derby. According to the 2014 California Stallion Directory, he had 99 foals in his first four crops, so the fact that three of them have now made over $500,000–well, that reads pretty well. At the end of 2013, Lucky Pulpit's APEX A Runner Index (ARI) was a pretty impressive 2.89. He won't be standing for $2,500 in 2015.

A homebred for owners Steve Coburn and Martin Perry, California Chrome himself has a pretty interesting pedigree wrinkle, too, in that his dam, the minor winner Love the Chase, is by Not For Love out of a Polish Numbers mare, meaning she is inbred 3×3 to Numbered Account–hybrid vigor. The next dam is by Sir Ivor, the next by Vaguely Noble, so there's no guarantee he won't stay, and as he won the Santa Anita Derby with a Beyer 107, geared down, no less, he just might be one of those nine-furlong stars who gets that final furlong at Churchill Downs. As he's trained at Los Alamitos by Art Sherman, who rode on the train with Swaps when that great star won the 1955 Derby, the human connections are a great story, too. As of today California Chrome gets my vote.

Opinion is divided on how 'wicked strong' the Wood form will turn out to be. His Beyer 104 would be good enough at 10 furlongs to have won four of the last five Derbies. He certainly finished in the Wood like he'll relish the extra furlong, but did the race rather set up for him? In his favor, Darley sent Street Sense to Japan last year and after three months of 2013, it was obvious he'd be coming back to Kentucky. Wicked Strong's sire, Hard Spun, is spending 2014 in Japan, and if a Wood winner isn't enough to guarantee his return, a Derby winner certainly would be. Not that I'm superstitious like everybody else in this business; that scenario comes more under the heading of 'irony'. If California Chrome doesn't stay that 10th furlong, and if Constitution can't overcome the no-racing-at-two statistic, Wicked Strong, a $375,000 Keeneland September yearling owned by long-time successful syndicate group Centennial Farms and trained by James Jerkens, could easily be the Derby winner.

The only knock against GI Florida Derby winner Constitution is that he didn't make his debut until Jan. 11. A $400,000 Saratoga yearling owned by Twin Creeks Racing and WinStar and trained by Todd Pletcher, he was well-advertised for his debut and blew the start as the even-money favorite in the seven-furlong heat, but still got up to win by a length going away. The judges were impressed. He came back Feb. 22 and led all the way to win a key 1 1/16-mile allowance race on the GII Fountain of Youth undercard, with Tonalist (Tapit) second, Mexikoma (Birdstone) third and Wicked Strong fourth. Constitution won his race in 1:42; Wildcat Red (Wildcat Heir) held off General A Rod (Roman Ruler), with Top Billing (Curlin) a fast-closing third, in the Fountain of Youth, in 1:41:4/5. The Fountain of Youth form was upheld in the Florida Derby. Constitution did get a dream run on the rail and didn't win by much, with Wildcat Red and General A Rod two-three, and GII Holy Bull winner and hot Florida Derby favorite Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile) a disappointing fourth. What did impress me a lot though was that Constitution is still learning, got valuable experience in a fight without having too hard a race, and is likely still improving. That Beyer 99 goes down in my book as a 99+. I can easily see Constitution running a 104 at 10 furlongs next time out. Oh, and he's one of seven graded stakes winners already this year by his 2014 leading North American sire. Wouldn't that be fitting, for Tapit to sire the Derby winner?

Again, pending the outcomes this weekend, the current fourth choice for the Derby would be Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday), a $300,000 Keeneland September yearling trained by Bob Baffert for Mike Pegram and pals. Coming off a win in the GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Park, Hoppertunity did stay on well to be a clear second to California Chrome last Saturday. He'll for sure be the 'wise guy' horse for the Derby, as it looked on Saturday like he'll get the trip in Louisville. Hoppertunity would have been the favorite for Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby off his Rebel win, but instead Baffert is sending TDN Rising Star Bayern, an Offlee Wild colt from Helen Alexander's famed Courtly Dee family who won a Santa Anita allowance race by 10 lengths (Beyer 98) last time out, Feb. 13.

Rapidly improving 3-year-olds which get the distance and have a clean trip win a lot of Kentucky Derbies. There's a handful of rapidly improving 3-year-olds now who just might get the trip, and a very legitimate supporting cast comprising plenty of candidates with good claims to be in the race. The composition of the field should be more or less set after this weekend. (Click here for a list of top Derby contenders with last two Beyers)

Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.