Improbable (City Zip) justified his 3-5 odds and the hype that has been surrounding him since before his debut with a dominant victory in the Street Sense S. at Churchill Downs, earning the 'TDN Rising Star' nod in the process. A neck winner as the heavy favorite in his six-panel debut at Santa Anita Sept. 29, the $200,000 KEESEP buy got off to a slow beginning, but was quite eager once getting his hooves beneath him, rushing up between horses to sit in mid-pack through sharp early splits of :22.27 and :44.96. Finally able to be tipped out on the backstretch, the flashy chestnut ran much more comfortably, gliding up to take command from Trophy Chaser (Twirling Candy) at the top of the lane. It was all over from there as Improbable effortlessly sailed clear under Drayden Van Dyke to win for fun.
“I think he's a pretty exciting horse,” said Jimmy Barnes, assistant to Bob Baffert. “He showed some talent in his debut and trained really well out in California. Hopefully this kick starts a fun weekend.”
“I knew I'd be just behind some of the early pace setters,” Van Dyke said. “I tracked the one that I thought was the better and when the hole opened up right after we passed the big board I moved him outside. He was very professional throughout the entire race.”
Improbable is the first foal to make the races out of Rare Event (A.P. Indy), who was purchased by Calumet Farm for $150,000 at the 2016 Keeneland November Sale after producing the winner. She was in foal to Quality Road at the time of that sale and the resulting filly was purchased by WinStar for $180,000 at the recent Keeneland September Sale. Rare Event produced an Oxbow colt Mar. 4 of this year and was bred back to Cross Traffic. Improbable hails from the family of Grade I-winning sire Hard Spun (Danzig).
STREET SENSE S., $100,000, Churchill Downs, 11-2, 2yo, 1m, 1:35.61, ft.
1–IMPROBABLE, 122, c, 2, by City Zip
1st Dam: Rare Event, by A.P. Indy
2nd Dam: Our Rite of Spring, by Stravinsky
3rd Dam: Turkish Tryst, by Turkoman
($110,000 Wlg '16 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg '17 KEESEP).
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN. O-WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club and SF Racing LLC; B-St. George Farm LLC & G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY); T-Bob Baffert; J-Drayden Van Dyke. $59,520. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $89,520.
2–Trophy Chaser, 122, c, 2, Twirling Candy–European Union, by Successful Appeal. ($35,000 Wlg '16 KEENOV; $55,000 RNA Ylg '17 KEESEP; $42,000 2yo '18 OBSMAR). O/T-Juan Carlos Avila; B-Overbrook Farm & Kildare Stud (KY). $19,200.
3–Distant Shore, 122, c, 2, Algorithms–Glimpse, by Touch Gold. ($70,000 Ylg '17 EASOCT; $70,000 RNA 2yo '18 FTFMAR; $50,000 2yo '18 EASMAY). O-Churchill Downs Racing Club; B-Charles McGinnes (MD); T-Thomas M. Amoss. $9,600.
Margins: 7 1/4, 1 1/4, HD. Odds: 0.90, 3.00, 14.70.
Also Ran: Manny Wah, Marquee Prince, Louder Than Bombs, Moonster, Reward the Miracle, Unionizer.
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