By Alan Carasso
Despite never having raced on the dirt in his two seasons at the races, Mrs John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith's champion and 'TDN Rising Star' City of Troy (Justify) was assigned gate three as the 5-2 morning-line selection in a full field of 14 and will be ridden by Ryan Moore in Saturday's $7-million GI Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar.
Deemed by trainer Aidan O'Brien–a two-time runner-up in the Classic (Giant's Causeway, Declaration of War)–'the best he's ever trained,' the son of G1SW Together Forever (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) was well-beaten on seasonal debut in the G1 English 2000 Guineas in May, but has been untouchable since, with victories in the G1 Betfred Derby, the G1 Coral Eclipse Stakes at Sandown and G1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York. He was given a hit-out over the all-weather at Southwell last month, sitting in behind stablemates before inhaling them and striding clear with confident strides beneath Moore.
The obstacles are not insignificant for City of Troy, as the kickback could prove a serious hindrance should he not leave running from the low draw. He could be ridden in such a way as to mitigate that factor, and a victory would prove his trainer prescient in his assessment.
'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light) looks to become the first horse to complete the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile/Classic double and the Todd Pletcher trainee will depart barrier nine as the 3-1 morning-line second choice with John Velazquez.
Brilliant winner of the GI Curlin Florida Derby, he was well-beaten in the GI Kentucky Derby, and connections subsequently fought any urge to contest the final two legs of the Triple Crown. Instead, he returned with a battling victory over fellow 'Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) in the GII Jim Dandy Stakes and followed suit with a narrow success over Distaff favorite and 'Rising Star' Thorpedo Anna (Fast Anna) in the GI Travers Stakes when last seen Aug. 24. Sierra Leone, winner of the GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in April, is a 12-1 chance from gate 12.
Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}), a bang-up third in the GI Kentucky Derby, most recently overcame the one hole to win the Listed Japan Dirt Classic at Ohi outside of Tokyo Oct. 2 and will have to do the same if he is to add the Classic. The G2 UAE Derby and G3 Saudi Derby hero will be partnered by his regular jockey Ryusei Sakai and starts at a relatively generous opening quote of 6-1.
The son of US Grade III winner Forever Darling (Congrats) is joined by his compatriots Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), the 2023 Classic runner-up, and Ushba Tesoro (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}).
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'Anna' Can Cement HOTY Case in the Distaff
No female has finished ahead of 'TDN Rising Star' Thorpedo Anna (Fast Anna) in 2024, and the Ken McPeek trainee is the only odds-on favorite across Breeders' Cup weekend, having been made the 4-5 chalk from gate two in the GI Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff.
The champion 3-year-old filly elect has dominated her peers this term, winning no fewer than four Grade I events, and her lone defeat–which resulted in her highest Beyer Speed Figure (111)–came when narrowly runner-up to Fierceness in the Travers. She was forced to overcome adversity when just scraping home in the GI Cotillion Stakes six weeks ago, and she'll likely need to produce her second-strongest effort of the year at the back end of the season to add the Distaff and–possibly–a Horse of the Year statue.
Chad Brown has never won the Distaff and sends out 7-2 Raging Sea (Curlin) for Jon Clay's Alpha Delta Stable, while Japan's Awesome Result (Justify) looks to protect her undefeated record from gate nine in the field of 10. Yutaka Take has the ride.
Is Rebel's Romance A Vulnerable Favorite in Turf?
Godolphin's globetrotting Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) will start from the 11 hole in a field of 13 in the $5-million GI Longines Breeders' Cup Turf as he looks to join fellow European-breds Conduit (Ire) and High Chaparral (Ire) as two-time winners of the 12-furlong contest.
As he did when he took out the 2022 Turf at Keeneland at odds just shy of 6-1, the homebred prepped with a victory in the G1 Preis von Europa at Cologne in Germany, but it has been a long season, with victories in Qatar, Dubai and Hong Kong as well and 5-2 might be too skinny a price to swallow on a horse that's been constantly on the go, not to mention an awkward draw.
While the Euros occupy the top three spots on the morning line, America's best chance appears to lie with LSU Stable's Far Bridge, whose sire English Channel won the 2007 Turf at Monmouth Park. Winner in succession of the GI Sword Dancer Invitational Stakes and GI Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, the 4-year-old jumps from gate six with Joel Rosario and was accorded a 6-1 chance on the line.
Cogburn Can Complete Unbeaten Year in Turf Sprint
No horse in this country has been as consistently fast as Cogburn (Not This Time) and the 5-year-old can put an exclamation point on a perfect season in the GI Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.
Trained by Steve Asmussen, who sent out Regally Ready (More Than Ready) to win the 2011 Turf Sprint, the bay has won each of his three starts by convincing margins within the context of turf sprinting, and captured the GI Jaipur Stakes in the time of :59.80 for 5 1/2 furlongs, good for a 114 Beyer. Anything approaching an effort like that will see the 7-5 favorite take his grass record to seven wins from eight tries.
In broad terms, European turf sprinters take turns beating one another in the continent's major Group 1 events, but 'TDN Rising Star' Bradsell (GB) (Tasleet {GB}) has truly distinguished himself this term, with three victories from four starts. That stretch includes a 3/4-length defeat of the reopposing Believing (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}) with 139 pounds on his back in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York in August and he added the G1 Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh 23 days later. The 4-year-old exits a troubled runner-up effort in the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye at ParisLongchamp Oct. 6.
Also in the field is Big Evs (Ire) (Blue Point {Ire}), who took last year's Juvenile Turf Sprint up at Santa Anita.
Godolphin Runners Live In Juvenile Dirt Races
Horses owned and bred by Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin figure difficult to beat in the GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile and GI NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, the two dirt races on 'Future Stars Friday.'
'TDN Rising Star' East Avenue (Medaglia d'Oro) could not have been more impressive in besting fellow 'Rising Star' Ferocious (Flatter) by better than five lengths in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland Oct. 5 and was made the 5-2 pick in the Juvenile. The homebred will be ridden for speed from gate one by Tyler Gaffalione, while 'Rising Star' Chancer McPatrick (McKinzie), the 3-1 second choice, is likely to go back and save his best for last from gate 10. Trainer Chad Brown won the 2017 Juvenile at Del Mar with Good Magic.
Immersive (Nyquist) returned better than 12-1 when landing the GI Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga Aug. 31, but was the 1.67-1 chalk when besting Quickick (McKinzie) by 1 1/4 lengths in the GI Darley Alcibiades Stakes in Lexington on Oct. 4. The bay is the 3-1 second favorite on the morning line behind Scottish Lassie (McKinzie), who opened plenty of eyes when romping home in the Oct. 5 GI Frizette Stakes at Aqueduct. The latter is the 5-2 favorite from barrier 10, one spot to the outside of undefeated Japanese raider American Bikini (Jpn) (American Pharoah). The half-sister to GISW Paris Lights (Curlin) is a 5-1 gamble with Ryan Moore in the saddle.
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