Breeding Digest: Time For His Next Trick

Whatever Next? It's as big a question for the throwback gelding of that name as for his sire, both standing at an exciting crossroads in their respective careers.

Next's domination of a niche division of the American Turf is now such that he may now try to adapt to a more competitive, mainstream discipline at the Breeders' Cup. But whether this switch concerns distance or surface, in the Classic or Turf respectively, nobody should be surprised if the gray proves equal to the challenge.

For his sire Not This Time has quickly established himself as a conduit not only for the class of Giant's Causeway, but also for his versatility. Since the rise of Up to the Mark and Cogburn, I've heard some people pigeonholing Not This Time as primarily a turf influence, but that just shows how culpably prescriptive we tend to be. This, remember, is the horse that gave us a sophomore dirt champion, Epicenter, whose second to fourth dams were by 2,000 Guineas winner King Of Kings and two European sloggers of the old school in Ela-Mana-Mou (Ire) and Busted (GB). And, even on turf, just look at the standouts just cited: a record-breaking sprinter, and a horse thwarted only by the Epsom Derby winner over 12 furlongs at Santa Anita last fall. In other words, the only limits to Not This Time are those on our own imagination.

Giant's Causeway was one of many Storm Cats that adapted their trademark dirt of toughness and speed to the European theater. Quitting the grass only for his final start, he famously ran the dirt monster Tiznow to a neck. At the other end of his career, on debut, he had won a sprint maiden on fast going by seven lengths. Basically he handled anything you threw at him.

Not This Time's own career was cut vexingly short, leaving us wondering wistfully how he might have dovetailed the speed of his Tartan Farm family (inbred to Ta Wee) with the Classic flavors brought to Storm Cat by the dam of Giant's Causeway. (Mariah's Storm was by a son of Blushing Groom (Fr) out of a Roberto mare.) But it feels safe to assume that he would have kept progressing with maturity, just like his half-brother Liam's Map–whose daughter Roses For Debra, incidentally, has just won a first Grade II at the age of five.

Not This Time | Sarah Andrew

Sure enough, whatever credit must go to Doug Cowans since making that celebrated $62,500 claim in April 2022, Next's latest lap of honor–his second GIII Greenwood Cup, by an aggregate 35 lengths–showed a 6-year-old Thoroughbred in his absolute pomp.

Next, indeed, is a member of Not This Time's very first crop. The Taylor Made stallion's rise since has been so stratospheric that we have to remind ourselves that his present yearlings were still conceived only at $45,000. Given that they already include a $3.4 million Saratoga sale-topper, the mind boggles at what Not This Time may yet achieve: he's still only 10, after all, and in principle will benefit from a steep elevation in mare quality after his fee was hiked to $135,000 last year and $150,000 this time round.

It doesn't always work out that way, of course. The fact is that Not This Time's five leading earners this year include three members of his debut crop–besides Next himself, GII Shakertown Stakes winner Arzak and dual stakes winner Dana's Beauty–as well as Cogburn from his second. You could argue that they are simply keeping his name in lights, pending the advent of the stock delivered by his upgraded mares. On the other hand, some people believe that the unusual prepotency of certain stallions is such that they supply all the key genetic machinery, more or less passively hosted by mares whose own caliber duly becomes pretty incidental.

Even if that were true, of course, Not This Time would still continue to produce elite runners. It would simply mean that breeders have to pay more for access similar outcomes. As it is, his current juveniles already include a G2 Norfolk Stakes winner at Royal Ascot, with less precocious peers lurking in top barns coast to coast.

But if we meanwhile revert to the conventional position, and also allow the mare her contribution, we can at least ask whether the dam of Next can offer his connections any help in their decision.

Next sadly appears to be the last foal of Bahia Beach, whose sire Awesome Again is one of several sons of Deputy Minister to emulate his distaff influence. She was bought from breeders Adena Springs by Silverton Hill as a $115,000 2-year-old, and won four times besides placing in three stakes, operating chiefly in dirt sprints.

Bahia Beach is out of an Alphabet Soup half-sister to Spring Waltz (Silver Charm), winner of the GII Rampart Handicap, as well as Winning Rhythm, a daughter of Giant's Causeway whose podium in the GII Santa Ana Stakes perhaps helped to identify Not This Time as a suitable mate.

Cogburn | Sarah Andrew

The next dam Relaxing Rhythm (Easy Goer) won her first eight starts, climaxing in the GII Molly Pitcher Handicap, only to derail on her ninth. She was out of Regal Gal (Viceregal), one of four graded stakes scorers produced by Impetuous Lady (Hasty Road). The best of those siblings was probably Impetuous Gal (Briartic), a Grade II winner and dam of three-time Grade I scorer Banker's Gold (Nijinsky) alongside several good producers.

Their dam drew on plenty of grass influences, notably through an Argentinian mother, and Regal Gal duly got her graded score (GIII Columbiana Handicap) on “the weeds.” Regal Gal proved very fertile herself, besides Relaxing Rhythm producing two other graded stakes winners in Holy Mountain (Devil's Bag) and Malagra (Majestic Light). Albeit the former was another turf performer, the latter represents a very different brand having won the Count Fleet Handicap in 1:08.8.

Given that Next was conceived at $15,000, you unsurprisingly have to delve fairly deep for quality in his family. There's a good dose of chlorophyll there, if you do, but it's pretty remote by this stage. While a granddam by a son of the splendidly flexible Cozzene might assist, more recent evidence is ambivalent. Bahia Beach's two other foals include a modest winner on all three surfaces, albeit by the strong turf influence English Channel. But her half-sister by Macho Uno had also produced a talented foal by Not This Time, Cara's Time, winner of a 7f juvenile stakes on dirt at Aqueduct this time last year, and an allowance winner of another dirt sprint there this summer.

Back in the mists of time, of course, Next broke his maiden on turf, on which surface he also won a mile stakes. Really we have to leave the Next move to Not This Time. Personally, I feel that the American Thoroughbred retains capacities we never allow it to explore. Next will introduce a joyous ingredient of adventure to the Breeders' Cup, if hardly an outrageous one if you go back a couple of generations.

Just take this snapshot of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, when still run over two miles. Eleven days after Kelso won it for a fifth time, in 1964, he broke the world record for 12 furlongs on turf in the Washington International. A couple of years later, Buckpasser won the Malibu over seven on his next start! And the year after that, Damascus tried to emulate them both, beaten a nose by Fort Marcy at Laurel before winning the Malibu.

Remembering those horses, the modern aversion to risk and experiment feels beyond embarrassing. In contrast, Next will be making a fairly marginal switch of lane. But he will certainly carry our ardent support.

Seizing the Moment

Having previously explored the expertly curated family that produced Seize the Grey, we will instead use his return to form in the GI Pennsylvania Derby as one of the last remaining opportunities to salute his sire. For Arrogate's final crop also includes Dragoon Guard, who missed second at Parx only by a head.

Seize the Grey | Sarah Andrew

Apart from anything else, the late Juddmonte stallion's example should fortify anyone discouraged by the slow starts made by one or two freshmen this year. Arrogate's first winner did not come until Sept. 6, right at the end of the 2021 Saratoga meet, aptly through a filly named Adversity. Within the hour, he had a second winner at Monmouth, and his run of posthumous success has since been relentless.

Arrogate's abrupt and devastating loss the previous year, aged just seven, left us just three crops–each of which contained a Classic winner, including two colts. Arcangelo is already at stud, and Seize the Grey himself has a berth reserved at Gainesway. His Parx success will evidently activate a lucrative clause in that deal and, as Saturday was arguably his best number yet, all parties are entitled to renewed hope that a still bigger bonus could be triggered at the Breeders' Cup. After all, Seize the Grey's promising young trainer is said to be adept at pushing his horses through the kind of flat spots he endured this summer into fresh cycles of improvement…

Interesting to see that Charge It will also be joining the Gainesway roster, joining his venerable sire. Antony Beck and his team are clearly determined to meet the challenge awaiting when Tapit is no longer presiding over their stallion barn. On his day Charge It looked a special talent, notably when giving a 23-length impersonation of Next in the GIII Dwyer Stakes, and he's a grandson of Take Charge Lady (Dehere).

Among the young guns at Gainesway, the early signs for McKinzie look promising. Entering the fall sales circuit, he heads the second-crop charts at an average $165,708 and median $130,000, followed by Vekoma ($159,312/$120,000–from an amazing 47 sold of 50 into the ring) and Complexity ($117,426/$60,000). It is proving tougher going for Authentic ($117,340/$77,500), at least relative to his higher fee–but just remember that he's made a much better start than Arrogate!

Also rooting for Seize the Grey, meanwhile, will be the team that gave $500,000 for an Oscar Performance filly out of his granddam Shop Again (Wild Again)–her final foal–from the Mill Ridge consignment at Saratoga last month. Whatever she can add to her aristocratic page on the racetrack, she will surely pay her way in the excellent program she has joined through purchaser Cindy Heider.

Lady Shelia's Triumphs

What an exciting Sunday for Sheila Rosenblum, whose Lady Sheila Stable has a stake in both the Saratoga debut winners that blew away stakes competition at Aqueduct on Sunday: the colt Sacrosanct (Honest Mischief) by 12 lengths, and the filly With the Angels (Omaha Beach) by just about 10.

With the Angels | Sarah Andrew

With the Angels, who had won her maiden by a similarly extravagant margin and earned a 'TDN Rising Star' badge, represents a fifth generation cultivated by the late Alfred DiRico, stalwart of the Maryland Turf, and his family.

Her dam Sister Margaret (Pulpit), who won of three of her first four starts, was out of the admirable Dance Gal Dance. A daughter of DiRico's own stallion, Disco Rico, Dance Gal Dance won five of her eight starts (including four stakes) and was second in the other three. Her siblings include the dam of the indefatigable Dr. Blarney (Dublin), who has banked over $750,000 in a 27-for-45 career and appears to be back breezing at Finger Lakes at the age of 11!

The emergence of With the Angels contributes to recent consolidation by Omaha Beach, who bestrides the second-crop table with eight black-type scorers this year.

Sacrosanct, meanwhile, is from the first crop of Honest Mischief. It has been quite a week for the Sequel New York stallion, who had previously been dining out only on this colt's debut success. He had a maiden winner at Aqueduct on Friday, a first black-type score through Sacrosanct on Sunday, and then the first two in a state-bred stakes at Finger Lakes on Monday. While obviously a commercial proposition, as a stakes-winning sprinter by Into Mischief, Honest Mischief is also a grandson of the great Toussaud. You wouldn't mind keeping one of his daughters.

Ned Toffey, Manager of the Year

Finally may I add to the many congratulations Ned Toffey will be receiving from the Bluegrass community as Ted Bates Farm Manager of the Year.

Ned Toffey | Spendthrift Farm

This KTFMC award is surely as meaningful a distinction as can be earned in our business. And even Toffey, a man of stubborn modesty and self-effacement, must allow himself some pride in the esteem it demonstrates among his peers.

We all know that the man who hired Toffey to run Spendthrift, the late B. Wayne Hughes, challenged rival farms in a way some of them found deeply uncomfortable. But however determined to rock the boat himself, Hughes could not have made an appointment better calculated to maintain diplomacy and respect in the farm's day-to-day interactions with the rest of the industry.

Achieving that balance confirms Ned to have the judgement and intelligence that would have made him just as successful in many other walks of life. As it is, however much we individually admire or resent the business model developed by Hughes, we can all be grateful that Ned ended up in our midst.

He gives generously of his time and expertise to numerous bodies serving the collective interest of our industry, while also a devoted family man. We duly thank Katie (and their four children) for “sharing” him with our community during their 32 years together so far.

I'm not quite sure what it would do to the industry if every single farm tried to turn itself into a Spendthrift! But a Ned Toffey in every office would be all to the good.