Bill Oppenheim: The Age Angle

In the final of our series mining the year-end 2015 APEX data (covering seven years of racing, 2009-2015) we're looking at the age indexes. These are produced for us, as is all the APEX data we use in TDN, by The Jockey Club Information Systems (TJCIS). One of the features of the APEX calculations are age indexes, in which a sire's ABC Runners at discrete ages (2-year-olds; 3-year-olds; 4-year-olds; and 5-year-olds and up) are indexed against the collective records for all APEX sires. Today we look at age indexes for the leading North American and European sires, for 2-year-olds, 3-year-olds, and 4-year-olds, among 620 sires with 80 or more year-starters 2009-2015. This should tell us something about the aptitudes of various stallions at various ages. Click here for the alphabetical list of the 620 sires, and click here for the leading NA/EU sires by 5-year-old and up ABC Index; we don't analyze that list in detail because we've found over the years the leaders are invariably sires who have just finished doing well with their first crop of 5-year-olds.

One other thing to keep in mind is that the indexes for 3-year-olds and 4-year-olds are gathered from a considerably higher number of runners than are the indexes for 2-year-olds, and for 5-year-olds and up. This is because only about 40% of the horses in a foal crop which eventually start will run at two, and similarly a significantly smaller percentage run as 5-year-olds or older, mostly due to attrition. Consequently the range in the indexes for 2-year-olds and for 5-year-olds and up tends to be wider (with higher tops) than those for 3-year-olds and 4-year-olds, and the rankings in those cases may be just as important as the index.

There's no doubt that age indexes can be very helpful in assessing a sire's aptitudes. Giant's Causeway is a classic example. His overall ABC Index is 1.92, but his numbers improve with age: 1.47 (2yo) – 1.75 (3yo) – 1.79 (4yo) – 2.61 (5yo+); the older the better for him. Conversely, Exchange Rate has an overall ABC Index of 1.34, but his runners were generally better earlier: 1.88 (2yo) – 1.43 (3yo) – 1.08 (4yo) – 1.02 (5yo+). Even though the 2-year-old and 5-year-old-plus indexes have a wider range, when looking at an individual sire you can get a good idea at what ages his runners are best.

The 2-year-old index may well tell us which sires have the “quickest return on investment” or are the “fastest-moving stud fee going up,” but for identifying the best sires, there's no doubt 3-year-old form is the best, so let's look at that group first, and here once again Niigon (2.90), the Ontario son of Unbridled who died almost before he had any runners and is the leading NA-EU sire by both B Runner and C Runner Index, tops the charts–and by a long way. That again tells us about the earnings opportunities on the Ontario circuit, though it has to be said when we apply the ultimate class test–Grade I and Grade II winners–the Canadian sires tend to disappear from the top of the lists.

Another deceased Canadian sire, the venerable Bold Executive (2.17), also figures among the top 10 NA-EU sires by 3-year-old ABC Index, but otherwise they are names you know. Kendargent (2.36) is better known as a sire of 2-year-olds (his 2.94 ABC 2-year-old Index ranks him equal seventh on that list), but the numbers say he is the leading living NA-EU sire of 3-year-olds by ABC Index, albeit narrowly, ahead of none other than Galileo (2.30, and with 10 times the number of year-starters as Kendargent); Ghostzapper (2.24), the leading living sire by overall ABC Runner Index; and Curlin (2.23), who has advanced to major sire status (and a six-figure stud fee) in the last two seasons. Lope De Vega's first 3-year-olds ran last year, and their 2.23 ABC Index for 3-year-olds tied him with Curlin. Medaglia d'Oro (2.19), Bold Executive (2.17) and Dubawi (2.10) come next, ahead of Sea The Stars (2.10), Street Sense (2.07), War Front (2.05), tied with Indian Charlie (2.05); and Speightstown (2.04), tied with the former Canadian sire Mobil (2.04), who now stands in Ohio. The Canadians and Indian Charlie (who has just had his last crop of 3-year-olds) aside, the other 11 sires on this list are well worth noting, because 3-year-old racing is the most important racing, and they are the best sires of at least break-even-or-better 3-year-olds.

Ghostzapper (2.14), Galileo (2.14), Dubawi (2.13), Curlin (2.13), and Speightstown (2.10) also rank high on the list by 4-year-old ABC Runners, though a few snuck in ahead of them, headed by Paul Reddam's California phenomenon, Square Eddie (2.54, first crop). Arguably Europe's most up-and-coming sire, Dark Angel (2.47) is next, followed by veteran California sire Unusual Heat (2.38), the very useful Big Bad Bob (2.33), initially such a phenomenon we named the Big Bad Bob List after him, and now established as one of Ireland's most useful mid-range sires. Next come the venerable Kentucky sire Distorted Humor (2.25); deceased Dynaformer (2.19), one of the best sons of Roberto; Canadian sires Giant Gizmo (2.17; first 4-year-olds) and Strut The Stage (2.17), and the former Australian champion sire Fastnet Rock (2.15, from his first Irish crop). Rounding out the top 20 leading North American and European sires by 4-year-old ABC Index are: Pioneerof the Nile (2.07); Midnight Lute (2.07); Medaglia d'Oro (2.04); Banstead Manor's Dansili (2.02) and Oasis Dream (2.01); and, in a three-way tie for 20th, Tapit (1.99), Hard Spun (1.99); and the obscure West Virginia sire Fiber Sonde (1.99), a son of Unbridled's Song. You may say the appearance of a West Virginia sire devalues the form, but in fact it just shows how much money horses are running for in West Virginia.

When we look at the leading NA-EU sires by 2-year-old ABC Index, there are some pretty obscure sires among the leaders here. The number one sire by 2-year-old ABC Index is the New York sire Frost Giant (3.98), again testimony to the money available in the New York program, as are the cases in Ontario and West Virginia among others. But not to take anything away from Frost Giant, at least at this (ABC Runner) level. The very obscure (as in I'd never heard of him) Maryland sire Cherokee's Boy (3.32) is next, ahead of a real surprise entrant, Soldier Hollow (3.29), better known as the leading sire in Germany, which is hardly known for its 2-year-olds. Also among the top 15 on this list are Florida sires Hear No Evil (3.24) and Awesome of Course (2.91); California sires Desert Code (3.12) and Vronsky (3.00); Ontario sires Bold Executive (2.94, deceased), Old Forester (2.91), and Saffir (2.90); as well as Too Much Bling (2.94) from Texas; Great Notion (2.93) from Maryland; and Attila's Storm (2.76) from New Mexico. Kendargent (2.94) is, as would be expected, in the top tier of sires of 2-year-old ABC Runners; and not much further down the list are some very familiar names: War Front (2.75); Siyouni (2.63); Square Eddie (2.55); the big bargain Run Away and Hide (2.54); Galileo (2.31); Into Mischief (2.27); and Super Saver (2.26).

Click here for the 2-, 3-, and 4-year-old rankings by ABC Index.