As things turned out, the difference between Tuesday's opening session of this week's Tattersalls October 1 yearling sale and the subsequent two sessions could be summarized by the following statistic: Galileo and Dubawi, between them, had 42 yearlings catalogued to the sale. On Tuesday, only six of those 42 were catalogued; the remaining 36 were catalogued on Wednesday and Thursday. Darley's Dubawi, who had 10 sell of his 13 catalogued throughout the whole sale, actually returned a higher average than Galileo, who had 22 sell of 29 catalogued. Dubawi averaged 654,500gns (about $1.1-million); Galileo averaged 577,727gns (about $977,000). Very significantly, all 10 Dubawis were bought by Maktoum entities: John Ferguson signed for six, Rabbah for three, Shadwell for one. That's a statement.
For the entire three-day sale, 336 yearlings sold for 79,274,000gns, and averaged 235,935gns. The gross was up by 13% from last year's sale, the average up by 14%. There were 336 yearlings sold this year, from 472 catalogued (71.2% of those catalogued); last year 339 sold, of 513 catalogued, for a clearance rate from the catalogue of 66.1%. So the number catalogued dropped by 8% but the number sold by just 1%, due to a 5% improvement in the clearance rate from the catalogue.
When we convert the October 1 figures to dollars, we can make a couple of telling comparisons to Keeneland September Book 1. At Keeneland last month, 473 yearlings sold over four days, for a gross of $142,153,000, and an average of $300,535. This week in Newmarket, 336 yearlings sold for a converted gross of around $134,154,200, and an average of roughly $399,368. To put that in perspective, the top European sale had 71% of the number of horses sold as in the top American sale, for 94% of the money, and a one-third higher average. Essentially, at Keeneland, 118 yearlings a day sold for an average of $300,000 for four days; at Tattersalls, 112 yearlings a day sold for an average of $400,000 over three days.
There were 23 individual stallions which had five or more yearlings sell in October Book 1. Seven of these compiled averages of 280,000gns (roughly $473,000) or higher; not coincidentally, these seven are among the 10 North American or European sires to have averaged $400,000 or more so far in the yearling sales season. Click here to see the Instatistics list of the Top 10 NA/EU sires by yearling average through the end of Book 1 on Thursday. You'll note that eight of the top 10 are European sires; only Tapit ($628,289) and War Front ($591,353) make the list of Top 10 NA/EU commercial sires from North America. What else do you need to know about the stature of North American breeding in the international market these days?
Of the eight European sires to have averaged $400,000+ in this sales season, only Monsun did not have five or more sell in October Book 1. These are the last crops of Monsun and Montjeu, who had five sell this week for an average of 427,000gns. Of all 10 $400,000+ sires so far (the European ones may have more to sell in October 2 and 3 next week, and Arqana October the following week, so their averages could fall), only Sea The Stars (first foals 2011, first 3-year-olds 2014) has oldest foals younger than 6-year-olds this year. The emphasis following the 2008 world economic crash has been on proven sires, but will now shift back a little bit towards unproven– especially as Frankel's first foals will be yearlings next year.
The seven European sires which dominated October 1 represent four different farms. Upset leader Dubawi and #4 ranked Shamardal are from Darley, Dubawi standing at Dalham Hall in Newmarket, Shamardal at Kildangan in Ireland. Coolmore is represented, of course, by Galileo and Montjeu, who finished second and third respectively on average in Book 1. Juddmonte stands, at Banstead Manor, #5 Oasis Dream, the first-day leader who ended up with 30 yearlings averaging 305,500gns (about $517,000), and #7 Dansili (as well as Frankel and, for 2015, Kingman). Sea The Stars, by some margin the youngest on the list, stands at Gilltown Stud in Ireland; his 24 October 1 yearlings to sell averaged 296,875gns (about $502,000).
Four stallions represented by their first crops had five or more sell this week, but Coolmore's Zoffany, a son of Dansili whose best race was probably when he nearly caught the seriously idling Frankel in the 2011 G1 St. James's Palace S. at Royal Ascot, did have three sell for an average of 336,667gns, which raised his overall average for the sales season (69 sold so far) to $82,396. The new leading first-year sire by yearling average is Darley's Poet's Voice, a son of man-of-the-moment Dubawi who nosed out Rip Van Winkle in the 2010 G1 Queen Elizabeth S. at a mile, at Ascot, at the end of his 3-year-old campaign. Strongly supported both by Sheikh Mohammed but even more so by Qatari Sheikh Joaan's Al Shaqab racing, which bought a colt and a filly by Poet's Voice for 475,000gns and 700,000gns respectively toward the end of Thursday's session, Poet's Voice finished up with seven selling in October Book 1 for an average of 257,143gns, which propelled him into the top spot among NA/EU sires with his first yearlings selling; according to Instatistics (click here–Freshman Sires only), he's now had 23 yearlings sell this season, for an average just a hair under $200,000.
At least, for the young (F2013) stallions whose first foals arrived in 2013 and are yearlings this year, the top-10 ratio between Europe and North America is not so lopsided as with the top proven sires. Though Europe has three of the top four, North America does have five of the top 10: Claiborne's Trappe Shot ($133,727); Ashford's Uncle Mo ($119,250, with 84 sold!) and Cape Blanco ($87,324); Castleton Lyons' Gio Ponti ($99,755); and Spendthrift's Tizway ($83,585). Europe has: Darley's Poet's Voice ($199,342); Ballylinch's Dream Ahead ($137,210), and a trio of Coolmore stallions–Pour Moi ($132,379); Canford Cliffs ($95,047); and Zoffany ($82,396).
Finally, relating to October 1, a note about shopping. You know, some people like shopping in department stores. Some people like shopping for antiques. Fortunately for the horse business, Sheikh Mohammed clearly loves shopping for horses. Newmarket is easy and convenient, on his doorstep, so to speak, and Tattersalls October 1 is now the single best yearling sale in the world. John Ferguson signed for 38 yearlings this week for Sheikh Mohammed, and friends and family (Rabbah and Sheikh Hamdan's Shadwell, which is admittedly active at roughly the same level at all the major yearling sales) bought another 47. Total: 85 yearlings signed for by John Ferguson, Rabbah, or Shadwell. Total spend: 24,957,000gns–31% of the sale's gross. I'm going to make a guess that Qatari interests accounted for about half the Maktoum total. Sheikh Joaan was at the sale on Thursday, when three were knocked down to Al Shaqab, but throughout the week a pretty good proportion of the buys made by at least three agents/teams–Peter and Ross Doyle, Charlie Gordon-Watson, and John Warren–were almost certainly made on behalf of Al Shaqab. When you add in other Al-Thani family purchases (Bernard le Metayer and David Redvers), my guess is that Qatar bought around 43 yearlings for around 12.6-million guineas. I emphasize that's a guess, but if roughly in the ballpark it would mean that Maktoum plus Al-Thani purchases would account for about 38% of the purchases and 47% of the money. That's all good news for October Books 2 (Mon-Wed) and 3 (Thu-Fri) next week
NEXT COLUMN: Friday, October 17, covering October Book 2.
Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.
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