Bill Oppenheim: It's Value Sire Time

Here we begin the series where it becomes clear why, after meeting me for 10 minutes, the late John Finney asked: “what was your name again? Opinionheim?” Yes, here we talk about horses which for some reason or another strike me as 'good value', although–caution to commercial breeders–my definition of 'good value' is probably more about producing racehorses than it is about sales results. So let's begin.

AMERICAN SIRES AT $25k+: Three Chimneys' Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song) remains at $30,000. This seems a very reasonable price. After running unplaced in all three legs of the Triple Crown, after which he had a record of 3-1-0, including a win in the GII Rebel S., from his first 10 starts, the Wayne Lukas trainee suddenly got good, seemingly as soon as the Triple Crown was over, and in his subsequent eleven starts he was 4-5-1 with two Grade I wins (the Travers and the Clark H.), two Grade II wins, and four Grade I placings, including dropping a nose decision to Mucho Macho Man in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic. He was a clear choice for the Eclipse Award for 3-year-old males after his second half of the year. His first foals have just made him the leading North American first-crop sire of weanlings at the sales, where 18 foals (of 24 offered) by Will Take Charge have averaged $128,444, with a median of $105,000– itself a good return (3.5x) on his $30,000 stud fee.

Ashford's Munnings (Speightstown, first 4-year-olds 2016, $25,000) has been dueling with Lane's End's Quality Road ($35,000, and also a good sire) for supremacy among a group of nearly a dozen useful North American sires with their first 4-year-olds this year (F2012, first foals 2012). Quality Road is the leader by 2016 earnings ($5.75 million, to $5 million this year for Munnings in second), but in cumulative progeny earnings, Munnings still leads by over $500,000, with $11.2 million, to Quality Road's $10.6 million. Also Munnings is the leading North American F2012 sire by cumulative Black-Type winners (16), whereas Quality Road has eight. We'll come back to this group, but Munnings and Quality Road are clearly one-two in most important categories. Munnings has very good APEX ratings also: 2.18 for A Runners (MidYear 2016), 1.98 for B Runners. Munnings hasn't been selling that well, and the knock against him is he only has one Grade I winner so far, but our experience is (including observing Scat Daddy and Curlin) that when they are siring A Runners as consistently as they have up until now, more often than not the Grade I winners will follow. In any case, we consider Munnings at $25,000 a seriously good buy for 2017.

Claiborne's Orb (Malibu Moon, $25,000) broke his maiden in his fourth start, but made up for lost time by running the table in his first four starts as a 3-year-old, culminating in wins in the GI Florida Derby and GI Kentucky Derby. He was then fourth in the GI Preakness, third in the GI Belmont (to Palace Malice) and GI Travers (to Will Take Charge) before running off the board against 'olders' in his final career start, in the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup. But he had proved his mettle, and he's getting a big shot at Claiborne. He was Leading Freshman Sire at the yearling sales, where he had 55 yearlings from his first crop sell (from 71 offered) for an average of $148,318, and a median of $125,000–5x his stud fee. You'd have to be happy with that. He's been very well received by the commercial market, and is standing at a top farm, which has made many champion sires.

There's no disputing Coolmore's propaganda machine is among the world's best (probably in any business–that's a compliment, by the way, Richard Henry), but sometimes peoples' cynicism can cause them to miss something important which is right in front of them. Case in point: Air Force Blue (War Front), who will be standing his first season at Ashford for $25,000. Sure, everybody was disappointed–none more so than Aidan O'Brien and the Coolmore partners–when Air Force Blue was a complete flop this year as a 3-year-old, but that doesn't wash away his 2-year-old form last year, when he won three Group 1's–the Phoenix S., the National S. and the Dewhurst–and ended the 2015 the highest-rated 2-year-old ever trained by Aidan O'Brien. Sorry, but once you read that, the debate is over. That kind of 2-year-old class is very dangerous; very good sires have had similar records to Air Force Blue's–only they weren't as good as him as 2-year-olds.

BEST (BUYS) OF THE BEST: Munnings, for $25,000, in America. Yes, they may breed 200 mares to him, but he needs it, having three crops under 60 (this year's 3yo's, 2yo's, and yearlings). NEXT WEEK: sires at £/€/$12,500-20,000.

EUROPEAN SIRES AT £25k+/€25k+: It's not often we tout a stallion standing for €40,000 as good value, but Darley Kildangan's Teofilo (Galileo) has earned the designation. His first foals were born in 2009, which means his sixth crop are 2-year-olds this year. Though an unbeaten 2-year-old champion himself, Teofilo is even better as a sire of older horses. He's the sire of 52 Black-Type winners worldwide (includes some from Australian crops), and 25 GSW, and has a 2.45 APEX A Runner Index through Midyear 2016. He's the sire of six European Group 1 winners, plus another in the UAE, from five crops of 3-year-olds plus. Since he'll be covering his 10th book of mares in 2017 we've had plenty of time to absorb his overall record, and that makes him a very respectable buy.

In the last of his three starts at two, Coolmore's Australia (€35,000), by Galileo out of the great racemare Ouija Board, by Cape Cross, went off the 5-2 second-favorite behind 2-5 Free Eagle (High Chaparral) in a compact four-horse field for the one-mile G3 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Trial S. at Leopardstown, but ran away from him and won the race by six lengths. He was a close third to upset winner Night of Thunder (Dubawi) and Kingman (Invincible Spirit) in the G1 English 2000 Guineas in his first start at three, then won, in succession, the G1 Epsom Derby; the G1 Irish Derby (at 8-1 on, in a five-horse field); and the G1 Juddmonte International against 'olders'; then Joseph O'Brien turned in one of the most over-confident rides ever seen in the G1 Irish Champion S. in what turned out to be his final career start, and he was beaten by The Grey Gatsby (Mastercraftsman). His credentials are as good or better than any other sire prospect with comparable form, which I would say makes him a great buy for €35,000 in his third season.

Shadwell's Muhaarar (Oasis Dream, £30,000) had been a good 2-year-old, winning the G2 Gimcrack and running third in the G1 Middle Park on soft ground. At three, he won the G3 Greenham at seven furlongs as an unconsidered 16-1 shot, after which trainer Charlie Hills ran him in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) but he was mid-pack in that. He then reverted to sprinting, and won, in order: the inaugural running of the G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot against 3-year-olds, and three races against older horses as well: the G1 July Cup; the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest; and the G1 British Champions Sprint. In other words, he was unbeaten sprinting from Royal Ascot on. His sire, Oasis Dream, was an absolutely top-class sprinter, and this guy was the same. I would say he is very reasonably priced–if not cheap–for as good a racehorse as he really was.

Speaking of top-class sprinters, another horse we're very keen on is the Haras de Bouquetot's Shalaa (Invincible Spirit, €27,500), though on the basis of his 2-year-old form, as he was sidelined by injury at the start of his 3-year-old year, this year, and only made it back for a couple of races late in the year. He was the best sprinting 2-year-old of 2015, though, for trainer John Gosden, reeling off five straight wins, all at six furlongs, after running last in his debut. These wins included two Group 2 wins in the July S. at Newmarket and the Richmond S. at Goodwood, followed by two Group 1 wins, in the Prix Morny and the Middle Park. He is inbred 3×3 to Danzig, being out of a mare by War Chant. We like this kind of intense inbreeding for production even more than for performance, so if he's an even better sire than he was a racehorse, look out.

After three years when he has stood for £35,000; £40,000; and £40,000, Cheveley Park's Dutch Art (Medicean) has dropped to £25,000 for 2017, when he'll be standing his 10th season. He's a thoroughly proven sire, and he will have got much better mares the last three years than previously, so it's a fair bet that there will be a few household names by him out there by the time the products of 2017 matings appear at the sales and on the racecourse. It could be the right time to follow on; maybe he is a little quiet now, precipitating the price drop, but to some extent (certainly commercially) breeders want to be able to predict favourable conditions in the future. Dutch Art at £25,000 is a reasonable gamble to still be popular, or be more popular in two or three years' time, because as a sire, he does have the form in the book.

BEST (BUYS) OF THE BEST: A tie between Australia (€35,000) and Muhaarar (£30,000). NEXT WEEK: sires at £/€/12,500-20,000.