Bill Oppenheim: Elite Eight, Final Four

by Bill Oppenheim

ELITE EIGHT
With next Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park (100 points to the winner) and Keeneland's GIII Lexington S. (10 points) the only remaining Derby preps with points, there are now eight colts which dominate the GI Kentucky Derby discussion, pending the confirmation of American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) as one of those 'elite eight' (apologies for the basketball reference) in Arkansas.

Of the eight, two each are trained by Bob Baffert in the West and by Todd Pletcher in the East. Baffert trains American Pharoah and Dortmund (Big Brown), who is still undefeated in six starts after an ultimately relatively easy win in last Saturday's GI Santa Anita Derby (Beyer 106) over yet another Baffert trainee, One Lucky Dane, from the first crop by Ashford's Lookin At Lucky. Pletcher trains GI Blue Grass winner Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway), who also had a relatively easy time of it, though his Beyer was only a 95, following a 98 in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby in his previous 2015 start. He also trains Materiality (Afleet Alex), who ran a Beyer 110 over a very tiring Gulfstream strip (the winning time was 1:52:1/5) in annexing the GI Florida Derby in only his third lifetime start. Having only made his debut on January 15, he will attempt to become the first horse in 133 years to win the Kentucky Derby not having run at two.
Given that daunting statistic, many handicappers will prefer Upstart (Flatter), who ran second to Materiality in the Florida Derby, with a Beyer 108 and 12 1/2 lengths back to the third horse. Upstart strikes me as a horse with the right style for this particular race, as many of the other principal contenders like to race at or near the front, and he can lay off the pace without getting too far back. But he has contested all three Florida prep races: the GII Holy Bull, which he won; the GII Fountain of Youth, which he won, then lost via disqualification; and the Florida Derby. He's had a tough campaign already.

Dubai's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, will have a runner via Godolphin Stable's Frosted (Tapit), who won Saturday's GI Wood Memorial (Beyer 103) after disappointing when only fourth in the Fountain of Youth; and the Dubai ruler's cousin, Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al-Maktoum, will also have a runner, after the runaway eight-length win by the Mike De Kock-trained Mubtaahij in the G2 UAE Derby over 9 1/2 furlongs on Dubai World Cup day. Rounding out the top eight is Firing Line, from the first crop by Spendthrift's Line of David. He dropped two photos to Dortmund in the GI Los Alamitos (formerly Cashcall) Futurity late last year, and in the GIII Robert Lewis (Beyer 104) in February, then clobbered the opposition by 14 lengths in the $800,000 GIII Sunland Derby.

This reads like quite a solid list of horses, at least of nine-furlong horses. That tenth furlong makes it a whole different story, and I'm just not sure I can quite visualize how that might go yet. But one horse who ran like he might relish that extra furlong on Saturday was El Kabeir (Scat Daddy), third in the Wood after getting far behind and finishing strongly without ever looking like he would trouble the leaders. He won the GIII Withers and GIII Gotham and ran second in the GIII Jerome on the Aqueduct inner track this winter and could be a lively outsider to hit the board.

FINAL FOUR
It looks like a strong edition of the GI Kentucky Oaks this year, with major contenders from three regions: the West, the East, and the Midwest. California-based Hronis Racing (John Sadler, conditioner) went and bought the Curlin fillyStellar Wind after she won a one-mile Laurel Park maiden by nearly nine lengths in December, and she's since won the GIII Santa Ysabel and last Saturday's GI Santa Anita Oaks (Beyer 98) by 5 1/4 lengths. The Florida representative is the Dale Romans trainee Birdatthewire, from the first-crop of the ill-fated Summer Bird; she won the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks (Beyer 89). Larry Jones trains the two midwest contenders: the queen of Louisiana this winter, GII Fair Grounds Oaks winner (Beyer 94) I'm A Chatterbox, from the first crop by Ashford's Munnings; and Lovely Maria, who had been second to I'm A Chatterbox in the GIII Rachel Alexandra, gave her sire, Airdrie's Majesticperfection, a big boost with a game win in Keeneland's GI Ashland S. (Beyer 91) last Saturday. They'll all be stepping up from a mile and a sixteenth to a mile and an eighth, but it's sure shaping up as a hot race this year, with Stellar Wind and I'm A Chatterbox the likely favorites, admittedly four weeks out.

SECOND-CROP SIRE REPORT
After the weekend racing, Munnings has regained his lead on the TDN YTD Second-Crop Sire List over Lookin At Lucky (the first two both Ashford stallions), though the gap (through Monday) is now just $34,000 after Lookin At Lucky's One Lucky Dane, as noted above, ran second in the GI Santa Anita Derby; Lookin At Lucky still leads Munnings on the cumulative second-crop sire list. Majesticperfection moves into third in 2015 after Lovely Maria's Ashland win, withLine of David fourth, Taylor Made's Eskendereya fifth, and Spendthrift's Warrior's Reward moving into sixth after his colt, Tencendur, ran second in the GI Wood. Spendthrift in fact now has three of the top-10 2015 second-crop sires: #4 Line of David; #6 Warrior's Reward; and #10 Temple City, sire of Santa Anita Derby third, Bolo.

Summer Bird, who died soon after his export to Japan, ranks seventh, with GI Kentucky Oaks contender Birdattthwire, while Claiborne's Blame moves into eighth spot in 2015 after the win by March in the seven-furlong GIII Bay Shore on the Wood undercard. Darley's Midshipman is ninth, and Temple City, as mentioned, ranks 10th. Also with 2015 earnings over $400,000, in order, are WinStar's Super Saver; Darby Dan's Tale of Ekati; and the Lane's End duo of Quality Road and Discreetly Mine. The latter, a half-brother to Discreet Cat by Mineshaft, might just be one to keep a little bit of an eye on.

Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at [email protected] (please cc TDN management at [email protected]). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.