Bill Oppenheim: Early Returns

In 2015, the three Fasig-Tipton sales which kick off the North American yearling sale market had a total of 825 yearlings catalogued, of which 532 (64.4%) were listed as sales, totaling $81,636,000 (see the Weekly Sales Ticker), and averaging $153,451. The three sales comprised a little over 10% of the number catalogued (7,907) and sold (5,094), and about 20% of 2015 North American yearling revenues of $412,337,600.

We're only just underway with the 2016 yearling sales, but these first three Fasig-Tipton yearling sales are clearly an important first section of the North American yearling market.

In comparison with 2015, the three sales are down by single digits in three important categories: the number sold was down 3%, from 532 to 516; the gross was down 8%, from $81,636,000 to $74,999,000 (couldn't somebody have bid another $1,000?); and the average was down 5%, from $153,451 over the three sales, to $145,346. As the number catalogued was up by 9%, from 825 to 905, the clearance rate from the catalogues dropped by 7.4%, from 64.4% in 2015 to 57.0% in 2016. That's not a figure you like to see, though the specifics are that 80 more horses were catalogued among the three sales, and 16 fewer horses were sold.

The decline in comparison to last year's sales is somewhat mitigated by the fact that last year's three-sale Fasig market had seen big jumps in two important categories in 2015: last year, the number sold in the three sales was up by 17% from 2014, as 532 yearlings sold last year, 80 more than the 452 sold in 2014; and the $81,636,000 gross last year was 30% higher–over $19-million–than the $62,546,000 gross in 2014. The 2015 average was also up by 10%, from $138,376 to $153,471. Even after the single-digit declines this year, in comparison to 2014 the three sales had 21% more horses catalogued and 14% more yearlings sold; the gross was up 20%, from $62.5-million to just under $75-million; and the average was up 5% compared to 2014, from $138,376 to $145,346. So it's not as though the North American market is collapsing, though, as we said after Fasig July, it's tough sledding.

As noted last week after the main Saratoga sale, three North American sires have averaged over $500,000 so far. Gainesway's Tapit leads the way with a $687,500 average from 10 sold (click here); Darley's Medaglia d'Oro has had six sell, for an average of $609,166; and Claiborne's War Front has just had two sell, but they've averaged $555,000. Tapit has 45 yearlings catalogued for Keeneland September Book 1; Medaglia d'Oro has 40 and War Front 31, so among the three, they've had a total of 18 sell so far, with another 116 catalogued among the three of them for Keeneland Book 1. Adena Springs's Ghostzapper ($395,000) comes next, followed by WinStar's Speightstown ($312,857) Darley's Bernardini ($295,000), and Coolmore Ashford's Giant's Causeway ($267,500). Rounding out the top 10 by North American yearling average so far are three sires who started out for a lot lower stud fees than they stand for (or would have stood for) now: Coolmore Ashford's Scat Daddy stood for $30,000 in 2014 and has averaged $267,001 so far (12 sold), while the same farm's Uncle Mo has already had 22 yearlings sell for an average of $254,909, off a $27,500 stud fee. WinStar's Pioneerof the Nile stood for $20,000 in 2014; his eight yearlings sold so far have averaged $242,875. These 10 sires have had 70 yearlings sell so far; in Keeneland Book 1 alone they have another 271 catalogued–an average of 27 each.

Among sires whose first yearlings are selling this year (F2015 sires, first foals 2015), five have so far notched up averages over $140,000: Claiborne's 2013 GI Kentucky Derby winner Orb (Malibu Moon) has had eight yearlings average $183,125 (click here), and has 11 more catalogued in Book 1. Calumet's 2013 GI Preakness winner Oxbow (Awesome Again) has been impressing the judges so far, and has also had eight sell, for an average of $163,125. Coolmore Ashford's champion 2012 2-year-old Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday) has had 13 average $159,076, while Darley's GI Kentucky Derby and G1 Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux) has had four average $156,250. WinStar's Paynter, the 2012 GI Haskell winner, is a true three-quarter brother to Oxbow, the two being by Awesome Again out of full sisters (who are also full sisters to Tiznow). Paynter has had eight yearlings average $147,500 so far. The top first-year prospects are not so prominent in Keeneland Book 1: besides Orb's 11, Animal Kingdom has nine catalogued, and Shanghai Bobby four, but the aforementioned three-quarter brothers will not be making their Keeneland appearances until Book 2.

ARQANA AUGUST: Tuesday will be in the books by the time you read this, and the v.2 sale is today, but the two big days (evenings) were Sunday-Monday. With one more catalogued than last year (189-188), they had 10% more sell (140-127), which lifted the clearance rate from the catalogue to 74.0% from 67.5% last year. So that's a positive. Otherwise, though, the results read a lot like those for the three Fasig sales: Arqana Sunday-Monday was down 5% in gross and 14% in average; Fasig's three sales were down 8% in gross and 5% in average. The cast of buyers was mostly different, but the results were pretty similar. Coolmore's World Number One, Galileo, had the €1.4-million sale-topper and has now edged in front of Tapit with four yearlings having averaged $721,902. Juddmonte's Frankel has had 10 sell, for an average of $474,194, followed by the Irish National Stud's Invincible Spirit (8, $375,355); Juddmonte's Dansili (3, $373,078); and La Cauviniere's Le Havre (2, $368,379), considering only sires with two or more sold. As you know, we routinely convert sales figures to US$ dollars, and one thing we'll have to be thinking about this year is the 20% fall in sterling from this time a year ago. This is great for people buying in sterling (starting next week in Doncaster, a/k/a Goffs UK) or guineas, but is something we'll have to keep in mind as the sale season progresses, since sires which average the same as last year in sterling/guineas will be averaging 20% less in dollars.