Bill Nader Q&A Part 2: 40 HHR Machines “Soft Launch For Place This Big”

The New Year marks a brave new world for California racing, with one circuit largely consolidated in the South.

On New Year's morning, the TDN sat down with Bill Nader, president and CEO of the Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC), to discuss this new landscape. In part one, Nader shared, among other things, how simulcasting monies redirected from the North could benefit tracks and purses in the South to the tune of $20 million annually.

Here in part two, Nader discusses expectations about horse inventory, impacts on California's breeders, and Historic Horse Racing. The following has been edited for brevity and clarity.

TDN: So far, it's been a real struggle to fill some of the races restricted to the Northern California horses and horsemen and women. Are you expecting that to be an ongoing struggle?
BN: We'll see. This weekend, we'll see two races [restricted to the Northern horses] on Friday and then two on Sunday. On Sunday for the first time in over a year [for the Northern horsemen and women], you'll see an allowance race with a purse over $30,000. It was $26,000 at Pleasanton. Golden Gate had to reduce purses in the first half of 2024. We'll see how that race does.

The closing day of Golden State Racing was Dec. 18. Their last two days of racing, their entry box was full-it was probably their biggest two days in terms of number horses that participated over their 25-day season.

Pleasanton racing | Vassar Photography

The landscape has changed quickly, so, for them to fully digest and really understand what was going on, I didn't expect for the first weekend much activity, especially with Dec. 26 being such a blockbuster day.

From here on in, we get into a different pattern where it's more normal. With two races on Friday and two races on Sunday, we're going to look at participation. Our expectation is that would grow hopefully over the next weeks as we really get into 2025.

TDN: Is any consideration being given to expanding the menu of races on offer at Los Alamitos to further cater to the Northern California horse population?
BN: Not at this time. We we would need to have a statutory change to do that.

Last weekend, on Saturday and Sunday, there were 23 horses from Pleasanton entered at Los Alamitos. So, it's happening more naturally. Horses are going there and running there.

Santa Anita dropped the bottom [claiming race] to $5,000. Initially it was $6,250. And then in consultation with the horsemen up North, the decision was made that the floor should be $5,000. In fact, one of the races on Friday I believe is a $5,000 claimer. Again, in consultation with those in the North, the bottom price for a maiden claiming is now $8,000. That mirrors what it was up North.

With that, it covers a large percentage of the horse population up North at Santa Anita. Los Alamitos can cater to some of the other horses. So, we think we pretty much have blanket coverage at this point. But we'll keep an eye on it and see, you know, with the participation rate. Is it working? Does it make sense for both sides as a win-win proposition?

TDN: One of the concerns that trainers raised about this new arrangement is the wear and tear on horses traveling up and down the state.
In July of 2023, The Stronach Group outlined a $30 million plus investment package for its SoCal properties – proposals that would be extremely beneficial to horse health and welfare. This included an equine swimming pool, barn improvements and horse exercisers.
Several of these projects were supposed to have been completed by now. The synthetic track is obviously done. But what about all the other promised improvements that would greatly benefit your constituents and the horses in general?
BN: I don't know if the swimming pool is still on the table. Obviously, the Tapeta track has been a big benefit.

Now with the travel stipends and the relocation allowance, I know there were some discussions with some trainers up North that will be coming down-those are private discussions with Santa Anita. But everything else, I think we're still waiting to see how those plans actually develop, given that everything seems to be changing pretty quickly.

Hong Kong racing | HKJC

I looked at races today, on Jan. 1 in Hong Kong, and there were 51 horses entered that had been stabled at Conghua [training facility] since their last start in Hong Kong, that were coming down to run. That is on average a 6 1/2 hour trip each way. For those horses and trainers that do that, they have operations in both places. They move from one to the other.

Here, if they come down and stay, and I know this from my time in Hong Kong, doing barn area improvements at Santa Anita becomes a little bit more complicated. To do that work, you need to free up stall space by moving horses. Then there's noise mitigation.

TDN: At the same time, would you agree with the many horsemen and women here that improvements to the Santa Anita backstretch are desperately overdue?
BN: That's something we'll have to continue to dial up from a 360 view about what we can do. But the focus now has shifted to, 'how do we cater to the population in the North? How do we use all resources efficiently and effectively to keep horses in California?'

TDN: What can you share about plans to introduce Historic Horse Racing machines at California tracks, as a possible alternate source of revenues?
BN: When we look at 2025, I think where we're going now, I do think there's a great message to get out in that we seem to be moving in the right direction. The single circuit delivers upside to purses, and helps to eliminate all the concerns that we've had over the past several years regarding purse payments, so we can get our financial house in order.

But that still doesn't eliminate the need for the big bang secondary stream of income that would come from something like HHR. That still has to be our top priority. But we're still in the early stages in terms of strategic thinking.

I can't give you specifics as to when, but there would need to be a very layered approach as to what's necessary. For example, I would expect that we would need to go back to the CHRB [California Horse Racing Board] one more time and get another second set of approvals before we could even consider a soft launch.

TDN: What would a soft launch look like?
BN: Initially, what the request was forty machines, which is very soft launch for a place this big [Santa Anita]. Really, Santa Anita has done the real work in developing the plan.

TDN: Do they have buy-in from Tribal entities?
BN: That's the part that's still missing. We're a long way off because those discussions really have not entered the stage where I can really give you a good answer. But yes, you would think you would need some kind of an agreement with the Tribes to be able to launch this thing with the certainty that it's sustainable.

TDN: Talking of sustainable, how do you see this one circuit program impacting California breeders?
BN: If the buy-in is there and the participation is there and the single circuit works. They can come down now and run in restricted races for higher purse money, with cost of stable and training and transport being picked up. So, the value proposition is as enticing as it can possibly be, and that protects the breeding industry. There are still the opportunities in California. If those races don't fill and there's lesser opportunities…

Santa Anita all-weather track | Benoit

I mean, the ideal situation would be to expand Santa Anita to a four-day week. We've talked about making 15 races a week available to horses in the North. Now, in order to get 15 races to fill at this stage looks like a tall pass. It's early days. But the effort is being made to deliver as many races as possible for the industry.

With the redirect, once we get rid of the purse overpayment, purse money is going to come up. If you look at Santa Anita, and using your scenario where the fairs continue to be in operation, if there's $6 million more in purse money over a, say, 90-day season, that's a considerable increase to purses. And that will benefit California breeders, too. Everybody sees upside.

TDN: Finally, what's California racing going to look like when we sit down here in a year's time?
BN: We will definitely be stronger in 2026 because I think the overpayment at Del Mar will be gone. The overpayment at Santa Anita will be in check. And Los Alamitos as well.

We're going to start reversing that trend that we've experienced over the last three years–we're going to start coming back up. Where we are with that secondary stream of income, I think we will have a much clearer picture of whether it's achievable or not by 2026. To that, I can't give a clear answer.

But I would expect that as you look to Jan. 1, 2026, all three tracks in the South are going to be in a much better position than they were at the start of this year.

TDN: Will horses still be stabled at Pleasanton in a year's time?
BN: I don't know. That's a question for Alameda County Fair.