Bids for Glory

by Bill Oppenheim
This coming Saturday, June 7, is the biggest day of the racing year so far, because that is the day we find out if California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) becomes the 12th Triple Crown winner, or the 12th to make the race and fail in the 36 years since Affirmed followed Secretariat and Seattle Slew as the third Triple Crown winner of the seventies. California Chrome, the 6-5 favorite on Betfair on Monday, goes into the GI Belmont S. having won three Grade Is in a row, including the first two legs of the Triple Crown.
By contrast, the 7-5 favorite on Betfair for Saturday's G1 Epsom Derby, Australia (a 525,000gns Tattersalls October 1 yearling buy by the Coolmore team–interestingly the same price they paid for Camelot two years earlier, and by Galileo out of Ouija Board), has never won a Group 1. He's only had four lifetime starts. In his third and final start at two, he slammed the highly regarded (since injured) Free Eagle (High Chaparral) in the G3 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Trial S. over a mile at Leopardstown last September. He then ran a good third to Night of Thunder (Dubawi) and subsequent G1 Irish 2000 Guineas winner Kingman (Invincible Spirit) in the G1 English 2000 Guineas.
Conventional wisdom holds that Guineas form is the best Derby form, because the Guineas mile trip four weeks before the Derby is the perfect tune-up for a horse with speed that stays, and that's exactly what the betting is on Australia. His connections are worried about the ground being too soft, but connections of the probable second favorite (around 8-1 on Betfair), last year's soft-ground G1 Racing Post Trophy winner Kingston Hill, owned by Paul Smith (son of Coolmore partner Derrick Smith) and by last year's leading freshman sire Mastercraftsman, are worried if the ground firms up too much. Kingston Hill was eighth in the Guineas, but probably simply doesn't have miler speed.
The weather forecast suggests it will probably be good-to-soft on Saturday, maybe on the good side of good-to-soft, which wouldn't unduly inconvenience anybody. The big rain is due today, so we should pretty much know after today how the ground will ride.
Six other colts, five of whom came out of one of two major 10-furlong preps, the G2 Dante at York or the G2 Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown, were trading between 10-1 and 20-1, though not in the order in which they finished in the trials. Derrinstown third Geoffrey Chaucer (Montjeu) and Dante third True Story (Manduro) were around the 12-1 mark, while the Derrinstown one-two Fascinating Rock (Fastnet Rock) and Ebanoran (Oasis Dream), and the Dante second Arod (Teofilo), were all around 16-1. As you may remember, Ebanoran finished first in the Derrinstown, but interfered with Geoffrey Chaucer, for which he was disqualified behind Fascinating Rock, but not behind the horse he interfered with. The Dante, of course, got a huge boost when the winner, The Grey Gatsby, became Mastercraftsman's second Group 1 winner in last weekend's G1 Prix du Jockey-Club–French Derby. The sixth contender in that price range isWestern Hymn (High Chaparral), unbeaten in three starts, including the G3 Sandown Classic Trial last time out.
Later Saturday, California Chrome's bid for glory should depend simply on whether he can get the trip. He had both the GI Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness wrapped up at the eighth pole, so they will have to outstay him to beat him. Mind you, in the last 36 years the Derby and Preakness winner has been outstayed 11 times in 11 tries, so right around even money seems a fair gamble. Either he will stay the trip, or he won't. There are only a few thousand staked on Betfair at the moment, but thus far the market identifies four main challengers, all around 7-1 or 8-1; the GI Preakness second Ride on Curlin (Curlin); GI Kentucky Derby second and fourth Commanding Curve (Master Command) and Wicked Strong(Hard Spun); and GII Peter Pan S. winner Tonalist (Tapit). Derby fifth Samraat (by Noble Causeway, who unfortunately died before he could reap the rewards of Samraat's good form) and Derby also-rans Medal Count (Dynaformer) andGeneral a Rod (Roman Ruler, fourth in the Preakness) are priced between 17-1 and 25-1. If California Chrome stays, he wins. If not, I would fancy Wicked Strong, of those who have finished behind him, and Tonalist, who he hasn't faced.
But there will be an awesome supporting cast at Belmont, which is running 10 black-type races, nine graded, including six Grade Is and two Grade IIs, with a total of $7.7-million in stakes purses, in what should be a massive Super Saturday. Besides the $1.5-million Belmont, they are running: the $1.25-million GI Met Mile (3yos+, 1m, dirt); the $1-million GI Manhattan (4yo's+, 10f, turf); the $1 million GI Ogden Phipps (4yo+ f/m, 1 1/16m, dirt); the $750,000 GI Acorn (3yo fillies, 1m, dirt); the $750,000 GI Just a Game (4yo+ f/m, 1m, turf); the $500,000 GII Brooklyn (4yos+, 1 1/2m, dirt); the $500,000 GII Woody Stephens (3yo, 7f, dirt); the $300,000 GIII Jaipur (4yos+, 6f, turf); and the $150,000 Easy Goer (3yo, 1 1/16m, dirt). That is some card, and should provide some really interesting betting opportunities. It's a great idea which hopefully will get serious fan, as well as industry, support.
The weekend's Classics kick off with Friday's G1 Epsom Oaks, run this year in honor of the late, great Sir Henry Cecil, who won it eight times. Two horses are seriously fancied. Favorite for the last month has been Sheikh Hamdan's Sea the Stars filly Taghrooda, who routed the field by six lengths in the listed Pretty Polly S. at Newmarket on Guineas weekend, but she has been displaced as favorite by Coolmore's impressive G1 Irish 1000 Guineas winner Marvellous, who is by Galileo out of a 2-year-old Group 2-winning full-sister to Giant's Causeway. Yesterday on Betfair, Marvellous was about 3-1, Taghrooda 7-2.
Third choice is Godolphin's Ihtimal (Shamardal), who was third in the G1 English 1000 Guineas. Sheikh Hamdan's second string, the Irish-trained Tarfasha (Teofilo), who beat older fillies last out in the G3 Blue Wind S., is around 10-1 fourth choice. Trial winners Madame Chiang (from the first crop by Archipenko), Marsh Daisy (Pivotal), and Volume (Mount Nelson) are around 14-1 to 16-1 shots, with a couple of other Trial winners, Anipa (another Sea the Stars filly) and Honor Bound (Authorized) among the bigger outsiders.
The sneaky outsider is Sir Robert Ogden's Amazing Maria (Mastercraftsman), the mount of one Frankie Dettori. She had to miss the G1 English 1000 and hasn't run this year, so has been off people's radar, but she was rapidly improving at the end of last season.

SECOND-CROP SIRE UPDATE
The Grey Gatsby's decisive win in Sunday's G1 Prix du Jockey Club not only validated the form of his win in the G2 Dante S. two and a half weeks previously, it also shot last year's leading NA/EU freshman sire, Coolmore's Mastercraftsman (Danehill Dancer), straight to the top of the NA/EU year-to-date second-crop sire list (click here). You'll note that, of the six sires with over $1 million in 2014 progeny earnings, four are European. The 2014 number twoThewayyouare (Kingmambo) has certainly shown enough to earn a promotion back to the main Coolmore farm, but $1.2 million of his 2014 earnings came from Toast of New York's impressive win in the G2 UAE Derby. He was originally going to run back in the G1 Epsom Derby this weekend, but connections have had a change of heart, and instead are pointing him for the $1.25-million GI Belmont Derby (10f, turf) on July 5.
The other three of the top four 2014 European second-crop sires look like even more serious business. Mastercraftsman has now sired five group winners and seven group horses in his first crop, including two Group 1 winners–Kingston Hill and The Grey Gatsby. He was a top racehorse himself, winner of four Group 1 races–the Phoenix S. and National S. at two, and the Irish 2000 Guineas and St. James's Palace S. at three, as well as twice placing behind Sea the Stars at 10 furlongs, in the G1 Juddmonte International and the G1 Irish Champion S. Gilltown's Sea the Stars (Cape Cross) is now third among European second-crop sires by 2014 progeny earnings, but he is the leader in four back-type categories this year, with five back-type winners, three of which are group stakes winners; and 11 black-type horses, of which five are group stakes horses, including two who've run Group 1 seconds for the Aga Khan in the last 10 days: the filly Vazira, second in the G1 Prix Saint-Alary; and the colt Shamkiyr, second to The Grey Gatsby in the G1 Prix du Jockey-Club last weekend. Sea the Stars how has four Group 3 winners and, as mentioned above, two contenders including virtual co-favorite Taghrooda in Friday's G1 Epsom Oaks. It is definitely happening.
Haras de la Cauveniere's 2009 G1 Prix du Jockey-Club winner Le Havre (Noverre) is the fourth European second-crop sire with over $1 million in 2014 progeny earnings. He is the sire of G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) winner Avenir Certain, who could be favored over another French-trained filly, G1 English 1000 Guineas winner Miss France (Dansili) for their showdown in Royal Ascot's G1 Coronation S. Also, last Sunday another filly by Le Havre, dual listed winner La Hoguette, ran a good second in the G2 Prix du Sandringham on the French Derby undercard. So far the Racing Post website lists no fewer than seven runners by Le Havre which have run Racing Post Ratings (RPR) of 99+; very impressive.
WinStar's Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker) continues to lead the North American second-crop sire list (click here) by progeny earnings, and, like Sea the Stars in Europe, in four key black-type categories: three BTW, six BTH, two GSW, and four GSH. These include Cairo Prince, winner of the GII Holy Bull, and Social Inclusion, not yet a black-type winner but third in the GI Twinspires.com Wood Memorial and the GI Preakness, and running at Belmont this weekend. Number two in North America is Taylor Made's Old Fashioned (Unbridled's Song), sire of dual California Grade I winner Fashion Plate.

FRESHMAN SIRES
It's only the beginning of June, but I was surprised to find that already there are 20 NA/EU freshman sires with two or more winners. Fifteen of these, including the three freshmen with four or more winners so far, are in Europe, where there is considerably more early-season 2-year-old racing. Five are in the U.S. The three leaders are all Danzig-line sires, and all showed their best form at two. This is very early-season form, and really only shows precocity, but that does translate to 'quick return' for owners. The leader by progeny earnings so far (click here) is Whitsbury Manor Stud's Showcasing, one of three sons of Oasis Dream to already have two or more winners. Winner of the G2 Gimcrack (6f) at two, Showcasing has sired four winners, including Cappella Sansavero, trained by Ger Lyons in Ireland, who is three-for-three, including a win in the 5-furlong Listed Marble Hill S. a couple of weeks ago. Leader by number of winners is Tally-Ho Stud'sZebedee, a gray son of Invincible Spirit (like Oasis Dream, himself a son of Green Desert) who won six of his seven starts, all over five furlongs, at two. Zebedee has seven winners so far, from an impressive 37 runners. They are sure getting them to the races. Rathasker Stud's Fast Company is a son of Danehill Dancer who won the seven-furlong Acomb S. at York at two for trainer Brian Meehan, and gave New Approach a scare in the 2007 G1 Dewhurst S., with Raven's Pass, Rio de la Plata, and Dark Angel among those behind him. He has five winners so far.
Among the American sires, Spendthrift's 2010 GI Carter H. winner Warrior's Reward, the best colt from Medaglia d'Oro's first crop, burst on to the scene with three winners on the same day last Friday to go straight to the head of the class among North American freshman sires. He's had plenty of admirers, at last year's yearling sales and this year's 2-year-old sales, and they're entitled to be encouraged by this early show of strength. Friday, May 30, 2014, may come to be remembered as “Warrior's Reward Day” around Spendthrift. Also with three winners is Silver City, a fast son of Unbridled's Song who stands at the late Clarence Scharbauer's Valor Farm in Texas. With two winners each are Coolmore'sLookin at Lucky (Smart Strike), and Darley's Desert Party (Street Cry {Ire}) and Midshipman (Unbridled's Song). Lookin at Lucky and Midshipman were both champion two-year-olds. Desert Party was a Grade II winner at two who had some yearlings sell really big last year.

REMEMBERING
Very saddened to learn of the death of John Hills, eldest of legendary trainer Barry Hills's five sons, last weekend at the age of 53. I'd like to add my name to the chorus of those who have been quoted as remembering John as “a thoroughly nice guy.” I had the pleasure to work with him for a few years at the yearling sales, especially at Goffs, where he'd always find a few 'on spec' to sell on once he got back home. He was a very bright guy, knew plenty about pedigrees, understood the nuances of catalogue pages very well, but could converse on non-horse related topics with intelligence, understanding, and a wry sense of humor. He'll be remembered as the trainer of Wind In Her Hair, the dam of Deep Impact, but I'll remember him asking for hot milk with his coffee in the Goffs' canteen. Godspeed, John.
Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.