Bagels, Donuts and Steve Blass

by Steve DeCaspers

While jockeying for elbow room on a cramped Southwest flight home on Monday afternoon, I couldn't help but wonder what the travel experience would have been like had I played as well as John O'Neil who won the $800,000 top prize at the NTRA/Daily Racing Form National Handicapping Championship. 

Would I have changed airlines and upgraded to first class? Or would I have contacted Breeders' Cup partner Sentient Jet and arranged for private transport home? Better yet, could I have bartered an endorsement for flight time? 

Sentient Jet–the exclusive provider of private aviation to Handicapper of the Year Steve DeCaspers. 

Alas, my experience was the exact opposite of the 74-year-old winner. I made 30 bets over the course of 2 days and didn't see a single one of my choices finish in the Top 2. Prior to this weekend, I believed that every NHC participant would be guaranteed at least one story of a bad beat, DQ or a situation when faced with a choice between two contenders, you “zigged” when you should have “zagged.” 

I had none. My NHC was the handicapping equivalent of driving through Kansas–8-hour days without a single exciting moment. If there was a competition where the goal was to find the horse who gets shuffled back early, looms on the turn and flattens to fourth, I would have dominated it. 

While my personal performance at the NHC would best be summarized in chart comments as “Dwelt, raced greenly, failed to menace,” the event itself was a pleasure to be a part of. Here are a couple of reasons why: 

Organization. 
My highest compliments go to the NTRA, Daily Racing Form and Treasure Island for event management in the huge crowds, high stakes and any number of things that could have gone wrong. From registration to the final table, the best of Thoroughbred racing was on display regarding technology, communication and customer service. 

The Horseplayer Vibe. 
While many racing events are about the grandeur of the sport and the regal power and beauty of the thoroughbred, those sentiments are absent at the NHC. Instead, a potent cocktail of strong opinions, sharp personalities and vocal reactions–either in celebration or dismay–creates an environment that the convenience of online play from your living room can never match. 

Competitive Camaraderie. 
As a first-time starter at the NHC, I was surprised by what a social event it was. I observed many happy reunions of players who had clearly formed a friendship at past tournaments, and experienced first hand the strange compulsion to start tracking the play of and rooting for players seated nearby. Despite my heads-down focus on the past performances, even I made some friends and hope to see Wes from Dallas and Al from Miami next year. 

That doesn't mean there weren't some areas for improvement the NHC can and should address for next year. Two issues stood out to me: 

Mandatory Races. 
There's significant debate over which of the many handicapping tournament formats the NHC should take, but the organizers seem settled on some combination of mandatory and optional races. I'm willing to accept the format as it is, but making over half of the 30 contest plays in the first two days on mandatory races felt like overkill. The NHC should examine reducing the number of mandatories to five, which would retain that element of the competition, but also give players more flexibility to choose their spots. 

Las Vegas Mutuel Clerks. 
Although we are encouraged by the NTRA to eschew our ADWs for the weekend and bet through Treasure Island, the process was often painful thanks to the absence of automatic betting machines and the often frustrating lack of experience and urgency displayed by the mutuel clerks. I'm confident that most of the horseplayers in that room would be willing to play through Treasure Island if there were automated machines and a generous rebate/comp policy. I didn't see the former (perhaps it's a union thing?) or hear anything about the latter. I also didn't encounter particularly long lines at the betting windows when I did tempt fate and make a cash wager. Betting machines and 5% rebates would go a long way toward improving handle at the NHC next year. 

No article about my historically bad NHC result (I was one of 7 entries that finished with 0 after two days) would be complete without some sort of examination of my performance. Some angles I've explored include: 

Perfect Thursday Caused Terrible Weekend. 
Like a horse working :57 and change five days before the big race, did I leave my race on the training track with a flawlessly executed “Enjoy Thursday” strategy?  In my life, I've never done anything like the solo ride in Red Rocks Canyon where the worker who dropped me off at the trailhead wasn't exactly brimming with confidence that he'd see me at our rendezvous point two-hours later. I was overwhelmed by every part of it–from the natural beauty of the canyon to the burning in my legs and lungs during the five-mile climb to the 4800-foot peak. The descent was exhilarating and I “ate up well” afterward at Bobby's Burger Palace, leading to a good night sleep on the eve of the tournament. 
The Verdict: Unlikely to have impacted my performance. Maybe if I hadn't cleaned out my feed tub…maybe. 

Day 1 Strikeout Made Day 2 Comeback Impossible. 
Was all lost after my Day 1 performance, making an evaluation of my entire tournament performance moot? 
Oh, how I wish this was true! But after meeting Lawrence Kahlden, a fellow NHC first timer who struck out on Day 1, I know that Day 1 performance is not a predictor of Day 2 results. 

The St. Petersburg, Florida resident and I shared predictable feelings after Day 1. “I was ready to give up,” said Kahlden. “I was so disgusted!” 

Kahlden's Day 2 strategy included a change of scenery and a re-focusing on his strengths. “I decided to go down to the sportsbook by myself where there was better light and read the Form. And I wanted to focus on the races that I really liked–the non-winners of two claimers and the races from my home track of Tampa Bay Downs.” 

Kahlden caught a 9-1 shot in the 3rd at Tampa Bay and, in one of those restricted claiming races from Oaklawn, came up with a 21-1 shot that was up in the final strides. He won the Day 2 prize, vaulted himself into sixth place to begin Day 3, and ultimately finished 12th. Perhaps I should have handicapped with more light? 

The Verdict: No impact. Kahlden's performance proved a Day 1 donut isn't fatal. 

I Have a Horseplayer Verision of Steve Blass Disease. 
A cautionary tale that every Western Pennsylvania-raised boy knows, Steve Blass Disease afflicted its namesake, the ace pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates in the early 1970s. After leading the team to the World Series title in 1971 and another strong season in 1972, Blass began to inexplicably lose control over his ability to throw strikes in 1973. While Secretariat was winning the Triple Crown, Blass–in the physical prime of his career – posted the statistically worst pitching season in baseball's modern era, with a 9.85 ERA and a -4.0 WAR. 

“I had no control over it, nor did I understand it,” said Blass in 2012 on PBS's This American Life. “I would sit in my backyard 2…3…4 o'clock in the morning thinking, 'My God, what's happened to me? What is this? Has someone put a curse on me or something?” 

After going another 0 for 10 in Sunday's consolation tournament (albeit with 2 short priced selections running second), I began to feel like Blass. Fortunately, in Vegas, I had plenty of things to distract me at 3 in the morning. 

Verdict: Highly possible. Are there any horseplayer psychologists out there willing to do pro bono work? 

Regardless of what ailed my horseplaying abilities this weekend, my first NHC experience was an eye-opening one. As expected, the atmosphere was incredible and the competition was fierce. I had viewed making the NHC as an informal goal this year, and only committed to playing a couple of qualifying tournaments in an effort to qualify. Now, my desire to go back is stronger than ever. In fact, there's a qualifying tournament at www.nhcqualify.com next week. 

I wonder if I can get in touch with Steve Blass before spring training starts? Perhaps he would have some advice.