Trainer Bob Baffert has won the GI Santa Anita Derby a half-dozen times since Cavonnier (Batonnier) gave him his first back in 1996. That's the good news. The negative side of that coin is that, with a certain amount of frustration, none of the six winners has managed to go on to GI Kentucky Derby success, though Cavonnier and Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker) were second while Point Given was the beaten favorite behind in 2001.
The silver-haired conditioner has two very legitimate chances in Saturday's race, including the 3-5 morning-line favorite, Kaleem Shah's undefeated TDN Rising Star Dortmund (Big Brown). The burly chestnut has handled everything that's been thrown at him, and his two tough-as-nails defeats of Firing Line (Line of David) in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity and in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. in February look that much better within the context of the Arnold Zetcher runner's 14 3/4-length romp in the GIII Sunland Park Derby Mar. 22. In the absence of that rival in the GII San Felipe S. Mar. 7, Dortmund led throughout to best the progressive Prospect Park (Tapit) by 1 1/4 lengths, with turf-to-dirt Bolo (Temple City) another half-length behind in third.
Pam and Marty Wygod homebred Prospect Park has improved in each of his last four appearances, having finished boldly to win a first-level allowance by better than five lengths Jan. 30 before trimming Dortmund's winning margin down to a little more than a length in the San Felipe despite showing signs of greenness. He figures to appreciate today's extra ground.
TDN Rising Star One Lucky Dane (Lookin at Lucky) gets tested for class as he backs up off just 16 days' rest. After defeating Prospect Park by 9 1/2 lengths to graduate trying the dirt for the first time Oct. 4, the $490,000 Keeneland September graduate was a wide sixth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Nov. 1, but made light work of a Mar. 19 allowance, bolting up by 9 3/4 lengths with a final quarter in :24.14 according to DRF Formulator. He should have early company in the form of the returning TDN Rising Star Bad Read Sanchez (Warrior's Reward), and it will be interesting to see just what Rafael Bejarano aboard One Lucky Dane chooses to do. In any event, those two figure to run away from Dortmund, a fact which will shed some light on the favorite's ability to chase horses.
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