The absence of the 'Grizzly Bear' has not put a damper on Saturday's GI Alabama Stakes, neither for the connections in it nor likely for the betting public, but despite Candied (Twirling Candy) being the class of the field, it's not as cut and dry of an affair.
Currently sitting cosy at 7-5 on the morning line, Candied is deservedly the one to beat as victory in the GI Darley Alcibiades Stakes, a third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, and a gutsy second to 'TDN Rising Star' MGISW Thorpedo Anna (Fast Anna) in the GI Coaching Club American Oaks did not happen by accident.
Candied earned a 99 Beyer for her effort two back June 8 in Monmouth's Lady's Secret Stakes when she overwhelmed MGSW Honor D Lady (Honor Code) by 4 1/2 lengths. That filly would turn around to produce a masterclass of her own next out July 7 in the GII Delaware Handicap, winning by a widening 5 1/2-length margin over a field including last year's GI CCA Oaks winner and Alabama Stakes runner-up, Wet Paint (Blame).
While Candied does need to prove that she can go this distance, her relentless, grinding running style suggests it's in her wheelhouse, and given there's no Thorpedo Anna in here–both literally and figuratively–now is as good a time as ever to secure her second Grade I victory.
Her foes will not make it an easy affair, however, as two daughters of the late Arrogate look to give their sire another Grade I winner to his growing tally–Iowa Oaks victress Just Basking and far outside marker Neon Icon, both of whom have already won at this distance by sizeable margins. The former has steadily been improving with every race, and her win in the Prairie Meadows marque contest produced her highest number to date, a 90 Beyer, which puts her right in the conversation.
Breaking closest to the rail and another hailing from that CCA Oaks in July is Intricate (Gun Runner) for Brendan Walsh, who is no stranger to a Grade I race in Saratoga and what his horse needs to bring to win it. All things considered, she carries the distinction of being the only runner to ever beat Thorpedo Anna thus far–granted as juveniles in the GII Golden Rod at Churchill Downs–and stubbornly kept on last out to take third, although a long way back.
Power Squeeze (Union Rags) dominated early in her career, but had to ramp back into form following a sixth-place effort in the GI Kentucky Oaks, and managed to pick up that all-important Grade I black type when running third in the GI Acorn behind, you guessed it, Thorpedo Anna. The GII Gulfstream Park Oaks victress has a running style shared by many in this field, midpack or further out, which calls into question what kind of pace there will be, especially when California girl MGSW Chatalas (Gun Runner) has shown she has the foot to lead, if necessary.
Lone, or uncontested, speed is hard to reel in, especially when they're good at what they do. Chatalas returns to the Mark Glatt barn after taking the GIII Indiana Oaks last out for Grant Forster by a head, and also producing her best number to date in a string of improving ones.
To round out the field, Wilton Stakes winner Miss Justify (Justify) would need to overcome not only a jump up in distance, but a fairly large one in class as well, to win. Stakes-placed America's Vow (Constitution) hails from the chaotic July 28 Saratoga allowance where horses broke too soon, were declared non-starters, and there was a disqualification for interference, all in one race.
Up-and-Coming Talent Clashes with Proven Form in the Lake Placid…
While there has been much talk of the elephant in the room known as 'shrinking fields' in America, the turf division doesn't have that problem this weekend at Saratoga, as most evident by the competitive 11-runner soiree assembled for the GII Lake Placid Stakes, carded to jump just ahead of Saturday's Alabama.
With a juvenile win in the GI Natalma Stakes and twice placed at the highest level since then, She Feels Pretty (Karakontie {Jpn}) more than provides the vibe as the horse to beat. The aforementioned two placings were a pair of thirds–in 2023 to wrap her season in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies and last out July 6 in the GI Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes behind the heralded GISW Cinderella's Dream (GB) (Shamardal) while just nosed out for second by GSW Segesta (Ghostzapper).
Les Reys en route to victory in the Listed Prix Volterra | Scoop Dyga
Even if that overwhelming favorite had not been in the field back in July, the 1 3/16-miles could've arguably been a step too far, as her connections opt to return their filly to a distance more suited to her prior form. At a mile, she has two victories by over four lengths and a Breeders' Cup placing, which provides a convincing enough argument to stay in the mile/mile and change division.
To her outside are the second and third choices Beautiful Love (Ire) (Siyouni {Fr}) and Dynamic Pricing (Ire) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}), respectively. The former comes into the race with consistency as her calling card, off the board just once and not by much in fourth, back in 2023 in Newmarket's British EBF 40th Anniversary Montrose Fillies Stakes. She too ran into the titan known as Cinderella's Dream back in February–trainer Charlie Applby has no qualms of running stablemates against each other–when they shared the starting gate in a Meydan allowance to start her year. She turned around two weeks later to win at that level by six lengths and the Godolphin homebred resurfaces here having gone unraced since that triumph.
Dynamic Pricing has work to do to prove her win in the GII Edgewood Stakes May 3 at Churchill Downs was not a case of footing she handled better than a struggling field. She had no kick last out in the GI Belmont Oaks Invitational to run seventh, and before her Edgewood win, finished in that spot in the GIII Florida Oaks at Tampa Bay Downs in March.
The last of the European raiders, and who is making a start for new connections, is French Listed Prix Volterra victress Les Reys (Fr) (Penny's Picnic {Ire}), who dons colors for the partnership of West Point Thoroughbreds, Peter Leidel, and Winters Equine LLC for the first time. Moved into the barn of Christophe Clement from Dider Guillemin, she'll have her first chance to make a good impression Stateside for her new team.
Del Mar Oaks Provides Grade I Turf Action in California…
The 3-year-old turf filles on the West Coast will meet for a chance to claim their highest level black type in the GI Del Mar Oaks at the surfside venue and Iscreamuscream (Twirling Candy) is garnering the lion's portion of attention.
Contested at 1 1/8 miles, it's quite telling that she would be the morning line favorite having never gone close to the distance in her three-race career, but having never not found the line first, it's hard to argue with success when it has plenty of speed and a rail spot to compliment it. She likely won't be left to her own devices on the lead with Graded-level newcomer Whiskey Decision (Into Mischief) also coming in with speed, so she'll need to relish this distance if she wants to hold off challengers, late.
Iscreamuscream (orange & white cap) lead home the cavalry charge in the GII San Clemente | Benoit Photo
That being said, the stablemate to her immediate outside Circle of Trust (Union Rags) has to be given a good look considering the fact that she's run at this distance four times now, and went from breaking her maiden to graded placed to a graded winner in the GIII Honeymoon Stakes in the course of three starts. That victory last out June 1 by 1 1/4 lengths will lead to a rematch with SW & GSP Sakura Blossom (Classic Empire) and Sea Dancer (Mastery), those fillies being neighbors in the gate on the far outside.
Medoro (Honor Code) will also prove hard to overlook, and despite her career combined winning margin being less than four lengths in her first four starts, the 5-1 morning line shot will look to rebound from her first defeat last out July 20 in the GII San Clemente Handicap–a race most of this field contested–where Iscreamuscream and Zona Verde (Ire) (Calyx {GB}) had enough of a head start to hold off her furious late charge after a bad trip. East Coast invader MGSW Buchu (Justify) will need a pace to run at in order to produce her best kick and have a chance to win.
It's King's Plate Day in Canada…
The premier race for our neighbors to the north, the Canadian-bred restricted Listed King's Plate Stakes will see not only the best of the Canadian-bred colts racing for the top prize but potentially continuing the tradition of Woodbine Oaks fillies doing well against the boys.
Riding into the race on a three-race streak and with Beyer numbers none of his competition can match, My Boy Prince (Cairo Prince) has been made the commanding 7-5 morning line favorite. After a 6 3/4-length tour de force in the King Corrie Stakes at Woodbine that was awarded a 97 Beyer, the grey has proven impossible to catch and hard to outkick, making it a 'rock and a hard place' situation for anyone hoping to beat him.
He's near untouchable at Woodbine, his lone loss on the same synthetic he'll contest Saturday was on debut when he ran second May 2023, and his two trips into Grade I company on the grass were races where he was run down by Grade I-quality competition. There is no shame in being beaten by MGISW Carson's Run (Cupid) in the local GI Summer Stakes and Grade/Group 1 runners Unquestionable (Fr) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) and Mountain Bear (Ire) (No Nay Never) at the Breeders' Cup.
By the numbers, his closest competition is Essex Serpent (Honor Code), whose win in the GIII Marine Stakes June 29 produced the closest figure of this field at 89. While he's never been off the board, he's got three starts to his name and a big task ahead of him if he wants to beat My Boy Prince. Caitlinhergrtness (Omaha Beach) was caught late on the wire in the similarly restricted Woodbine Oaks, but her form has been steadily improving since making the move to Canada from New York. All things considered, she's in the same boat as everyone else.
On the undercard for the King's Plate, the GII Bet365 King Edward Stakes going a mile on the grass will see the elder statesmen of the division line up for a crack at claiming yet another tally to their careers, headlined by MGSW & MGSW-Brz Filo Di Arianna (Brz) (Drooselmeyer). The Mark Casse-trainee has been made the 4-5 morning line favorite with GSW Cruden Bay (Big Screen) the 7-2 second choice, and MGSW War Bomber (Ire) (War Front) made the 5-1 third selection.
The sprinters will take to the synthetic in the GIII Bold Venture Stakes and, with a gaudy 103 Beyer from his seasonal debut victory in the restricted Pink Lloyd Stakes, Patches O'Houlihan (Reload) seeks to defend his crown against a field of seven. Playmea Tune (Maclean's Music) will look to build on his rise through the ranks and take down that favorite–along with considerably more seasoned rivals–in just his third start, and has been given a 4-1 chance to do it.
Graded Action at the Jersey Shore
Grade I form from the West and East Coasts will clash here in the GIII Philip H. Iselin Stakes at Monmouth Park as MGSW & GISP Il Miracolo (Gun Runner) will take on MG1SW-Arg & GISP Subsanador (Arg) (Fortify) for superiority at the Jersey Shore. On paper, GSW Everso Mischievous (Into Mischief) looks to play spoiler if the top two on the morning line can't produce a run.
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