WinStar TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 17

by T.D. Thornton

The inaugural TDN Derby Top 12 for 2017 dawns with the big guns on the list having earned their berths via promising 2-year-old performances, but they are pursued by an intriguing collection of up-and-comers vying for footholds in the rankings. So far this season–a subplot to limited on-track action–a pelting of wet weather has wreaked havoc with training for California-based sophomores, and repercussions from the ongoing Fair Grounds quarantine could cloud prep-race plans for 3-year-olds aiming for the Louisiana route to Louisville on the first Saturday in May.

1. CLASSIC EMPIRE (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief)

O-John C. Oxley. B-Steven & Brandi Nicholson (KY). T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $475,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 8; 1st, GIII Bashford Manor S., CD, July 2.

Next start: GII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Classic Empire

KY Derby Points: 30

Make no mistake: This is not one of those years in which the  GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner gets granted the top-ranked 3-year-old spot based on polite deference to past accomplishments. Classic Empire has earned the billing and commands respect entering 2017. The presumed 2-year-old champion colt (four-for-five lifetime, only loss when he dislodged the jockey in the GI Hopeful S. at Saratoga) deftly puts himself into races early and is highly rateable while sustaining a keen cruising speed. When he came over the top of the field at the quarter pole in the GI Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland, Classic Empire was unchallenged to the wire under only mild

rousing; in the Breeders' Cup he both pressured the early pace and had the late stamina to win a visually impressive and physically taxing stretch battle. In December, trainer Casse (who does not fling superlatives lightly) called the $475,000 KEESEP purchase “without a doubt the most talented 2-year-old that I've ever trained,” while outlining a battle plan that ideally would include the GII Fountain of Youth S. and GI Florida Derby. Classic Empire won't have to be lights-out brilliant in his 2017 debut to retain his firm hold on the number one ranking. But with such lofty expectations, he must win while demonstrating obvious forward momentum in order to keep perceptions of vulnerability at bay.

2. MCCRAKEN (c, Ghostzapper">Ghostzapper—Ivory Empress, by Seeking the Gold)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY). T-Ian R. Wilkes.

Last Start: 1st, GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 26

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 30

Next start: Possible for either GII Holy Bull S. or GII Swale S., both at GP, Feb. 4

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 10

The undefeated McCraken (all three wins at Churchill Downs) is a lean, professional-looking router who possesses the dangerous combination of being a deep closer with a lively turn of foot. He was an 8-1 outlier when winning the one-turn mile Street Sense S. while seven wide Oct. 30, but surprised no one as the 4-5 favorite when besting 11 rivals in the

GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 26. In that race, McCraken (named after a small town in Kansas) caught the eye with his professional demeanor: he rated kindly to the back of the pack, advanced when ready three-eighths out, looped the group with a methodical march, then gamely split rivals at the quarter pole while opening up stylishly through the lane. Trainer Wilkes has indicated a desire to take a patient approach with this still-developing 'TDN Rising Star,' but a bullet five-furlong breeze Jan. 13 at Palm Meadows Training Center could be a signal that McCraken is eager for a more aggressive assignment.

3. MASTERY (c, Candy Ride (Arg)—Steady Course, by Old Trieste)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Cheyenne Stables, LLC. B-Stone Farm (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $425,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GI Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity, LRC, Dec. 10

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Bob Hope S., DMR, Nov. 19

Next start: Uncommitted

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Mastery

KY Derby Points: 10

Hype was high for this tall, long-striding $425,000 KEESEP yearling long before the colt made it to the races and Mastery has lived up to his advance billing by winning all three of his lifetime starts, including a commanding 7 1/4-length victory as the 1-5 favorite in the GI

Los Alamitos Futurity. The 'TDN Rising Star' is the top 3YO currently campaigning in California (although the Left Coast crop does not represent the deepest segment of the division at this juncture of the season), and Mastery's natural, efficient speed straight from the starting stalls is his most formidable weapon. Jockey Mike Smith credited Baffert's use of blinkers in the Futurity with helping to keep the colt focused, because Mastery did try to coast a bit once he put away the early competition and grabbed the lead all by himself. Yet watching him subsequently shift into an extra gear under left-handed urging while swatting away a late challenge from 23-1 closer Irap (Tiznow), gives the impression that Mastery's raw speed has the potential to be buttressed by a sizable reserve of staying power. It will be Baffert's job to sync those two traits seamlessly if Mastery is to flourish as he matures.

4. MO TOWN (c, Uncle Mo—Grazie Mille, by Bernardini)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Team D. B-John D. Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock (KY). T-Anthony W. Dutrow. Sales History: $200,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 26

Next start: Possible for GII Gotham S., Aqu, Mar. 4

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Mo Town

KY Derby Points: 10

At this early stage in the season, spot number four marks a fairly clear line of demarcation separating the top trio from the remainder of contenders, and Mo Town lays claim to this ranking based on his proficient, workmanlike annexation of the GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct in November. That race was both his first two-turn venture and stakes attempt, and the Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) colt settled behind a breakaway pacemaker, reeled him in on the backstretch, stalked while slowing the tempo, then opened up under steady urging. After the race, trainer Dutrow marveled at his 'TDN Rising Star's level of cardio fitness, noting that his charge was unfazed and unwinded in the winner's circle. There's an old-school cachet about winning the nine-furlong Remsen, traditionally the final distance stakes of the year for top-level 2-year-olds in New York. But a glance at the list of winners is somewhat surprising in that only three horses in the last 53 years–Thunder Gulch, Go For Gin and Pleasant Colony–have successfully parlayed the Remsen into a win in the GI Kentucky Derby.

5. AMERICAN ANTHEM (c, Bodemeister–Indy's Windy, by A.P. Indy)

O-WinStar Farm, LLC, S F Bloodstock, LLC & China Horse Club. B-WinStar Farm (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $180,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $435,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR.

Last Start: 2nd, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 7

Next start: Uncommitted

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 4

Yes, Gormley (Malibu Moon) beat American Anthem in the  GIII Sham S. at Santa Anita, but they are flipped in the rankings here because Baffert's $435,000 Bodemeister (Empire Maker) colt left the impression there is plenty more horsepower under the hood that we have not seen yet. The top two Sham finishers were a bob apart, but 13 lengths in front of all other rivals at the wire, and American Anthem was visually impressive considering he was stepping up off a debut maiden win to two-turn stakes company. Brawny and aggressive, he appeared to have no problem with being pinned on the inside by a more experienced foe over a sloppy/sealed track, and when headed by Gormley, he kicked again with a determination that belies his light seasoning. “For only his second time out, that was pretty impressive,” jockey Mike Smith said after the race. “If we'd been on the outside…I think that probably would've helped a little bit getting beat [a head].” Baffert also trained the colt's sire, who took the GI Arkansas Derby path to being the runner-up in both the Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness S., making one wonder if a trip to Hot Springs in April might be in American Anthem's future.

6. GORMLEY (c, Malibu Moon—Race to Urga, by Bernstein)

O-Mr. & Mrs. Jerome Moss. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 7.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Oct. 6

Next start: Possible for GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 11

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gormley

KY Derby Points: 20

Gormley's rank in the pecking order depends a lot on how one views his seventh-place clunker in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which was run over his home track at Santa Anita. If you cross out that race (he did stumble at the break), he's won all three of his other starts, and it's worth noting he carried five more pounds when outlasting American Anthem in his spirited Sham S. victory. Although a bit washy entering the gate, Gormley was all business in the Sham, pressing an aggressive pacemaker while looking nimble and relaxed over the off going. Neither colt wanted to give in while alternating the lead through the lane, finishing a pole in front of their overmatched rivals. “It didn't surprise me how well he broke out of there today,” trainer Shirreffs said after the race. “When he's feeling good, he breaks quickly and already running.”

7. PRACTICAL JOKE (c, Into Mischief—Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor)

O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. & William H. Lawrence. B-Whispering Oaks (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $135,000 Ylg '15 KEEJAN; $240,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 3rd, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Hopeful S., SAR, Sept. 5; 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 8.

Next start: Uncommitted

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 14

Practical Joke was three-for-three entering the Breeders' Cup, but he was jostled at the start and got fanned five wide leaving the clubhouse turn before regrouping well enough to finish third behind presumed champ Classic Empire and the since-retired Not This Time (Giant's Causeway). He ended up 4 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field, and it's interesting to note that only two months after the Juvenile, only four colts from that 11-horse championship field have managed to make this list. The two-time Grade I winner (Hopeful and Champagne S.) is wintering at Palm Meadows training center in Florida with an expected return to serious training by the end of this month.

8. GUNNEVERA (c, Dialed In—Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled)

O-Peacock Racing Stables, LLC. B-Brandywine Farm & Stephen Upchurch (KY). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $16,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot S., DED, Nov. 19.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 14

Next start: GII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gunnevera

KY Derby Points: 10

Gunnevera is certainly the overachiever of the bunch, and while fun to root for from that perspective, one gets the feeling he is going to have to spend his winter and spring constantly proving he belongs with Triple Crown-caliber horses if he is to wind up in the starting gate for the Churchill Downs feature on the first Saturday in May. A $16,000 KEESEP bargain who has now bankrolled $771,000 in purses, it took the gangly Dialed In (Mineshaft) colt three tries to break his maiden at the Gulfstream summer meet, but he springboarded from his first career win to a 9-1 upset of the

GII Saratoga Special S. in his next try. Two outings later, he won the $1-million GIII Delta Downs Jackpot, loping along at the back by his lonesome before inhaling the field on a tight-turn (six furlongs) track with a five-wide sweep before opening up at will. He seemed a tad unfocused through the lane, but so long as he got a learning experience out of that 5 3/4-length romp, Gunnevera can build off that effort. He'll need to, because his scheduled next start in the Holy Bull is shaping up to be a stern test.

9. EL AREEB (c, Exchange Rate—Feathered Diamond, by A.P. Indy)

'TDN Rising Star' O-M M G Stables, LLC. B-Dixiana Farms, LLC (KY). T-Cathal A. Lynch. Sales History: $100,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $340,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Jerome S., AQU, Jan. 2

Accomplishments Include: 1st, James F. Lewis III S., LRL, Nov. 19

Next start: GIII Withers S., Aqu, Feb. 4

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 10

After an 11 1/4-length trouncing of the GIII Jerome S. field earlier this month, Maryland-based trainer Lynch, who annually gets a string of 20 or so 2-year-olds to condition, praised this $340,000 OBSMAR grad as “probably the best horse I've trained in 20 years.” Defeated when well-backed at both Parx and Laurel in his first two tries, 'TDN Rising Star' El Areeb blossomed with back-to-back, open-length sprint wins against maiden and $100,000 stakes company over his home track before dictating the pace and winning for fun in the Jerome. As he pursues a New York prep path to the Derby, it remains to be seen whether that big-margin blowout will hold up: El Areeb was only lightly pressured by even-money chalk Takaful (Bernardini) in the Jerome, and when the fave caved and struggled home last with no apparent excuse, there were really no other legitimate contenders swooping in to offer fresh, serious challenges to the runaway roan.

10. LOOKIN AT LEE (c, Lookin At Lucky–Langara Lass, by Langfuhr)

O-L and N Racing. B-Ray Hanson (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $70,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 4th, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Ellis Park Juvenile S., ELP, Aug. 6

Next start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 10

Lookin At Lee has six races under his belt. Only two of them are wins, and both came at Ellis Park last summer, which doesn't exactly match the prep-race profile of a typical Derby winner. But when you consider that he has drawn the extreme outside post for both of his Grade I forays, and that he finished second and fourth behind top-ranked Classic Empire in both of those efforts, this $70,000 KEESEP buy becomes intriguing enough to merit inclusion on this list. Trainer Asmussen reports that his Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) colt is progressing well at Fair Grounds coming off his Breeders' Cup freshening, and is about a month away from a race.

11. FACT FINDING (c, The Factor–Sweet Belle, by Deputy Commander)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith & Stonestreet Stables, LLC. B-Nursery Place & Partners (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $100,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; 350,000gns 2yo '16 TATAPR.

Last Start: 1st, Smooth Air S., GP, Dec. 10

Next start: GII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4

Equineline PPs

Fact Finding has won at Saratoga, Keeneland and Gulfstream over three different distances while building nice 2-year-old foundation via a maiden/allowance/$75,000 stakes progression. He won by seven lengths in a one-turn mile over sloppy going in the Smooth Air S. last time out, but will have his work cut out for him against more formidable Holy Bull S. foes on the first Saturday in February. Pletcher said on Steve Byk's radio show last week that the 'TDN Rising Star' is getting bigger, stronger, taller, and more aggressive in his training; a sharp performance in his first two-turn test could have him leapfrogging several horses above him on this list that are being more patiently handled.

12. UNCONTESTED (c, Tiz Wonderful–Galileo's Star, by Lil E. Tee)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Robert V. LaPenta & Harry T. Rosenblum.

B-Richard Forbush (KY). T-Wayne M. Catalano. Sales History: $20,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 16

Next start: Likely for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 20

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 11

Uncontested jumped right into the bridle and rolled through lively splits in the Jan. 16 Smarty Jones S. to assert himself as a legitimate threat on the Arkansas path to the Kentucky Derby. When challenged by eventual runner-up Petrov (Flatter) on the far turn, Uncontested was still hand-ridden, while Petrov was being scrubbed upon vigorously. Turning for home, when jockey Channing Hill did finally shake up the 'TDN Rising Star' for the short Oaklawn stretch, the Tiz Wonderful (Tiznow) colt leveled off fluidly before wandering slightly in the final few jumps to the wire. Breaking his maiden on debut at Keeneland Oct. 19, Uncontested narrowly missed the 6 1/2-furlong track record, and trainer Catalano attributed a subsequent fourth-place try in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. to getting “killed” by post 12.

“The horse has got natural speed, so obviously on this kind of [wet] racetrack, you want to use that speed, you don't want dirt in their face when they're not a real seasoned horse,” Catalano said in an Oaklawn post-race interview, “I told Channing, you know, at the end if he [was leading and could try to] peek under his arm, just ease up on him. We don't want to do too much.”

On the Bubble: Guest Suite (Quality Road) was four deep through the turn in the Street Sense S. at Churchill Downs while beaten only five lengths by McCraken back in October, and displayed a nifty turn of foot when seeking the lead in an optional claimer/first-level allowance score (also at Churchill) by open lengths on Nov. 26. 'TDN Rising Star' Battalion Runner (Unbridled's Song) was dominant enough in a Dec. 31 Gulfstream maiden trouncing to stretch into a stakes try next time out for Pletcher, and stablemates and fellow 'Rising Stars' Faja (Bodemeister) and Malagacy (Shackleford) might not be far behind…Another to earn the 'Rising Star' moniker is Beach Bum (Arch), a $400,000 KEESEP Baffert trainee, dismantled a deep field of babies on debut at Santa Anita Nov. 6 and took a subsequent hit on the William Hill Derby future book, where he is currently listed at 25-1…New Jersey-bred 'Rising Star' Irish War Cry (Curlin) is a 30-1 future book attention-getter based on a maiden and $100,000 stakes score in Maryland for trainer H. Graham Motion… Silver Dust (Tapit), a $510,000 OBSMAR buy who won his maiden at Churchill in November with plenty in reserve, missed some training because of winter weather but recently resurfaced on the Oaklawn worktab with no specific next race in mind, according to trainer Randy Morse.

For more on the WinStar Derby Top 12, including photos, videos and past performances, click here.