By Bill Oppenheim
Even as I write this, the sale continues with Book 4 Day 1, Tuesday. But last year, for example, over 80% of the complete sale's gross had been realized in the first three books. This year, 2,227 yearlings–almost exactly half the total number catalogued–were catalogued in the first three books, consisting of seven sessions over eight days, same as last year.
In most years, once Book 1 is finished, the succeeding books tend to follow a similar pattern to each other, usually featuring a big jump–10 percentage points or so–in the clearance rate from the catalogue.
However, this year Book 2 displayed certain characteristics, including a big fall in that clearance rate, which made it seem less like Book 3 and more like Book 1. Over three days in Book 1 last week, 346 yearlings sold, a 22% drop from the 443 sold in Book 1 last year. The gross was down $14 million, a 10% drop from last year, but the average rose by 15%, from $303,072 last year to $347,471.
In Book 2, last Friday and Saturday, 800 yearlings were catalogued, down 1% from the 806 catalogued last year. This year 466 were sold, 11% fewer than in the 2015 Book 2. The gross declined by $1.7 million, or about 2.5% less than last year; in both Book 1 and Book 2, though, the decline in gross was less than we had projected, as a result of which the Book 2 average increased, by 10%, to $147,701. To that point, the number sold in Book 1 declined by 22% and the number sold in Book 2 declined by 11%, while the average increased by 15% in Book 1, and by 10% in Book 2. But the clearance rate from the catalogue in Book 2 declined from 65% last year to 58% this year, much closer to the 57% clearance rate in Book 1.
It wasn't until Book 3, Sunday and Monday, that the metrics really started to match or improve compared to last year. In last year's Book 3, 536 yearlings, which was 66.7% of those catalogued, sold for $40,625,000, an average of $75,844. At the close of play Monday 555 yearlings had sold in this year's Book 3, for a gross of $44,178,500, an average of $79,600. The number sold was 3% higher than last year's Book 3; the gross was 8% higher; and the average was 5% higher. The 67.6% clearance rate from the catalogue was also higher than last year's Book 3.
With such declines in the number sold in Book 1 and Book 2, the overall number of 1,367 sold in Books 1-3 was 11% lower than the 1,504 sold in the corresponding books last year. The gross declined 5%, or about $12 million, from $245.5 million last year to $233.6 million this year, while the average is up nearly 5%, from $163,278 in 2015 to $170,947 in Books 1-3 this year. The clearance rate from the catalogue dropped 3% overall in the first three books, from 64.4% last year to 61.4% this year.
Among the sires, Gainesway's Tapit (31 sold/53 cat) and Claiborne's War Front (19 sold/33 cat) are way out in front with averages of $639,839 and $633,947, respectively, each selling 58% of those catalogued, just about the average for Book 1, considering sires with 4+ sold. Three sires averaged in the 300's: Coolmore's Galileo (4/8, $393,750), who will of course have many more catalogued in the upcoming European sales; and fellow (like Tapit) F2006 sires, WinStar's Speightstown (26/51, $329,115) and Darley's Medaglia d'Oro (33/56, $305,424). Three more averaged $250k+ in Books 1-3: WinStar's Pioneerof the Nile (33/56, $275,606); Hill 'n' Dale's Curlin (30/44, $262,333); and Coolmore Ashford's late Scat Daddy, who led all sires with 51 sold (80 cat), for an average of $260,922.
Among first-year F2015 sires with their first yearlings selling, Claiborne's Orb (Malibu Moon), as expected, led the way, with 36/54 sold for an average of $159,556, followed by: Ashford's Declaration of War (War Front) (11/19, $147,727); Ashford's Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday) (24/31, 77% of cat, $136,958); WinStar's Paynter (Awesome Again) (11/26, $129,273); Darley's Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux {Brz}) (31/48, $118,661); Hill 'n' Dale's Violence (Medaglia d'Oro) (23/35, $116,130); Spendthrift's Jimmy Creed (Distorted Humor) (6/9, $110,833); Calumet's Oxbow (Awesome Again) (6/8, $99,167); and Adena Springs' Point of Entry (Dynaformer) (14/22, $98,571). Click here to see an alphabetical list of all sires which sold in Books 1-3.
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