Bill Oppenheim: Book 1: Strong Finish

In our column of August 24 (click here), we postulated that if 60% of the 607 yearlings catalogued in Keeneland September Book 1 sold for an average of $300,000–approximately the Book 1 average in 2014-2015–our target for the Book 1 gross was $111-million. As there were 117 fewer yearlings (16%) catalogued in Book 1, we were projecting a $23-million decline in the Book 1 gross.

After the first two days–$34.5-million for 108 sold Monday and $38-million for 119 sold on Tuesday, for a two-day average of $319,000, and one seven-figure yearling each day – it looked like the $111-million figure was likely to be close to the mark. Then came Wednesday–whole different sale. Six yearlings sold for $1-million or more, including the sale-topping $3-million Scat Daddy half-brother to Beholder and Into Mischief bought by M.V. Magnier from the Clarkland Farm of one of the most popular couples in Kentucky, Fred and Nancy Mitchell; and a $2-million Tapit half-brother to Mucho Macho Man bought in partnership by Bridlewood Farm and M.V. Magnier. The day's gross was $47-million, and the average broke $400,000 as 119 sold for an average of $401,134.

So, the overall picture at the end of three days of selling in Book 1: of 607 catalogued, a high 18% were withdrawn, and 499 went through the ring. A total of 346 were sold–almost 100 fewer than the 443 sold last year–for a total of $120,225,000, so only a 10% drop in gross, as the average for those sold (22% fewer than last year) rose 15%, from $303,072 in 2015, to $347,471 this year. So the sale ran 8% higher than expectations, though they had to sell almost 100 fewer horses to achieve that, as the clearance rate from the catalogue dipped from 61% to 57%. Nonetheless the indicators heading into tomorrow's Book 2 and beyond look very strong, and certainly Book 2 consignors were thronged with lookers when we were in the barns yesterday. The fact that we expected the gross to drop by $23-million and it actually only dropped by $14-million: big statement by the market.

The leading sires, in a virtual dead-heat, at least with five or more sold, were Gainesway's Tapit, who had 28 sell of 45 catalogued (62%) for an average of $662,857, and Claiborne's War Front, who had 18 of 31 sell (58%) for an average of $659,167. Three other sires posted averages of $400,000+ with five or more sold: WinStar's Speightstown, 15/28 sold (53%) for a $428,667 average; Adena Springs's Ghostzapper, 7/12 sold (58%), for an average of $417,857; and Ashford's late Scat Daddy, 24/35 (a relatively high 68% sold), who averaged $410,833, including, of course, the $3-million sale-topper. But he would have averaged almost $300,000 even without the $3-million colt.

Though, as we wrote about last week, there was very small representation of F2015 sires with their first crop of yearlings, things went pretty much as expected among those. Nominally Coolmore Ashford's Shanghai Bobby had the highest average, which was $412,500 with two sold, including a spectacular $575,000 colt sold by Padraig Campion on Tuesday. The other top three North American first-crop yearling sires each had six sell: Claiborne's Orb ($240,833 average); Ashford's Declaration of War ($191,667 average); and Darley's Animal Kingdom ($182,500). Supporters of all four have reason to be heartened going into the 'back books.'

Backchat: War Front vs The Population: Ages of A Runners

By Emily Plant

Tapit and War Front, the two most expensive sires in North America in 2016, also had the leading averages in Book 1 of Keeneland September. The buyers of these expensive War Fronts apparently weren't deterred by the evidently widespread market perception that War Front just isn't all he's cracked up to be, particularly that his runners “don't train on.” In order to truly assess the claims that his runners don't perform past age two, we analyzed the data on the age distribution of War Front's A Runners. In this case, we count each A Runner for each year they qualify as an A, meaning that runners can be counted multiple times if they perform in several years.

Instead of speculating or basing observations on a limited number of cases, the data reveals the truth: War Front is a spectacular sire of 2yo's, with 21.8% of his A Runners becoming A's at age 2, compared to the population average of 9.3%. He's not any less likely to have A Runners at three years old and up compared to the population–he's slightly above the average for 3-year-olds; and slightly below for 4-year-olds and older, but these differences are not statistically significant. In sum, he's not less likely to have his good horses perform at age three and up, but he is much more likely to have good ones at age two. As of Sept. 14, he has six 2-year-old black-type winners and four 2-year-old graded-stakes winners, and is the leading sire of 2-year-old earnings in North America and Europe–go ahead and keep your hand in the air.