Keeneland September Sires (All)

In spite of a little uptick at Doncaster's (now Goffs UK) two-day Premier sale last week, the yearling sales so far this year, in Europe as well as in North America, are struggling to hold their own, suggesting supply exceeds demand. There is plenty of evidence that it is strongest at the top and weakest at the bottom, but it takes fewer new or returning buyers to influence the top tier, because, though hugely influential, it is relatively small. It's very important that there is still relatively stable demand for quality; that there are significant, relatively new players in the top tier, and that syndicates and pinhookers still form an important part of the buying 'squads' (you thought I was going to say 'buying bench' there, didn't you? Never!).

In terms of overall enthusiasm and the prosperity of the Thoroughbred business in an international context, there's no question there has been, and will continue to be, a shift to the East: Australasia, Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, maybe China, eventually, and so on. Naturally, people who own racehorses are for the most part going to want to own them locally to where they live; yet, some also realize that they can be active on the biggest international stages in Europe and North America. Things may look different 20 years from now, but for the moment the world's best racing is still centered in these two places: Europe and North America. The best horses in the world still, overwhelmingly, come from Europe and North America, so to the extent these markets are sluggish in an international context, opportunities exist for owners with international ambitions to come into these markets when they are, relatively speaking of course, somewhat discounted. Short version: Buyers' Market; opportunity knocks.

TDN's Heather Anderson compiled the list (click here) of 241 stallions which are represented by 4,479 yearlings catalogued for the 13 days (6 books) of the upcoming Keeneland September Yearling Sale. This figure represents about 20% of the estimated 2015 North American foal crop of 22,000. Ten years ago, in 2006, which was probably the recent peak of the NA/EU Thoroughbred marketplace, there were 5,161 yearlings catalogued to Keeneland September, about 13.5% of the foal crop, which totaled 38,104. Though the foal crop peaked that year, the Keeneland September Sale still grew, to 5,553 catalogued in 2007, and 5,555 catalogued in 2008. But it was in 2006 that John Ferguson spent almost $60-million of the September Sale total of $399,791,800. The September Sale still totaled almost $328-million in 2008, but in 2009 the gross plunged by over $136-million, to just $191.8-million. After languishing around $220-million in 2011-2012, in 2013 the North American market actually recovered, and the gross gained over $60-million, to $280-million, and it has been within $1.5-million of that figure in the two years since. Last year there were 2,745 yearlings sold at Keeneland September, for a total of $281,496,100, and an average of $102,548.

In the last 10 years, then, the percentage of the North American foal crop which is catalogued for Keeneland September has increased by 50%, from 13.5% in 2005, to 20.3% (of the 2015 foal crop) this year. The foal crop has declined by 42% since 2006 but the number catalogued to Keeneland September had declined by 20% by 2015, and with a 7.5% increase in the number catalogued this year, the decline in September Sale numbers is now down to 13% since 2006. This surely indicates that the decline in the foal crop is much greater in the bottom ranges (those which wouldn't be sold at Keeneland September). With 16% (117) fewer yearlings in Book 1, there is all the more supply (432 more yearlings, 12% more than last year) in Books 2-6. Demand will be high for 'the ones they want'–but how many will that be?

As we indicated last week, younger sires are much more strongly represented in Books 2-6 than in Book 1. Thirty sires have 40+ catalogued in the 'back books': of those thirty, eight are represented by their first crop of yearlings; six (first 2-year-olds) by their second crop; two (first 3-year-olds) by their third crop; and four (first 4-year-olds, first foals 2012) by their fourth crop. All together 20 of the 30 sires with 40+ catalogued in Books 2-6 had their first foals 2012-2015; 10 of the 30 had their first foals in 2011 or earlier.

Of the eight first-crop sires, Hill 'n' Dale's Violence, the son of Medaglia d'Oro who won the 2012 GI Cashcall Futurity then was second to Orb in the 2013 GII Fountain of Youth before injury forced his retirement, leads all sires with 71 Book 2-6 yearlings catalogued. Claiborne's Data Link, the 2012 GI Maker's 46 Mile winner from War Front's first crop, is next, with 59 Book 2-6 yearlings catalogued, ahead of Darley's Animal Kingdom (54); Claiborne's Orb (51); and WinStar's 2012 GI Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy (50), the A.P. Indy half-brother to champion Will Take Charge and to the dam of champion Take Charge Brandi. Coolmore Ashford's unbeaten 2012 2-year-old champion Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday) has 48 catalogued, as does WinStar's GI Haskell winner Paynter (Awesome Again). Taylor Made's 2013 GI Donn H. winner Graydar (Unbridled's Song) has 40 in the back books, while three other first-crop yearling sires–Spendthrift's Flat Out (Flatter) and Jimmy Creed (Distorted Humor), and WinStar's Overanalyze (Dixie Union) just miss this particular top 25, with 39 Book 2-6 yearlings catalogued each.

WinStar's Bodemeister (Empire Maker) and Lane's End's The Factor (War Front) top 'freshman' sires (of racehorses)–those with their first 2-year-olds–with 64 'back books' yearlings each. Lane's End's Union Rags (Dixie Union) has 57. Gainesway's Tapizar (Tapit) has 45; WinStar's Gemologist (Tiznow) 42, and Airdrie's Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway) has 41 catalogued in Books 2-6. Among sires with their first 3-year-olds (usually referred to as 'second-crop' sires, though these are their third crops of yearlings), Ashford's sensational Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) and Claiborne's Trappe Shot (Tapit) have 46 each in the back books. Among 'third-crop' sires with their first 4-year-olds racing and fourth crops of yearlings selling, WinStar's Super Saver (Maria's Mon) has 59 catalogued; Lane's End's Quality Road (Elusive Quality) has 45; Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway), who stood at Taylor Made but was sold to Japan, has 44 catalogued; and Claiborne's Blame (Arch) has 42. Then, among the 10 older sires, F2010 sires Midnight Lute and Into Mischief both made bright starts in 2013 resulting in bigger books of mares in 2014 and 63 and 62 'back books' yearlings, respectively, in 2016. Candy Ride has 53, More Than Ready 52, Tiznow and Congrats 51 each, Scat Daddy 49, Kitten's Joy 48, Lemon Drop Kid 47, and Street Sense 43–these totals in Books 2-6.

With 35 yearlings in Book 1 and 49 thereafter, Scat Daddy is the overall leader in total Keeneland September yearlings catalogued, with 84. As he died last December just as he was preparing to cover his first six-figure stud fee book of mares, you can bet there is going to be fierce demand for the better models by him, but as they were sired on a $30,000 stud fee there may not be so many with blockbuster pedigrees; however, he got where he is at this sort of stud fee level and below. Bodemeister has 10 catalogued in Book 1 so has the second-highest number of yearlings catalogued overall (74), while Violence is third, with 72 (just one in Book 1). Ramsey Farm's top US turf sire Kitten's Joy has 23 in Book 1 and 71 catalogued total, and the other sire with as many as 60 catalogued but has not been otherwise mentioned is WinStar's Pioneerof the Nile, who has 23 in Book 1, 37 thereafter, for exactly 60 total.

Other prominent sires with 40+ catalogued throughout the whole sale which haven't otherwise yet been mentioned: Spendthrift's Malibu Moon (58); Darley's Medaglia d'Oro (57); Gainesway's Tapit and WinStar's Speightstown (53 each); Darley's Bernardini (50); Hill 'n' Dale's Curlin and Ashford's Giant's Causeway (49 each); Darley's deceased Street Cry and WinStar's Distorted Humor (45 each); and Adena Springs's Ghostzapper (43 each). I'm tempted to say something flippant, like “the 41 sires with 40+ yearlings catalogued each comprise a total of 2,314 yearlings–51% of the catalogue”; but it's also the case that another 200 sires make up the other half. A lot to choose from for buyers; a lot to find new homes for sellers.