Considering the Case Against Nyquist

Ten foes and the 9 1/2 furlongs of Saturday's GI Preakness S. stand between GI Kentucky Derby hero Nyquist (Uncle Mo) and another Triple Crown try in three more weeks in New York. While one could certainly envision ways in which the unbeaten juvenile champion could be upset, most of those knocks fail to withstand serious scrutiny.

Argument #1: There is an abundance of early speed signed on here, and Nyquist tends to race on or near the lead.

With six other rivals having been in the first or second position at the first call of their respective last races, the Preakness is almost certain to feature a very quick early tempo. But Nyquist is not a need-the-lead type, as evidenced by his Eclipse-clinching victory in the Oct. 31 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The Reddam Racing colorbearer was as far back as eighth early behind a crowded pace in that affair, and was even several spots behind now deep closer and familiar foe Exaggerator (Curlin) before kicking into gear and besting that one's stablemate Swipe (Birdstone). Exaggerator was fourth.

Argument #2: Two weeks between the Derby and Preakness is a short turnaround.

While higher-class horses in the modern era rarely return in two weeks, note that there was only a 19-day gap between Nyquist's wins in last September's GI Del Mar Futurity and GI FrontRunner S. Plus the two-week gap was no issue for any of the last four winning Derby favorites–Big Brown (Boundary) (2008), California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) (2014) and American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) (2015). Trainer Doug O'Neill has also proven plenty adept at keeping a Derby winner in form for two weeks–Reddam's I'll Have Another (Flower Alley) earned a significant Beyer Speed Figure top of 109 when completing the Derby/Preakness double in 2012.

“He was pretty good before the Derby and he's pretty good now,” O'Neill told the Pimlico notes team. “He had five weeks to prepare from the Florida Derby to the Kentucky Derby. This is a quick turnaround. He's showing all signs that he's as good as ever.”

Argument #3: There's wet weather in the forecast, and sloppy tracks sometimes yield surprising results.

Nyquist has never raced on a muddy or sloppy surface, but the Gulfstream ground was labeled “good” when he aired in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby Apr. 2. His dam also never tried a wet strip, but sire Uncle Mo earned a gaudy 118 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in the 2011 GII Kelso H. over a muddy Belmont strip.

Argument #4: Exaggerator was gaining on Nyquist in the Derby, and the circumstances of the Preakness could help the Keith Desormeaux trainee bridge the 1 1/4-length gap.

This is likely the strongest case against Nyquist, as late-running Exaggerator would certainly benefit from a meltdown and is at least more proven on a wet strip. He bided his time far off a hot pace in the GI Santa Anita Derby, only to splash home a 6 1/4-length victor, earning a 103 Beyer–the same figure Nyquist received for the Derby. But Nyquist had already beaten him three times prior to that, was right up on a solid Derby pace and never let Exaggerator get anywhere close to him on the gallop out.

Argument #5: Several of the “new shooters” have upside, and could produce a performance that beats the champ. Stradivari (Medaglia d'Oro) has won a pair of nine-panel races by a combined 25 3/4 lengths, and earned 'TDN Rising Star' status for his 14 1/2-length drubbing of Keeneland allowance foes Apr. 17. Collected (City Zip) has finished worse than second just once in his six-race career, and was a convincing winner of the GIII Lexington S. last time out Apr. 16.

The Preakness is almost always won by a horse coming out of the Derby. The last time it wasn't was in 2009, when GI Kentucky Oaks heroine Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) may very well have found herself in the winner's circle in Louisville if her connections had decided to wait one more day.

Bob Baffert, trainer of Collected and, of course, last year's Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, has six wins in the Preakness, but none with a horse who didn't compete in the Derby. “I've come in here a little weird many years,” Baffert joked. “I know what it feels like. I've been through it so many times. It's the first time coming here after a Triple Crown. It was weird going to the Derby, a little bit. It's something that I'm just coming in here with a horse that didn't run in the Derby. I've never won it with a horse that I didn't run in the Derby. So it's a different feel. It's uncharted waters.”