Sussex Battle Of The Dubawis After Rosallion Defection

After the withdrawal of leading 3-year-old miler Rosallion (Ire) (Blue Point {Ire}), Wednesday's G1 Qatar Sussex Stakes at Goodwood has suddenly and drastically changed shape with the race's two main protagonists now fairly equally-rated sons of Dubawi (Ire). If the 3-year-olds hold sway over their three older rivals as the betting suggests in this GI Breeders' Cup Mile qualifier, this will come down to a good old-fashioned Coolmore-Godolphin face-off between Aidan O'Brien's Henry Longfellow (Ire) and Charlie Appleby's Notable Speech (GB).

Both TDN Rising Stars with contrasting profiles, they have shown enough to suggest that last year's runner-up Facteur Cheval (Ire) (Ribchester {Ire}) will have his work cut out to give away eight pounds weight-for-age. While Henry Longfellow was winning the G2 Futurity Stakes and G1 Vincent O'Brien National Stakes at two, Notable Speech had yet to see a racecourse but after some impressive performances on Kempton's Polytrack during the winter and spring Godolphin's homebred surged to prominence with a win on his sensational turf debut in Newmarket's G1 2,000 Guineas.

Denied the chance to contest the Guineas due to the overwhelming presence of stablemate City Of Troy (Justify), Henry Longfellow was instead sent to ParisLongchamp and suffered a cramped experience stuck in a pocket for the majority of the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains. Their paths met in the G1 St James's Palace Stakes and this time the Ballydoyle colt had ample space to express himself only to be run down by the emphatic and brilliant winner Rosallion.

Notable Speech was only seventh at Royal Ascot, where the soft early pace led to his undoing. Whereas at Newmarket he was able to benefit from the strong fractions and close past a Rosallion who had already used up his unrivalled acceleration, Ascot was the other side of the coin and his prospects here will probably depend on how quick the tempo is in the early stages. What we did discover there was the fact that Henry Longfellow is a quick animal, with his closing two furlongs of :23.24 only just outside that recorded at the meeting by Baaeed (GB) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) in the Queen Anne two years earlier.

If Henry Longfellow is allowed his own way up front, it could spell doom for the remainder and Ryan Moore will know exactly when to press the button so it could be that William Buick has no option other than to go forward on his chief rival to avoid the tactical compromise he suffered at Ascot.

Aidan O'Brien is in confident mood. “We always thought he was a special horse and we were over the moon with his run at Royal Ascot,” he said. “If we'd got a clearer run in France, we would have known more going into Ascot so we went there just learning about him. There's every chance he'll progress. We think, as he's only really had the one proper run this season, that there is more to come.”

According to Appleby, the one thing that is in no doubt heading to this important clash is Notable Speech's wellbeing. “I think he looks a million dollars and I will be disappointed if you don't like the way he looks on Wednesday,” he said. “Nothing came out in the wash after Ascot, the vet did all the checks and nothing came of it. It was one of those strange races to watch to be fair and the way the race was run, it was always going to be very hard from where we were. You can spot horses lengths in maidens and handicaps, but you can't spot Group 1 horses lengths round Ascot at that level and we were always having to chase.”

“We gave him a bit of a break and from there on he hasn't missed a beat,” he added. “I couldn't have faulted him the way he went into Ascot, but his work has been very good at home again and he is showing all the right signs. He's showing the signs of what we see on the racetrack–his speed, he's got an electric turn of foot and he's been showing us that over the last few weeks. I'm looking forward to it.”

How Much of a Facteur is the Cheval?

Team Valor International and Gary Barber's Facteur Cheval (Ire) (Ribchester {Ire}) caught a few by surprise with his notable effort behind Paddington (GB) (Siyouni {Fr}) in this on heavy ground 12 months ago, but had firmly established himself as a genuine top-flight runner by the time he was winning the G1 Dubai Turf in March. Paying the price for chasing his over-exuberant compatriot Big Rock (Fr) (Rock Of Gibraltar {Ire}) up the centre of the track in Royal Ascot's G1 Queen Anne Stakes, he should be a different proposition back here but has crack 3-year-olds to tackle once again.

On the comeback trail when third in the Queen Anne, Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum's talented Maljoom (Ire) (Caravaggio) should already be a Group 1 winner having endured ill fortune in the 2022 G1 St James's Palace Stakes. Despite that, he would be readily discounted here were it not for the fact that William Haggas is prepared to try him against the best and has fitted blinkers for the first time.

“We are putting a pair of half-cup blinkers on him. He worked in them last week and he impressed me,” Haggas explained. “They are not there to frighten him, but they will help his concentration. He's going to find it tough against the three-year-olds, but he's getting his confidence back and he's in really good shape. I hope the ground continues to dry out, as the faster the better for him. I think he'll be competitive.”

More Goodwood Delight…

Also at Goodwood on Wednesday are two Group 3 contests in the Molecomb Stakes for 2-year-olds over five furlongs and the Oak Tree Stakes for fillies and mares over seven. The Molecomb sees Wathnan Racing's Listed Dragon Stakes winner Aesterius (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}) take on Rockcliffe Stud's Listed Empress Stakes winner and G2 Prix Robert Papin third Celandine (GB) (Kingman {GB}), with Victorious Racing's impressive course-and-distance winner Soldier's Heart (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}) an intriguing candidate as the 425,000gns top-priced colt at Tattersalls October Book 2.

Wathnan's European racing adviser Richard Brown said of Aesterius, “We were delighted with him at Sandown and I think he has plenty of speed, so we're sticking at five furlongs. It's a big field, so we're going to need some luck, but he's a straightforward horse with a great temperament–he has a very relaxed demeanour which will stand him in good stead.”

Trainer Ed Walker said of Celandine, “She's in flying form and is taking her racing unbelievably well. She seems to be getting bigger and better and stronger with it. She's been busy, but she looks a proper two-year-old and I think coming back in trip will be a benefit.”

In the Oak Tree, Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum's G1 Falmouth Stakes runner-up Jabaara (Ire) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}) joins battle with Sangster and Babington's G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches runner-up Kathmandu (Ire) (Showcasing {GB}), with the lurker perhaps being Valmont's Stop The Cavalry (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}). She impressed when making a successful winning return in a Chester earlier this month and it is interesting that Ralph Beckett is prepared to take this leap with her.

Trainer Roger Varian said of Jabaara, “She's in good form and I think she will like the test of the Oak Tree. She is drawn a bit wide, which is a slight negative, but I think she is in good condition and she's in good order, so hopefully she will put in another strong performance.”