TDN Launches Prediction Market

The TDN has launched a prediction market, where voters “bet” on the outcomes of questions with virtual money and earn real money with their correct predictions to be donated to charity.

The market was the idea of TDN writer J. N. Campbell.

Several times a week, the TDN will pose a question in the TDN, on our website in a story post, and on social media, asking voters to predict the outcome of a particular story.

We are using the platform Manifold, profiled in a New York Times story, The Wager That Betting Can Change the World, on Oct. 8.

The story was on prediction markets, online sites where people can wager on future events. Manifold operates strictly with play-money, which they call mana. People making correct bets are paid off in mana, which they can use to continue to “bet” on other questions or convert into a charitable donation. If your preferred charity isn't already listed on Manifold, you may request that it be added.

The general concept of prediction markets is that the general public's opinion is a more accurate predictor of what will happen than any expert prognosticators. “Prediction markets, they believe, offer a better way to search for truth–rewarding those who are good at forecasting by allowing them to make money off those who are bad at it, while settling on the facts in an unbiased way,” said the Times.

First up is our poll in today's HISA-Fifth Circuit story by Dan Ross. The question is: Will the Fifth Circuit Rule in Favor of HISA in its pending decision?

In our Darley stud fee announcement, we ask, “Will Cody's Wish Go Out With a Win in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile?”

To vote, simply click on the question above, or the poll graphic in the story, sign up on Manifold for free, and vote. You are given 500 mana to get started, the equivalent of a $5 donation to charity. You may bet as much or as little mana as you choose on the story. Once you have signed up, you may also create your own questions for others to vote on, or vote on any of the non-TDN-related questions on the site.

The TDN has added 11 popular racing charities to the Manifold site: New Vocations, Stable Recovery, the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation, Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, Old Friends, New York Racetrack Chaplaincy, Belmont Child Care Association, Thoroughbred Charities of America, The Jockey Club Safety Net Foundation, the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation. Users wishing to use their mana to donate to different organizations may add them to the site as well.

Questions? Email suefinley@thetdn.com.